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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,777 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Firstly, the Childrens hospital has nothing to do with residential construction.

    That issue is due to irelands faulty tendering system whereby lowest bidder basically wins even if they knowingly omit large parts of costings. They can then add more and more additional costs after the contract has been awarded. It happens all over the country, every LA has experienced it multiple times, but only the NCH is reported on as it is an example on the big scale.

    As for modular housing - how in the hell would it reduce developer profits if it is cheaper in both labour and materials? If developers are making huge profits right now (they are not), then switching to cheaper methods at same sale prices would mean way higher profits. There is no reason for them not to build modular apartments except that it is not viable, and the costs do not add up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,139 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Lending limits going to 4 times, State stepping in to buy apartments at top dollar, State stepping in to buy over priced houses for social housing outbiding the private joe.

    We must be some idiots that the politicians implementing these idiotic policies think we believe their lies saying that they want to make housing affordable.

    I knew deep inside in my gut, and I think most people here knew that the minute things started to go south even slightly the state with their big corporate tax purse would step in and effectively bail these developers out and prop the **** show up. There is something very wrong and stinking here, really stinking.

    Some free market there.



  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Out of interest, does anyone benefit from the State buying up properties for social housing?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,163 ✭✭✭lordleitrim




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The big beneficiaries are the sectors represented by the dominant lobbyists.

    Once upon a time lobbying was identified as a key contributing factor in bankrupting this nation.

    Social tenants are not beneficiaries as at the price paid, we can never solve the problem for them and make it harder for every level of participant attempting to secure housing



  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Of course social tenants are beneficiaries, it just doesn’t suit the narrative to acknowledge it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Potential and serving Social tennants are a grouping/sector. More and more are ending up in emergency accomodation and this will worsen as long as state is paying maximum price for accomodation

    It will have a similar effect on all other categories of renters



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,854 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Yes, at the expense of everyone that works in an average or above salaried job and therefore doesnt qualify for social housing.

    Despite the fact that those disqualified folks are the ones that pay the taxes to the govt, whom in turn use their tax revenue to outbid the contributors on a property and then give the property to someone that doesnt work or works on a low income.

    Social housing needs to be for everyone, not just the no and low paid.

    So that it enables mixed developments and people on higher incomes should be able to purchase within those social housing schemes, with the same ownership opportunity afforded to those earning the current social welfare income thresholds.

    Homes for sale/part ownership should at least represent a portion of the social housing stock, to encourage home ownership for all.



  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    That “grouping”, are tens of thousands of people with no hope of ever owning a home, and little prospect of being able to pay rent. You may not like the State competing with buyers for housing, but most of us see it as being necessary to avoid tens of thousands of people being homeless. Personally I believe it is a snobbiness, and a lack of empathy to say, people should be able to buy those houses, and the Government should find another way of dealing with social tenants, right now there is no other way, if social housing wasn’t being provided, todays homeless figures would look good.

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Last week the 2021 price breakdown for a category b apartment in Sanford was posted. The margin at that time was 11%. Cairn are reporting a margin achieved of 21% and rising in their latest results. One can safely deduct that government policy is the single biggest factor in house price inflation over the last 2 years. That's some achievement considering what has transpired for inflation in that short period of time



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,777 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    21% based on primarily houses though from cairn, not apartments?



  • Posts: 573 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Its a catch 22, if there is not a reasonable profit to be made on building houses and apartments who is going to continue building them? Most sustainable businesses aim for margins of 30% while the ultra successful aim for margins of 40-50%.

    We have an issue currently with supply, the only way to fix that is if the state builds for cost or we make the market more attractive for developers. The state don't want to get into the business of building so it will have to be the latter.

    We could lower the cost of building buy putting caps on wages, land, reducing building standards and building higher density units.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    The Children's hospital is a flashing beacon of what is happening all over the country with regards to construction work being done for things like extensions. Have you had work done in your house recently. I have and it starts at a cost of X then all of a sudden its X + Y due to the new piece of steel they have to put in as they never specked the job properly when you put it out to tender and you could of got someone else in to do for cheaper. Then the ah the floor their needs a bit of work so the cost is now X + Y + Z , ah sorry mister we never took into consideration that we would have to patch back up that hole that we left its now X + Y + Z + A , ah mister its now 6 months since we started and raw materials have gone up its now X + Y + Z + A + B ... this is what is happening out there with things like extensions they tender for a job and then add on for absolutely everything and its the add ons where they know they have you by the short and curleys and once you start with a company you cant stop due to needing the work completed.

    Modular homes don't need the specialized skill set that say building a house would need it can be more or less put together in a factory and crane lifted onto the site ergo Mr Developer gets feck all profit which is IMO the main reason why it has not taken off the construction lobby in this country has a massive sway on our government case in point the actions Darragh O'Brien is thinking about taking with regards to buying over price appartments.

    Post edited by fliball123 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,777 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Developers would make more profit from modular homes if they were actually cheaper and viable at scale in this country. How you think reducing build costs would reduce profits is beyond me.

    It is a supply constrained market right now, so houses and apartments will sell around the same price regardless of how it was built because there is undersupply. If a developer could build cheaper using modular housing they would bite your arm off. The fact that nobody in industry here is doing it suggests it is not viable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    True so here is a link for you and it shows profits (trading turnover) jumped up by 15.3% last year or up to about 3 billion for the Irish construction sector as a whole and that is just the Irish sector as its based on the corporation tax paid here in Ireland by the construction industries. I hope this is clear enough for you as I cannot find anything with regards to profits for this shower sure it wouldn't look great if everyone knew how much they were making and then playing the poor mouth at the same time.

    https://www.independent.ie/business/pharma-paid-more-corporation-tax-than-tech-numbers-show/a18283202.html



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    It gives a hand up to social tenants by stepping on the heads of those of us working and on the margins sure why would you bother working when you are better off not bothering



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    They wouldn't get the chance to make any profit as its a different skill set to what our traditional construction companies have. So those who are building here currently have the ear of our government and don't want this to happen en-masse as it will put a fair chunk of them out of business here. Imagine every wall, joint, floor, celling and every other piece of material needed being the same dimension and type and just being churned out by machinery in an automation factory not having to tailor any parts afterwards either they have been created as its a process that is made by machine not man. So instead of needing a bob the builder to put it together its put together in factory by people and machinery that do not need to know how to build a solid wall or level a floor or have any other construction specific expertise as all of this is done via automation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,777 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    A developer could easily buy in modular parts, have them fitted, then sell at same market price they sell conventional build at.

    Your posts are a load of nonsense that show you havent the first clue about what modular construction is right now or how it works. Modular builds need assembly, connection, and interior fitout still. And they are something supplied by a 3rd party same as youd get blocks or concrete from a 3rd party.

    Factories who make modular homes are not in the business of also building homes like a developer would, so this argument about current developers being put out of business is absurd.

    Do you know what a property developer is? Its majority just project management while most of labor is subcontracted. If anyone were to "lose out" from modular homes and a different skillset it, would.be the subbies. Developers have nothing to lose and everything to gain from this golden goose you describe.

    The reality is modular housing is not what you portray it to be.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,933 ✭✭✭tesla_newbie


    The UK is a country with relatively low wages for people who work with their hands , tradesmen in America , Canada and especially Australia would be on more than in Ireland, the UK is an outlier



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    They could easily buy in the modular parts and construct them but the majority of the profit will be in the fabrication of the materials as the construction of these parts are relatively easy to do as I have said there are lots of examples of these modular homes being built in the factory and lifted to the site ergo no need for any specialist construction expert the only bit part would be pouring a concreate base for them to sit on and attaching utilities and no need to pay out for building walls, floors, ceilings etc- They could make hay in that space but lets be honest it will come no where near the profits on what they are currently getting for their bricks and mortar builds. You need to famiiarise yourself with modular homes pal.

    If modular homes were the desired solution for our current lack of supply issue with regards to housing those on welfare, those not being able to afford the current price point and refugees coming into the country it would take a lot the current construction companies pipeline away and it would allow for supply to tick back up and actually take the heat out of our property market so while I agree that they create different things, the things that both create would be competing for people who currently have no roof over their head.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,777 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    A developer only makes profit on the sale of a property. What has profit of making/supplying materials got to do with it?

    And how would they make more money selling brick & mortar homes compared to modular, if modular is cheaper to actually build (according to you)?

    If they reduce their build cost, but keep their sale price the same, they make more profit not less. This is really basic stuff here, that you struggle with it speaks volumes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Your cracking on about them buying in the individual pieces of modular homes and constructing them as a business model and in your opinion that they would make more profit on doing this than continuing with their current bricks and mortars offerings. Which is ludicrous as the construction implementation for these modular homes needs no where near the expertise/expense needed for building a traditional house/dwelling. Your negating the fact that most of the construction is already done in the factory so not much construction needed (if any) So their room to make profits on construction of modular homes via the model you outlined is not really there they could create their own factories and start making modular homes themselves but this would be a move away from what they traditionally do sure if they are doing that why not go into making pizzas or an other sector that could be more profitable as if they are just selling modular homes that have been premade they are just glorified estate agents selling a property? What is an EAs profit margin 1%?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    What is appropriate? If11% was fine in 21 why does it need to double in 2023

    Not only has it doubled on percentage terms if all the inputs have increased substantially the doubling of margin is far greater in monetary terms.

    Add in the fact that you have one dominant buyer, should this not lead to a discount of some kind.

    Taxpayer is being fleeced and in the process there own housing costs are being increased substantially



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Increased profit doesn’t mean they have increased their margins it could just mean an increase in turnover which based on your previous post would make sense. (I.e. they are building more for the same margins)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Then why are they paying corporation tax on it and more to the point why are they paying 15.3% more corpo tax on it than the year prviously? One thing we do know is companies have several ways of limiting their exposure on paying tax. So I am sorry but it does point to an increase in profits there is no other explanation, I couldnt give a crap about their margins, they are taking 15.3% more home in their back pockets than last year and then lobby our government saying they are all in the poor house



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Increase in profits yes due to doing more business but it doesn’t point to an increase in profit margins like you previously claimed is happening



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    I said profits I never said anything about their profit margins. Having said that look at it this way ask the question has construction activity increased significantly in the last year according to constructions PMIs and Outputs they have not its the opposite we are in a contraction for construction so margins be damned they would need to be building a hell of a lot more dwellings for the numbers to match and for your argument to hold true and according to both the construction outputs and PMIs this is not happening construction for 10 of the last 12 months is contracting and construction outputs form Q1 of 2023 is down over 2% from Q1 2022 and yet they are making more profit the numbers don't correlate

    https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/construction-pmi

    https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/construction-output



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,777 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The developers "room to make profits" is by bringing finished houses to market and selling them for more than the cost to build and finance.

    It doesn't matter how easy or difficult or skilled the builders must be, that only affects build cost, it does not affect sale price.

    Sale prices are determined by market forces of supply and demand - right now demand way outstrips supply so even an easier built modular home would sell for same as "bricks and mortar" if they were of similar spec. If modular homes were cheaper to build and could be supplied then they would be far more profitable for a developer. If you cant comprehend this well then ill leave it with you because I've wasted enough time explaining the basics of what a developer actually does for you.



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