Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Who wants to live in Clay Farm... not me.

Either its a view of a noisy substation, or the local dump.

The record lows are due to close to a decade of not building houses due to prices being perceived as "too low". Ironically if those in mortgage arrears had been repossessed and resold, prices would have been even lower in the post crash era, and it would have taken even longer for new house building to start up again.

We have a housing shortage - we need more houses built or vacant dwellings renovated. Houses that are occupied already be they rental, mortgage or mortgage arrears are of no use to solving this crisis, either from a social perspective or a market one.

You’ve said 90k multiple times now. It’s a gross exaggeration of the issue. Restructured loans are indeed captured in the arrears data as I expected and cannot be added to arrears like you are doing.

https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/statistical-publications/behind-the-data/understanding-long-term-mortgage-arrears-in-ireland#:~:text=Long%2Dterm%20arrears%20are%20defined,720%20days%20(two%20years).

This detailed data clearly shows that almost everyone under 2 years in arrears is making payments and engaging with their lenders (c.99%). Is the issue really with people who’ve hit hard times and are working to catch up on payments and engaging with their bank to do so? Or is it the blatant cases of no mortgage payments for years and no intention to do so that we all have issue with? I assume it’s the latter. This study identifies 2 years as the point at which accounts are significantly more likely to be no longer engaging.

There are 27k cases over two years in arrears in this study. Of those 27k cases, only 33% have made no payment in the previous 6 months, 9000 loans. The number of cases that could have been legitimately chased for eviction back in 2020 between 9k and 27k

These figures are from 2020, from which time overall arrears have dropped a further 25%. So between 7k and and 20k.

You’ve massively overestimated the current issue by many multiples unless you want to start chasing genuine cases who have a chance to make good if appropriate arrangements are put in place for them. You would get close to no support for chasing those people.

The game of musical chairs in housing only works so long as there is sufficient stock to allow people to sell, buy, move.

Once stock levels fall below a certain threshold the secondary market stops functioning. The solution is more property "injected" into the market, I.e through new builds. It is not unlike the role of QE in markets in this regard, QE injects liquidity to keep things turning over and changing hands. People sitting on cash is bad for economy, hence QE. People sitting on proeprty is bad for housing market, hence more new builds.

That's a bit unfair on poor old Clay Farm! :) I don't live there, but not far off, up the road in Stepaside, and walk along the side of the Clay Farm development very often on their Greenway to the Luas. There is no view of a dump; the old dump there was covered over years ago and is now simply rolling green hills and soon-to-be public parks. There is a recycling park further down the Ballyogan Road alright, that you can't see from Clay Farm I wager. The substation is noisy for sure, but I bet any of those homes close enough to see or hear it would grow accustomed to it very quickly. The 'eco park' within Clay Farm is really, really nice, something that would be exceptional in other large-scale developments and many times nicer than the boring square playing greens within old-school housing estates.

Someone mentioned the biggest drawback by far of Clay Farm; the other side of the Ballyogan Road and all that comes with a large concentration of council housing. But the development is not grim, not by a long shot. I'd be far more worried about Cherrywood, but you know what; I drove with my family to the new Tully Park and Playground there on Friday for the first time, and it is the nicest playground I've seen in Ireland! The kids growing up within a walk of there are so lucky!

The Green Luas means that the likes of Clay Farm and Cherrywood are actually better connected to the city centre than many, many established areas within the M50, and that's the primary reason for the homes' popularity. I definitely think a new home in Clay Farm offers great relative value to most 2nd hand homes in places like Rathfarnham, Churchtown, Terenure, Ballinteer.

ECB rates up again today. How long do people reckon before the banks start raising rates again?

Very rural Co Limerick former 1 off 70's built council bungalow, with basic renovation, would need one of those dishes to get patchy Internet

My partner a little shocked by the asking price.

Sold in 4 days at 15% above asking

Investors are probably confident that the government will keep them propped up and bailed out even if things hit a speedbump

Or it might even be public money getting fired in

If you could buy the house in cash, in theory prices should increase a lot once rates inevitably fall

People forget that current mortgage rates are very close to historic lows and one could argue far too low for an economy like Ireland.

Our mortgage rates should be closer to, if not ahead of the USA

More demand side policy interventions being considered by the Govt to further distort the market. Minister O'Brien considering extending to shared equity scheme to help buyers purchase a decreasing supply of 2nd hand homes.