Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Interesting reading about the second jet. I don't believe for a minute it is not linked to Wagner Group. It flew back from Azerbaijan to Moscow today.

From the article....

Earlier on Wednesday, another jet also set off from Moscow and appeared to be following the same route, completing its journey and returning the same day. The Wagner-linked social media channel Grey Zone said that jet was connected to the mercenary group. But the plane’s operator, Jetica LLC, denied this, telling Reuters on Friday that “neither the plane itself nor its passengers are related to Wagner and have never been”.

Actually yes I was going to add: it's amazing how often these people do get lucky all the time. For example baffling how the North Korean fat boy leaders never get killed, or Assad etc....they all either have very loyal circles or are indeed very lucky...

Pavel here recalling how the Putin mafia moved into Crimea.

That's an overly simplistic explanation. Both of them have plenty of enemies and there are plenty of people even in North Korea who see through all the bullsh*t. More likely these people, and Putin too, make sure their inner circle are both handsomely rewarded for loyalty and implicated if things go wrong, so that they all know: if the leader falls, they fall. Ideology alone is not enough,not even in NK (hence defectors).

Maybe Putin's next chef will take the more discreet option of poisoning his food, that would be nice

The British/English counterexample is not great. They are not surrounded by an ocean and invaded both France I think and of course ourselves on occasion with a (or one) justification being this sort of ensuring security from "enemies" mustering against them in one or the other.

We had long detailed posts at start of the thread about the Russian leadership's need to feel "safe" from invasions manifesting in understandable conquering and crushing of neighbours. A kind of fatalistic attitude to it - You might not like it but Russia is powerful and that is how it is so Ukraine should bow down and accept Putin's demands and stop dreaming.

It is not 1700 any more. It is just not "acceptable" any longer IMO, if it ever was. Even if you don't want to bring morality and the idea of self determination of peoples into it and see yourself as a kind of hard nosed realist, weapons are too powerful and destructive now for this behaviour. There's many large and powerful countries in the world quite unhappy with their more or less settled 21st C borders and either jealous or fearful of their neighbours (not just Russia, they are not special) and several of them have nukes too.

True in the past but nobody absolutely nobody wanted to invade Russia in the present. This idea of needing to have a geographical buffer is pure horsesht.

Overly simplistic or not, it works. How many people have managed to defect from N Korea? And as for many N Koreans knowing what's going on, that's simply not true, at least amongst the majority of the population. Keeping his people in " Permanent darkness" is what ensures the Jong Un dynasty stays in power. And as for the ones who would be in the know Kim is so paranoid that he killed the man who guided him to power, his own uncle. Jang Song. And then had the headless body displayed to senior N Korean officials. Or in other words, the ones who would be in the know. There are pictures of the Jong Un's literally everywhere in N Korea, and failure to show the proper respect can have dire consequences for any such unfortunate's caught not showing the proper "respect". He also keeps his people in a semi-starved state, which of course makes them more amenable and easier to control. Compared to S Korea's border guards who are all fit and healthy looking, Jong's are all undersized and undernourished. And that's only what happens on the surface. A colleague of mine spent two years there, and you would not believe some of the stories that I've heard about N Korea. Suffice it to say, Russians live in a comparative paradise. And that's saying something.

As for Syria, I spent nearly 3 years there myself, at a time when the war was raging full blast. Shooting and shelling was an every day / night occurrence. In the street I lived in, the lift hoist on the roof was demolished, 5 doors down, a mortar landed on the street causing massive destruction to both sides, and a few hundred metre's further on, a building was completely levelled. All this was in one direction, the opposite direction was just as bad, but further away from where I lived. But anyway, I digress. You are right when you say that loyalty to dictators can depend on said dictator rewarding these people financially for their loyalty, but that loyalty is not absolute. Loyalty to the highest bidder, in effect. But there's another kind of loyalty, like in Syria where the minorities lives actually depends on Assad's protection from Al Quaida, ISIS etc And this is not depending on cash payments or favoritism or threats from the regime. Assad is known as the Protector of the minorities. And these people will protect him and his family, and as time has proved, they're doing an extremely good job of it.

I'm pretty sure that half the population live in the western most eight of Russia.

Actually you're the one who constantly attacks me. I was having a discussion with someone else about why dictators like Putin are not assassinated more often and then you jump in out of nowhere and say that I'm sympathising with "poor Russians". My post had absolutely nothing to do with that topic and you were just looking to stir an argument again. I've no interest in attacking you personally but I will respond when you totally twist the sense of my posts and write nonsense about a "thesis" that I don't remotely promote. Check your own behaviour before calling for other people to be banned

Where has Ukraine breached the line, do we think? Is it here?

A nuclear super power doesn’t need a buffer but an expanding empire does.

I would imagine the Russians would know where their line has been breached, if it has indeed been breached. They'd have reports from their own soldiers, number one, or even chatter on Telegram to look at.