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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,918 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Sorry yes, Median full time earnings in Ireland are likely c.€45k. Gap typically quoted around €10k between mean and median.

    30% above NI. Roughly translates across to difference on solicitors and accountants.

    Doesn’t explain the full difference in house prices between North and South, but there’s no way to expect them to be equivalent as the thread seemed to be leaning towards earlier. ROI is a considerably wealthier country than NI.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,518 ✭✭✭Blut2


    That 20-30% figure is pretty consistent across most cost of living metrics I'm aware of - salaries, pint prices, groceries etc - apart from housing. Which hardly makes the salaries "third world stuff" as you claimed, when the difference in salary is broadly in line with the cost of living difference.

    I don't think most posters in this thread would be calling a 20-30% difference in new housing construction costs outrageous. The issue is it appears to be heading towards a 100% difference currently.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,183 ✭✭✭wassie


    Latest SCSI report issued this morning on commercial construction. No doubt same factors in play in the residential market.

    The latest Tender Price Index published by the SCSI shows the rate of commercial construction inflation increased by 2.4% in the first half of 2023, down from 3.7% in the second half of last year.

    Cost pressures clearly still there but material prices are easing with the exception of concrete.

    Acute shortages in mechanical and electrical services - i.e. Plumbers and electricians in particular.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 940 ✭✭✭mike_cork


    "A slowdown in the market meant the number of new mortgages approved in July was down 9.7% on the same month last year and 0.4% on June, despite continued strong first time-buyer activity"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,040 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The Dublin commuter belt is far wider than those 3 counties according to your own observations.

    Irish construction sites are full of northern builders! If you drive up the M1 after 5pm it's like a convoy of them heading home!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,918 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Don’t get caught out by the poor reporting. The comparison to last year includes remortgages, which was just people racing to change lenders before rates went up. It’s an irrelevant figure unless you’re a mortgage broker on commission as it’s just passing a loan from one bank to another

    True new lending to FTBs and Mover Purchasers is up 23% on the same month last year.

    Only bright side is it’s marginally lower than May and June 2023 and the average loan value approval to new FTBs has dropped back down slightly after rocketing earlier in the year.

    On the concerning side if you’re buying. The 3 biggest months since records began for new lending to house buyers are May, June and July 2023.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,183 ✭✭✭wassie


    Concerning especially if you want to purchase a second hand house with supply at all time lows in parts.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    So SBP are reporting that Darragh O'Brien has a genius idea to make apartments more affordable.

    1) Buy up all the apartments that developers are unable to sell to investors who currently can rent them out for eye watering rents and yields.

    2) Use those apartments for "cost rental housing", though it is still none too clear what "cost rental" actually is but presumably it is less than eye watering.

    Hmmm.

    How much more is it going to take for people to realise that the government has no real interest in making housing more affordable other than making the subsidies larger.

    That realisation would be a good start to solving this problem.

    Because at that point people might realise that increased subsidies simply push the prices higher still, at which stage the government needs to further increase the subsidies and so on and so forth.

    It's a vicious circle.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,040 ✭✭✭Villa05


    This was predicted here earlier in the year, the stupidity barometer has exploded



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    So let me get this right. If builders buiold too many apartments and cant sell them the price should come down to a price they can sell them at, right?

    But Darragh the dope is going to buy them off them if they cant sell them. Does the idiot not see a major flawe in that plan? Well several actually but the bug one being that if there is a guaranteed buyer where is the price pressure going to come from which should naturally bring the price down for ordinary buyers? The man is a buffoon. He really is clueless and is the enemy of everyone be they renter, buyer or inverstor.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 863 ✭✭✭Zenify


    Biggest threat to global financial system is currently inflation. Irish government bringing in policies to increase inflation and avoid it from reversing.

    Well done lads.

    Im getting more cynical every year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,779 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    It makes some kind of sense in that it guarantees apartment building is viable so they will keep getting built.

    However the Minister for inflation could instead have tried to tackle the build costs and addressed why apartment building was becoming non viable in the first place - instead of curing the disease they are just treating the symptoms.

    On the bright side, its better than agreeing to lease the unsellable apartments...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,183 ✭✭✭wassie


    Supported by the Irish Banks, who are subsidising mortgage rates at the expense of depositors (and then claim how clever they are by making super profits).



  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Listening to the business section on TLW last week, it seems we have one of the lowest mortgage rates in the EU, where we used to have amongst the highest. I suspect most mortgage holders would prefer lower mortgage rates than higher deposit rates in the current inflationary climate.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    It makes no sense at all.

    A large part of the so called viability problem is the land cost.

    If the market is not buying at prices based on current land values then land values will fall and apartments will become viable at cheaper prices.

    The only thing that will prevent land prices falling is if some muppet with more money than sense decides to pay this deemed "market value", the price point for which there is no market, for every single apartment built.

    Normally you'd think that's ridiculous, it would never happen. But who'd have thought it, that muppet is our housing minister.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,861 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    The ministers main goal is to reduce the social housing list, but without building any social homes.

    Tactic is, by as many apartments as we can (using tax payers money) and then use them to reduce the housing list.

    In doing so, we will artifically prop up prices, which makes apartments more expensive for those that can afford them...

    Though that doesnt matter, if I get my social housing list down to zero.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 172 ✭✭Beigepaint


    A better solution would be to zero rate the type of building we most need.

    Such as zero tax on 6 story or higher buildings inside the canals. Or zero tax on any building 4 story or higher within 2km of a post office.

    Taxes can be used as incentives.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,040 ✭✭✭Villa05




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,040 ✭✭✭Villa05


    State out bidding the public in the most starved market in the country.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,183 ✭✭✭wassie


    This Limerick Chamber are bang on. This nonsense is exactly what is putting the golden goose of FDI at risk in this country.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Its a joke and it makes zero sense Tim. They have options to build the modular homes at a much lower price point I mean at 20/30/40% of what this mess would cost. I am starting to see the man behind the curtain here in the last 12 months when there was any kind of threat to property prices even with our surging demand and p1ss poor supply the constraints of interest rates rising meant the bog standard woker could not afford a mortgage and property prices dropped for about 6 months there at the end of last year and the start of this year and what did the masters do. They upped the lending limits for people who wanted a mortgage and then the price drops reversed and now when developers cant sell at a price point to make a profit as it is simply unaffordable to the vast majority of people living here what do they they do , they become a backstop paying an inflated price so that our poor can live in these places that workers cannot afford, I feel like I am living in a parallel universe to be honest. Someone needs to challenge this how are these people allowed to use tax payers money for outrageous practices like this when there are much cheaper options



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,779 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    It does make some sense now - you have all this land suitable for high density housing, not modular prefabs or anything else. It needs apartments built on it, the issue is viability.

    Really the market should be left to sort itself, if planners will only allow apartments on the land and current building costs are unviable, then the land becomes less valuable to compensate until it hits a point that apartments are viable all of a sudden.

    That is of course if you have a normal market. We do not. In our dysfunctional market someone will just sit on the land, develop nothing, and manage to sneak out of paying vacant site taxes too.

    A properly enforced, really punitive vacant site tax would sort all these issues out quickly. As I said before, backstops and price floors are all treating symptoms of our dysfunction, not the causes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    It does not make sense the current population cant afford these and yet our masters are going to buy them and let the poor get in there? How does it make sense for anyone on the margins and working to continue working? Modular homes can also be stacked to multiple stories at a much cheaper price point why the hell are these not being ramped up it beggars belief. They need to up the vacant land tax to 10% a year each year these lads dawdle they wont be sitting on it for long use it or lose it. They have used the carrot for the developers for the last 10 years at this stage the feckers have carrot sticks sticking out of their asses after being looked after so well. Its time for the stick and developers sitting on land should be tackled instead of paying an inflated market price for apartments' which will have a knock on effect of other people who are working or running in the same race and jumping the same hurdles that the people who will benefit from Darragh buying these coping on to the fact that their best option to have a roof over their head is to stop working. The knock on effect of this will be massive if its allowed to happen.


    https://prefabie.com/modular-homes-stacked/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,040 ✭✭✭Villa05


    If 60% of new homes are being purchased by the state entities, that 40% will be reducing to 0 very quickly. The state will kill the new homes private market.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,710 ✭✭✭Underground


    It feels a bit like the horse has bolted at this stage. When you see developers looking for 650k for a 3 bed semi in fcking Cherrywood - at 4% + rates, surely something has to give at some stage?

    If the government could just stop, even for just five minutes, trying their level best to prop up prices at every turn, that might be a start.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,779 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Ah jesus modular skyscrapers now?

    They probably cost more than a concrete apartment block that is struggling for viability



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    No they don't they cost a lot less both in materials used to construct and how easy they are to construct so its a lot less labour intensive and quicker to build.. Anyone making an argument that it may not look pretty needs to look at any high rise they are always gawdy looking with few exceptions so we may as well cut the costs way down for the tax payer.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,779 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Then why arent developers here already using them? Surely they would want to cut down on labour and material costs



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    As the profits would be no where near as high as the the sh1tshow currently, there is a veil of secrecy around the costs involved with construction and there lots of companies making a fortune here by conflating costs and the cost of most raw materials have come down but it has not been passed on. Just look at the chlidren's hospital there is no way that should be costing what it is costing and 630k for a 3 bed apartments in Cherrywood I mean phucking hell getting that with a mortgage of 4% plus management fees is just out of reach for the vast majority of the population. The construction lobbyist just want the gravy to continue.


    To get a sense of the profits these companies are raking in under the current phucked up system


    https://irishbuildingmagazine.ie/2021/07/08/2020-turnover-at-irelands-top-50-contractors-tops-e10bn/#:~:text=John%20Sisk%20%26%20Son%20retained%20top,cash%20with%20zero%20bank%20borrowings.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    That just shows turnover of the companies and not profit….add on top that a large portion of the turnover would be outside Ireland with big projects in the uk



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