Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I guarantee you that governments are prepared for different outcomes and that's one of them. You might not like it but it doesn't matter.

What evidence is there that there is any prospect of Russia being evicted from all the lands it has taken?

Ukraine has made small territorial gains - we are literally talking a couple of villages and kms of fields that can be counted on one hand. Remind me how much Ukranian land in square kms Russia holds? Compare the two.

Take the emotion out of it and then maybe you'll understand the actual situation which I can't see as anything other than grim.

If I put up a Russian graphic of what they say Ukranian losses are you would rightly say I was spreading propaganda.

Yet these figures go up all over social media, from Ukranian propagandists mostly, and people just accept them.

The Kiev Independent, for example, tried to claim a couple of days a go that 260 000 Russian troops had been killed in the conflict. It's so absurd that pro-Ukranian accounts were basically saying - "yeah the losses are big but this just looks stupid"

I don't believe any of this for a moment. I think Russia has taken large losses, I can well believe that but nowhere near the type of mindless figures being thrown around from certain quarters.

Speaking of evidence there Kermit. Did you ever furnish us with the evidence that "Kupyansk is about to fall"?

Or is providing evidence a standard that only the rest of us bright eyed plebs have to adhere to?

It's the double standard that all the misery merchants on this thread hold everyone but themselves to. For most whom are positive but realistic about Ukraines chances anything that isn't backed to the hilt with evidence, reasoning and links are laughed at by the handful of joyless contrarians.

But for yourselves, and you know who you are, just a single badly written alarmist CNN article will do. Even when the article itself doesn't reinforce the title. And then ye throw your toys out of the pram and start moving goalposts, and b*tching and moaning that there's some sort of general unreasonableness going on. Truly a sight to behold if it weren't so pathetic.

If your Russian graphic is from the Russian MOD then yes, it's propganda.

However, if you look at visually confirmed loses, you can see quite an uptick on Russian losses.

How can the counteroffensive being failing if Russian visually confirmed losses are so high?

The gap just keeps growing.

Specific to the counteroffensive:

Again the gap keeps growing.

We can debate the official figures of Russian losses released by Ukraine. I think many, if not all agree they can't be confirmed. However the trend is what to look at, the trend of figures Ukraine releases match the trend of visually confirmed losses Russia have suffered.

I know Russian losses are considerably more extensive than Ukraine's. Every loss for Ukraine, whether personel or equipment, is a bigger proportionate loss for them than for Russia. It's just numbers. Russia has a lot more.

In here you point out simple facts and the usual suspects (most of whom couldn't point Ukraine out on a map prior to the war) get all emotional and accuse you of being pro-Russian.

Rinse repeat.

Ukraine had begun evacuating Kupyansk and Russia apparently has in excess of 100,000 troops on that axis which is why it's a reasonable assumption the town would fall more quickly.

For whatever reason Russia doesn't appear to have made a move there nor have they been pushed back. I have no idea why but as I say it's still in a precarious situation if those figures on soldiers and equipment on the Russian side are true.

I don't know. It's hard to understand what's the malfunction in the Russian military. You would think on paper it's an easy take. Maybe they are waiting until in to the Autumn for some reason. I have no idea. They've screwed up so much it's hard to know whether it's incompetence or a plan.

I don't think they have intention of breaking out from the territories they have taken. The evidence would appear to back this up for the last 12 months. There has been no serious attempt from Russia to break out of these regions despite the fact they have serious numerical advantage.

I don't think Putin wants all of Ukraine. Too much of a headache controlling a population that wants nothing to do with you. The regions with large ethnic Russian populations which are the territories they now hold are another matter.

Funny that, I was about to congratulate you on your superb impression of her.

Putin wants all of Ukraine to the Carpathian Mountains. He also wants Belarus and Moldova. And when he achieves that and draws breath he’ll start agitating in the Baltics and probably put a sort of iron curtain between himself and Poland at the very least.

The fact that he is currently bogged down a thousand miles east of those objectives with little hope of any sort of rapid advance and shocking level of attrition to just hold those meagre incursions is a geopolitical disaster for Russia overall.

The 2022 Russian/Ukraine war has been a military failure for Russia. It’s hard to see the overall historical context when you’re living in real time. But this was supposed to be a re-birth of the old Russian empire. This was supposed to put the boundaries of Russia back into the heart of Central Europe like it was in the 19 th and 20th centuries.

The history books when they are written will show that in 2022 Russia advanced into territory that they already had a foothold in since 2014 and went little further. Such meagre territorial progress after almost 2 years of savage fighting is essentially a defeat in relation to the lofty ambitions that drove this invasion.

Kermit, I would like to know your take in relation to the following - assuming it’s all happening / part off the UKr strategy:-

(1) that Ukr’s effort re carrying out offensive will speed up once the first very heavily mined line of defence is removed eg a km a day might become 5 km a day and progressing to 10 km a day when UKr reaches the third line of defence.

(2) UKr bombing the Ru positions behind the defence lines disrupting railway tracks , road supply routes, army accommodation, groups of soldiers, , ammunition storage facilities, air strips, etc, etc, etc, etc. all with a view to cutting off supply lines and disrupting/slowing down supply of all services and generally making nowhere is safe for any army/army related vehicle in the occupied territory

(3) Bombing targets in Russia itself which will spread / stretch The Ru army effort to protect itself ie widen the front of the war. Also Russian pop will get to know that there is some kind of a war going on And that it is coming to their front door and they don’t like it. It puts Putin wondering where else will Ukr/ opposition inside Russia/ maybe even Putin himself attack and will the bombs get more frequent /bigger

(4) All wars are draining on finances and most especially is this one on Russia - not only because of the actual cost to finance the war but the effect the sanctions are having on reduction of needed supplies, increased cost of same if they get through, questionable quality if imports and major constraints on exports. It’s also costing Ukr BUT it has very, very serious backers

are you saying that all of the above is for Naught/ waisted effort and that Ru will hold on to most/all of what it currently occupies bar a few Km of a gain by Ukr?????????

The role of that poster, either by intention or as a result of exposure to whatever pro-Russian sites they enjoy, is to seed doubt. The point is to undermine any confidence the Western World may have in Ukraine, and to big up the Russian Federation as a monolithic unstoppable force.

But we’ve been paying attention. We know how spent the Russians are. We know how badly the Ukrainians want victory, and the herculean efforts they’ve put in so far and will continue to put in with a NATO supply chain at their back.

Like I said before, watch out for these posters and this kind of post. These protests that Ukraine must stop and sue for peace will increase with the desperation of the Russians themselves.

Really?

Let's see.

Russia attacked Ukraine on three fronts in February 2022. They made a beeline for Kyiv. The objective was clearly to rapidly overwhelm the country, take the capital, replace the government, and bring the country back into Russian vassaldom, never to break free again.

What was Ukraine's objective? Prevent this. Few people gave them a realistic long term shot of doing so, and yet here we are. The Kyiv government remains in tact. An overwhelming proportion of Ukrainian territory remains under Kyiv's control. If you don't believe me, go check a map of the current frontlines and work out the percentages for yourself.

If Putin were to genuinely settle for what Russia currently occupies, he would regard it as an abject failure. Some reality for the realist.