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Milk Price III

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Comments

  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,580 Mod ✭✭✭✭K.G.


    If you can come out of the dips without outstanding bills and eroding your position then you ll make real money in the upswing.we had a serious run in milking the last while but the next 12 months is about protecting your"wealth"without compromising the potential in the future.for whats its worth the other thing to remember here it's not just milking heading into a s##tstorm, i believe the world economy is in trouble



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 657 ✭✭✭Jack98


    If derogation was to go you’d see the industrialisation of dairy farming which would suit processors down to the ground large herds in the hundreds in over their necks so they won’t be able to pull the plug and will have to put up with whatever bs the processors throw at them. We could be seeing the last generation of family farms if a lot of what’s mounting against the dairy industry comes to pass.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,577 ✭✭✭Mooooo


    K.G is right, if you can get thru a down turn and keep things ticking over you will be well set up in next cycle.

    Tbh tho while a downturn in whole economy is likely coming and prob needed to help correct costs in everything it could be a strange one where it could be a recession with full employment and the correction to costs may not come as fast as others.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,592 ✭✭✭older by the day


    It's very hard to judge. The country has a record money over budget. Every one we know has gone on foreign holidays and the amount of fresh cars on the road is mad. I pick up the kids in my old Hilux and I'm surrounded by 3l BMW jeeps. Myself and my wife laugh wondering where we are going wrong. An electrician charged me 200 euro for a two and half hours work and I was lucky he came. He is ran off his feet with new houses. A lot with foreign owners here in West cork. I can't see a downturn only for farmers



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,262 ✭✭✭jaymla627


    The proverbial hits the fan when people start coming of fixed rate mortgages at say 4% and might end up at 7%

    At 4% your 300k mortgage with 20 years left is manageable for a 2 income household with a bit to spare for the hp on the bmw jeep at 7% its lights out for alot of people



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 856 ✭✭✭staples7


    ….

    Post edited by staples7 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,811 ✭✭✭✭mahoney_j


    Anyone with a milk flex loan should be looking at the bank nterest now been charged ….over 7.5% really taking the good out of it ….I’ve just refinanced my balance with dairy flex from bank of Ireland at 4.6% ….considerable saving



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 4,524 Mod ✭✭✭✭Siamsa Sessions


    Half-related: the Brexit loan scheme where interest was 3.5% has closed.

    Does anyone know if it might open again?

    Trading as Sullivan’s Farm on YouTube



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,123 ✭✭✭yosemitesam1


    It's a dangerous game to play if it means sinking deeper into debt.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,262 ✭✭✭jaymla627


    How do you get the dairy flex loan is it fixed at 4.96, the boi rep I was chatting on the phone was 7% variable unsecured was looking to refinance my remaining milk-flex loans like yourself, and asked could I fix the 7% and the answer was no



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,713 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    200 for two and a half hours is not off the wall. The it he lost 20-30 minutes getting to you from another job and has to go to the next job soon reality your job is a 2.5 hour job.

    He has his public liability and his certificates, an average trades person will list 2.3 days for training every year, he has to cover his holidays and bank holidays. Add in his fixed costs of his van, tools and diesel. I less you paid cash there is nearly 25 euro in vat out if that 200

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,923 ✭✭✭straight


    Farmers wouldn't be complaining if they got that rate. All that the tradesman supplies is the van, skills and a bit of equipment. Farmers have millions invested.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,592 ✭✭✭older by the day


    I was happy to get him. We were chatting about a downturn soon. I was saying a downturn in farming but most of the economy is flying



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,662 ✭✭✭Dunedin


    Equates to €2600 per week (allowing for 30 minutes travel time) and €120k per year allowing for 46 weeks per year. Fixed costs are all tax deductible. Not bad money if ya can get it.

    to put in context, i got my house wired in 2010 for €100 day - (€500 week/€23,000 per year).

    the boom is back…..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,424 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    This is a good comment. Savings are at record levels and plenty of people still have plenty of money to keep the economy purring.

    You wont see any price crashes anytime soon because those that are spending will keep doing so.

    Those that arent spending make no difference, because they arent spending today.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,057 ✭✭✭Injuryprone


    Comparing prices to the depths of the recession isn't much of a context either



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,713 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    For larger jobs he will not charge those rates. I presume form @older by the day that the electrician provide no materials.

    However he is a sole trader and has to collect his fees not everyone will pay going out the gate and he will probably have a couple of thousand K in bad debts every year. His van is probably costing him 300+/ week between fuel, replacement cost tax insurance and maintenance cost.

    Tools and test gear 1.5k/ year, he will spend 3-4 hours a week in an electrical providers or travelling to and from them. He accountant will have to do a vat return as well as normal accounts. He will spend on average an hour +a week pricing jobs and 1-2 dealing with appointments, sorting jobs and materials. An interesting one or RECI certificate's I think they are from about 8-50 euro depending on the certificates and his RECI registration is about 500/ year. Add in his public liability another 500-1k

    In reality to get 40-45 billable hours he will work 60+. Ya he probably have 80k+ of profit or maybe a bit with it but it's not the gravy train you think it is.

    Add to that he probably had 7-8 bad years from 2009-2016/17 especially if operating in Rural Ireland.

    When I built my house in 1991 self employed trades were 300 pounds/ week (that was punts so about 380 euro) and that was for cash.

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,923 ✭✭✭straight


    Would you say he'd be better off to sell the van and equipment and go away and buy a farm and try a bit of beef farming instead....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,592 ✭✭✭older by the day


    It's a van he carries to work. About 20 miles from him, he's not driving a NASA rocket. Your gas, more luck to him for earning a good wage. How are you so concerned with his costs and you keep telling us we should be able to produce milk for 25c/L or was it 18cent you said at one stage



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,500 ✭✭✭Grueller


    Most beef farmers haven't bought their farms either to be fair.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,923 ✭✭✭straight




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,262 ✭✭✭jaymla627


    Done a interesting calculation this morning on what average milk price per cent will be for us in 2023, from January to July I've averaged 47 cent a litre, at 4.32% bf and 3.42pr, looking ahead if milk price stays above 32 cent from Aug to dec, if similar liters and solids are done in 23 as 22, average milk price here will be circa 44 cent a litre.....

    Its next year where the real pinch point is going to be on a vast majority of farms, and will leave cashflows in bits if milk prices don't rebound by summer 24



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,713 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Nothing wrong with buying a beef farm if you can afford it and run it as a business.

    I never worry about how another man earns his living. By the sound of it he is not self employed but has a full-time jobb as well. Impossible to get trads at present. I know a few trades people ( daughter boyfriend is similar and in one as well) that have gone into factories in Limerick as ordinary factory workers. Nephew is with one of the Telco"s as an electrician. All earn 50k+ with pension and HI. 20+ days holidays and another ten BH's off or working in the wet or cold.

    Never try to wear another man's boots.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,920 ✭✭✭green daries




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,923 ✭✭✭straight


    Never said there was. Just that you claim to have bought a beef farm and you are "intrinsically profitable" but you seem to think the electrician is just getting by. That is all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,337 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    200 quid for 2.5 hours work in an environment where there is no shortage of jobs. i.e. it wouldn't be that difficult to squeeze in 10 such jobs per week. That has you up to about 100k a year gross and you'd be your own boss. You'd pay for a lot of expenses before you'd be down at the average wage.

    Presumably when these lads go to be factory workers that they are also entitled to bill the factory extra for the car that brings them to work?

    (You can lease a van for about 300 quid a month which I think includes tax and maintenance but that is besides the point. )

    Post edited by Donald Trump on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,445 ✭✭✭Tonynewholland


    A lot of young people don't want the responsibility of being self-employed. They are choosing factory work instead even when taking home less money but way more time off. I know a good few tradesmen in factories who won't even do a few jobs for cash after work.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,218 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    It is hard to justify beef farming for an awful lot of lads on places that they own never mind renting or even buying.


    Family history, personal expectations of the place, love of the whole thing.


    The cheques in are big, the cheques out are big, the remains are not.


    Nothing wrong with buying land to beef farm but no one should pretend it is a good use of the land or money.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,920 ✭✭✭green daries




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,920 ✭✭✭green daries


    Not a dig genuine question why even allowing for accountants advise . Is there so many businesses Investing into agricultural land 🤔. Imo its complete madness



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