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Will the good times ever return?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,153 ✭✭✭Hyperbollix


    Interesting thread. Some look at "good times" as not necessarily connected with material wealth or social mobility and more to do with notions of 1980's/1990's Ireland, when we got out from under the church, became a more open society, did well in the soccer, the North got sorted out etc etc

    Others look at it purely from the point of view of material wealth. We were piss poor 40 years ago. Now, the children of people who were scrapping by in the 70's and 80's are today earning big moolah, driving SUV's and enjoying several foreign trips a year.

    I'd zoom out and look at the big picture. Will we see increased political instability in the world in the decades ahead due to misinformation, a collapse of trust in institutions, corporate influence in politics and the rise of non western superpowers who have their own ideas on how the world should be run? Yes

    Is social media and tech in general going to continue to atomize society? Will more countries around the globe fall prey to populism and easy solutions to difficult questions.... Yes, probably

    Will climate change bite us hard on the arse in the coming decades, completely changing the relatively abundant lifestyle we enjoy today? Will climate migration into Europe become a huge problem in the short to medium term? Yes

    Will all of the above lead to changes in EU policy which will tighten up on de facto tax havens like Ireland which may result in the golden goose of FDI taking flight from Ireland?........... stranger things have happened

    If the question is will be return to that late 80's to mid 2000's period which combined Fukuyama's end of history arguement, with the increased peace, prosperity and openness we experienced at home, then I think the answer is no. That was a time and a place borne of particular circumstance and we are far far removed from that time and place now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,038 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    I think part of the problem with these discussions though is that (1) we can always be more granular about the problems face right now and (2) those problems have uncertain outcomes.

    The advantage that the 'good old days' have is that we tend to categorise them as the era of something, rather than actually remembering all the myriads of problems that existed back then. The other advantage we have is that those problems worked out in the end, so to speak. The Cold War and the threat of nuclear annihilation was an long-present thematic backdrop to the second half of the 20th century — we know now that it didn't go that way, but we didn't know it back then.

    Another example is technology. The rise of AI chatbots and the uncertainty they create has masked the fact that we have lived through technological uncertainties before. As far back as the Luddites smashed up steam engines out of fear they would make human workers redundant, to the more recent times of how digitalisation and the rise of the computer and robot age have fundamentally altered the way humans live, do business and manufacture stuff, such uncertainties are not new — many of them have simply passed by or become normalised now that we almost forget they were ever uncertainties at all.

    I think part of how you deal with the uncertainties of today is to remember that uncertainty has always been existent — and not to be lulled into the false sense that just because the problems of the past 'worked out in the end' or have passed by or become a normalised part of our lives, that somehow the past was better.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    It wasn't "people" it was Govts, and many of these problems didn't start in the 90s. They started selling off council houses in the 1970s for example.

    Back then was a pattern of FF govt giving tax breaks and creating debt to get into and stay in power. FG used to get in and balance the books, but it wasn't popular. After the crash and FF were out, FG started doing what FF did in the past. So now these no difference between them. The opposition parties should have been the counter for this but they were all useless.

    You could blame people for the "govt" of the day. But then we could blame todays "people" for keeping FG in power.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    People think the problems of today didn't exist in the past so therefore it was better.

    Past just had different problems. Usually worse most of the time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,793 ✭✭✭✭maccored


    lifes what you make it and its for living now. no point look back to a past that wasnt as rosey as its remembered as.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,985 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    Governments are voted in by people. There was very a much a "Let the good times role attitude" among the electorate as opposed to a "this won't last forever" type attitude. Bertie himself said this.

    And I do 100% think it's an attitude thing. People I know in their late 40's/50's/60's who'd have been in and around their 20's in the 1990's have not had a change in attitude. Indeed those in their late 40's/50's are still buying properties to rent out that they just don't need to. Most of them are very well off and/or are sitting on a DB pensions waiting for retirement and what not. They still Vote FF/FG and they don't care about "common good". They use phrases like "make hay while the sun shines" or "Business is Business" to justify accumulation of wealth quest they are on.

    I've a very good Job, I'm 40 in a few weeks and I've a good bit of savings, I could easily buy a second or even third house and rent it out but I'm not going to cause that's a dick move. I don't need the extra money I'm grand the way I am. My oul lad is in his 60's and he just does not get why I'm not buying up houses to rent. I've given up explaining it to him.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,183 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    There's nothing immoral in buying houses to rent, that's a crazy way of looking at the housing market.


    The more people invest in property the more houses will get built. If the only people who bought houses were owner occupiers there'd be far fewer houses in Ireland. Money being invested in property means more property being built, this is as basic as saying water is wet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,985 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    ...this is actually a global problem, we ve all followed each other into a blackhole, in regards housing, and we re all starting to experience the same problems, i.e. a serious shortage of housing, and hyper inflated prices, this approach has completely collapsed, and we havent actually accepted it yet.....

    I'd agree with you to an extent, but I think lack of Public Infra projects in the 90's and diminishing middle class have exasperated the problem in Ireland and created a blackhole within a blackhole so to speak.

    Ireland is on the verge of becoming a city state at this stage, 40% of the total population is based in and around County Dublin. The infra to support that volume of people just isn't there. In the 90's and 00's the population demographic was a lot more spread out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    The good times are different for different people. For some the 80's were good (e.g. PS workers in stable employment), for others there were no jobs. The OP mentioned the tech bubble in the 90's-2001 or so. I came out of college at the end of this, it wasn't easy to find a job at that time, especially without experience.

    The housing bubble period here benefited those in areas related to housing and the state economy, e.g. builders, PS workers were getting large raises etc. It was a rubbish time for software developers/tech workers in my opinion (salaries were actually quite low at that time). Then with the collapse everything changed again. Suddenly IT became one of the areas to be in. Personally, this was the best period for me. My rent dropped about 40% in 2009 as there were so many places for rent in the same building. I bought a house early 2013, there wasn't much on the market but there weren't too many people looking either. For a lot of people this would have been the worst time, but like the 80's, if you were in stable well paying employment there were a lot of opportunities.

    Overall the "good times" are relative and occur at different times for different sectors. It basically boils down to when you are doing better than others.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,342 ✭✭✭yagan


    I agree that there's nothing wrong with renting a house out, but when it in itself becomes a driving force in the national housing stock then you end up with the current shortages and young people considering with jobs considering emigration just to have their own place as adults. A well regulated housing market shouldn't need first time buyers grants, it only shows that there's a game of catch up underway.

    FF and FG have essentially alienated another generation. The only difference is in the past as another poster said it was mostly Fianna Fail, but now they've teamed up chasing homeowners and landlords who've done well off property appreciation.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,985 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    People buy houses to rent because it's a safe bet on making a lot of money, but you also need a lot of money to get started. (deposit and what not)

    The reason you can make so much money is because there is someone to exploit, not do business with.

    They have something you "want" and you have something they "need".

    Only 14% of people renting are renting by choice, most want to buy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,985 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    Exactly!

    No one is saying you can't make money of renting, but this idea of getting someone else to pay off your mortgage and covering the income tax you owe as a result of rent payments is nuts!

    Regulation is key. We need strong and easily enforceable regulations around the rental sector.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,342 ✭✭✭yagan


    I think that horse has already bolted, the housing mismatches are already in place. We knew that when the government joined with investment funds in outbidding homebuyers in that Newbridge sale.

    In promoting successive property speculation tax incentives (section 23 of the Bertie era comes to mind) the government now has to step in to house working people who don't have the spending power of pension funds.

    All this of course could go into quick reverse if a few major international pension start collapsing. The demographics of the western economies would suggest that they're already underfunded, but those losses haven't been matched to market yet, or at least like a vampire they're been let suck exorbinate rent of younger generations.

    It is intergenerational theft, but the pyramid sales people have probably already moved onto other markets, I mean younger victims.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    You are looking at this backwards. Your issue is supply. If there was enough supply, as was in the past, and you do what you wanted you wouldn't care about someone else's rentals, income tax or mortgages. Landlords have nothing to do with supply and demand.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    Bertie was deflecting blame (he's not called the Teflon Taoiseach for nothing) when it was his and his party that created an overheating economy then poured fuel on it until it imploded.

    TBH you are the "people" keeping it going today. It's not someone else. Its you.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,342 ✭✭✭yagan


    We're only now getting councils given real power to take over vacant properties, albeit first on safety grounds.

    The last census showed high rates of vacancy in many counties, the rate in county Clare was 10% and that's not counting holiday homes.

    Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have never wanted to manage develop, they just wanted to maximise rental and speculation returns. They only reacted to lawlessness in Dublin city centre when a tourist was attacked, yet as I can personally attest that level of shiite has been happening there since before the pandemic.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    No different to having a job or a business and using that to pay off your mortgage.

    We've had two decadesof constant new regulations. At what point will you realise thats not the issue.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,342 ✭✭✭yagan


    Another example of the overall absence of management. I won't be surprised if a lot of those empties are so because they're the dumping grounds.

    I saw it first hand how developers were able to parcel out to distant sites their social housing commitments. The creations of poverty sumps were a direct consequence of such government acquiescence.

    Prioritizing developer profits leaves us paying for the iniquities. It's easiest to blame the poor, but they didn't design their environment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    It's about outsourcing the problem so the Govt can disassociate itself.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,985 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    You're most likely exploiting someone though. Most people don't want to rent, but have no choice but to. Like a Mortgage is cheaper than rent as things stand at the moment. The deposit and approval is the killer.... but that's ok... "Business is Business" after all. Ironic considering most landlords don't even have a Ltd company.

    The regulations we've have are crap, to light touch and difficult to enforce/monitor.

    The census data says there were 166k empty properties in Ireland with 37k in Dublin. It is not a supply/demand issue. People and investment funds are just sitting on them.

    This issue is 30 years in the making, hence it will probably take 30 years to resolve. If they start making a real effort to fix things slowly, progressively and sustainably then nobody will have their nose put out much at all (I'm not for one moment suggesting they pull the rug from under landlords and investment funds over night)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,520 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    Why do you think people leave properties empty?

    I move somewhere to work for 6 months. Should I buy and sell a property every time I move?

    If renting is exploitation, then all goods and services are exploitation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,342 ✭✭✭yagan


    I've no problem with people buying multiple properties as long as they're taxed as non principle residency and subject to an asset appreciation tax if they're left unutilised.

    Empty residences left untaxed means underfunding for local services.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Which taxes on housing funding which services would be underfunded?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,342 ✭✭✭yagan


    If a property sits vacant it still benefits from all surrounding public works. At least now councils have the power to take over abandoned properties.

    If property is been held empty/unused solely for its asset appreciation then it must be taxed as a non residential/commercial liability in the public domain.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,665 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    How does a property benefit from public works?

    Surely it's the people in the property who benefit?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,342 ✭✭✭yagan


    What people?

    I was only talking about utilised, empty and abandoned property.

    Can you point out in my posts that you responded to where I was mentioned utilised property?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    So you can't identify any specific services or taxes.

    The politicians/govt have sold you the idea of vacant private housing to deflect from the vacant public housing and lack of social housing. You've taken that bait, hook line and sinker.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    You'd have to first explain what tax funded services are being used by an unused building.



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