What does the future hold for Donald Trump? - threadbans in OP

TinyMuffin · 25-08-2023 09:00AM

That feckin writers strike is robbing me of some great viewing these nights. Real time with bill Maher would have been brilliant tonight.

charlie_says · 25-08-2023 09:00AM

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1694886846050771321

Ez money!

Imagine how many millions of dollars will be raised by the TDS coverage.

Amazing!

Very cool Don!

Beta Ray Bill · 25-08-2023 09:00AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023890#Comment_121023890

Yeah but college...

Oscar_Madison · 25-08-2023 09:01AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023875#Comment_121023875

I think Democrats more so than Republicans need to be persuaded to vote- especially the ethnic minority voters- that takes energy, engagement, clear speaking and indeed effort in ensuring they’re registered etc

I just don’t see those qualities in Biden- Democrats staying away from the polling booth is what will likely swing this election to the Republicans.

I wonder though will a decision be made on Biden in the coming months- will he himself say he’s not running ? If he does run, given his age and apparent frailty, his running mate, whoever they are, will be the most significant running mate of any presidential candidate in decades because there’s every possibility they will be the next President of the United States if Biden doesn’t survive the full term- that’s going to be a complex decision for people to make- they might like Biden but not the running mate- what do voters do then?

ohnonotgmail · 25-08-2023 09:08AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023840#Comment_121023840

he gave his weight as 215lb. earlier in the year it was apparently 240lb. all self reported. at 240lb he was the same weight i was at my heaviest. i'm pretty much the same height as him. he is a lot heavier than i ever was. a lot. maybe not 300lb but certainly 270 to 280.

Akrasia · 25-08-2023 09:10AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120993734#Comment_120993734

I recommend the book 'the Authoritarians' by Robert Altemyer. It was written way before Trump got elected but explains the personality traits of the Trump supporters very well

pixelburp · 25-08-2023 09:13AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023906#Comment_121023906

The problem is, nobody's waiting in the wings yet to take the baton from Biden; Harris isn't popular at all, so would be a terrible candidate to take over. Even if Biden was 5 years younger this wouldn't be a problem. I think the age thing is exaggerated, but it does count against him. And TBH it's a broad problem in American politics anyway: Grassley, Feinstein, McConnell, Pelosi, half the bench in the Supreme Court to name a few; the list goes on. America is a bit of a gerontocracy, and lifetime appointments the big problem in all that. Funny how respectful the narrative has been for Mitch McConnell's actual stroke or "sun downing" moment live on TV - yet still people will witter on about Biden's supposed cognitive decline.

But again. I think it's too easy to dismiss just how unpopular, and hated Trump is. Now with the added incentive that courts of law are proving the guy had a hand in trying to steal the 2020 election. It might be half-myth but Americans really hold their institutions in high regard, and Trump basically tried to do the one thing this myth likes to persist with: that America is a beacon of democracy, that above all else it runs by the rule of law. Donald Trump tried to make himself President for Life - and that's before you get into the weeds of the actual things he did as President.

I don't think independent voters are gonna stay at home to let this guy back in; and if you're a PoC, or on the LGBT+ spectrum, or just a young man or woman vaguely liberal-leaning (which would be many), then if you don't hold your nose for Biden the alternative is the lunatics running the asylum.

The first time around, 2016 still had some cool heads and sober figures trying to make sense of Trump's "Unique" brand of leadership. All that's left now are the wingnuts and actual, dangerous conservative lunatics who had stayed by Trump's side throughout. Trump 2024 would see even more extreme swings in the legislative branch, even more lurches into autocracy at the state level. For instance, there's insinuations that having nuked Roe/Wade, the SC would go after same-sex marriage next.

TinyMuffin · 25-08-2023 09:14AM

…….

Christy42 · 25-08-2023 09:20AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023888#Comment_121023888

D) is a rapist.

And this should put up everywhere.

Penn · 25-08-2023 09:20AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023902#Comment_121023902

At least other countries are able to have fun with it

https://twitter.com/ChudsOfTikTok/status/1694980593711251954?s=20

Christy42 · 25-08-2023 09:23AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023905#Comment_121023905

Sure but that is his ceiling. Hilary was hated. That is effectively his ceiling and the college is very hard to win if your absolute best is being several million votes behind.

Boggles · 25-08-2023 09:24AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023905#Comment_121023905

Yeah but you were talking about her being hated, she won the literal popular vote.

So by your own definition Trump was more hated.

Anyway she lost that election for numerous reasons, not just one.

Akrasia · 25-08-2023 09:33AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023835#Comment_121023835

Trump will win the primary because with FPTP, 30% support can win in a 10 horse race.

30% of Republicans is nowhere near enough to win the Presidency. Lots of Americans voted for Trump in 2016 because they thought it was funny. Since then the joke has gotten old and lots of places have had their abortion rights severely restricted.

Oscar_Madison · 25-08-2023 09:59AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024031#Comment_121024031

Whilst the description given by that poster may not have been as eloquent as you might wish, when it comes to voting, perception plays a very large part and if a person doesn’t think Biden is up to the job based on how he comes across on TV, which is where most people gain their perception of any US presidential candidate, then regardless of how they describe it, that’s their true reality- giving out to people for using non PC language won’t win Biden the next election, and millions of voters may well be coming to a similar conclusion, regardless of what words they use.

briany · 25-08-2023 09:59AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024061#Comment_121024061

That's what he would like to do, I think, or at least he would accept that outcome, but he'd have to battle the general current of U.S. foreign policy in order to.

It's typical Trump, of course. Makes a pronouncement about what he would do and offers no detail. In the case of Ukraine/Russia, his plan, such as it is, is to tell Zelensky to get on the phone to Putin and make a deal, and also tell Putin to accept a deal with Zelenskyy or else Ukraine would receive 'unprecedented' support from the U.S.

Again, this is pretty vague. Would that mean that Zelenskyy can call whatever deal he wants and Putin has to accept or else have stealth bombers pounding Russian front lines within the week? If so, that wouldn't actually be a bad proposition. However, even Trump knows that deals involve negotiation, and neither side is yet willing to meet in the middle.

Cody montana · 25-08-2023 10:08AM

Don jr selling t shirts with the mugshot already.

Bunch of grifters.

valoren · 25-08-2023 10:16AM

Trump claiming his arrest is election interference despite that arrest being for his evident election interference. Parody stuff.

In 2016 it was generally presumed that, all things considered, that Clinton was a shoo-in to win i.e. no way will Trump be President/voters will, even if they have to hold their noses, do the right thing and vote Clinton. Perhaps this made a crucial difference in voting patterns which allowed Trump to eek out enough EC votes (despite handily losing the popular vote). It could be a case of a similar voter malaise creeping in ahead of 2024 i.e. no bloody way will people vote in Trump, they'll do the right thing. With a writers strike then there is a litany of talent available to drum up a relentless campaign in compelling voters that even if they had to crawl a mile over broken glass to reach a voting booth then they would just to keep Trump out of the White House.

ancapailldorcha · 25-08-2023 10:26AM

I find it telling that Trump isn't even pretending to have policies at this point. He's clearly gunning for the people he feels slighted and unjustly persecuted by. It's all rather pathetic but there is a real danger that he might win. I am inclined to think it is unlikely for a few reasons.

The first is the attempted coup. The MAGA faithful are as fervent as ever but some of the GOP's voter base may flip for the centrist Biden or just stay at home. Everyone else was and is disgusted by this brazen and half-assed attempt to overthrow democracy.

Second is covid. He spread anti-vaxx conspiracy theories for years and led the worst response in the developed world to the virus in which hundreds of thousands of Americans died. The MAGA faithful don't care one bit but anyone outside that demographic, particularly those who lost loved ones have a reason to be hostile towards Trump.

Finally, 2016 will be 8 years before Trump's probable next attempt in 2024. That's a lot of time for the privileged, baleful elderly demographic to die off and the GOP haven't done much to replace them. It's a bit different from Europe where there are confounding factors like rural isolation, local cultures and evangelicalism in the mix but it's hard to see why someone who was a teenager in 2016 would vote Trump in 2024 unless they come from a diehard GOP family.

At the time of writing, fivethirtyeight states that just over 56% of Americans hold an unfavourable opinion of Trump.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/

Tony EH · 25-08-2023 10:26AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023524#Comment_121023524

He can't even be honest about his weight.

:/

Economics101 · 25-08-2023 10:34AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024136#Comment_121024136

Calling someone a walking corpse is not just non-PC; it's plain insulting and demeaning.

PC, which is so often a load of nonsense would demand that one refer to Biden as a Senior Citizen of some other empty euphemism.

Leroy42 · 25-08-2023 10:36AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024136#Comment_121024136

That all makes sense, except that the only alternative they will have will be Trump. If the GOP, as has been pointed out previously, went with someone else then I think Biden would be in serious trouble. But it looks almost certain they will put Trump up as the GO candidate and therefore the comparison is between a fail, but what mostly people accept is a fairly hardworking and straightforward Biden, and Trump.

Trump, a convicted rapist, indicted 4 times on 91 counts. Surrounded by other people indicted. Has no one from his original term backing him, and very many claiming he is terrible.

So much like on 2016 when people looked at HC and opted for Trump because they had so many issues with HC, Trump faced the same in 2020 and will face the same in 2024. Trump is extremely divisive. People love him, but many people really hate and fear him. And that fear was shown to be perfectly legitimate with his carry on before, during and after January 6th.

Americans are massively patriotic, massively proud of their democracy. And will mobilise to save it. They came out in record numbers for Biden, as the only alternative to Trump, in 2020 and there is no reason to think the same dynamic won't be in play in 2024. In fact, that dynamic may even be increased due to everything that has happened since 2020.

AMKC · 25-08-2023 10:40AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024249#Comment_121024249

At the time of writing, fivethirtyeight gives Trump a 56.2% to Trump.

What are you on about?.

That's says only 39.8% favour Trump to win thankfully and 56.2% favour him to lose thankfully.

Water John · 25-08-2023 10:49AM

The data scatter in the time graph, needs a deeper analysis by a data analyst. HC in 2016 had an 85% chance of being elected to DT at 15%, yet he won. What does this graph say, JB at 90% and DT at 10% is my guess, looking at it.

Tony EH · 25-08-2023 10:53AM

.....

ancapailldorcha · 25-08-2023 10:55AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024294#Comment_121024294

Typing error. Fixed.

Podge_irl · 25-08-2023 11:28AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024061#Comment_121024061

I mean, he won't, because its not remotely within his power to do so. He'll simply cost Ukrainian lives by limiting the supply of arms to them which will drag the war on longer. If Trump told Zelensky to make a deal he'd be told to get fucked.

It's not the US' war.

Podge_irl · 25-08-2023 11:30AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023875#Comment_121023875

Biden is too old but he's absolutely not useless. He's had a very quietly successful term and has engaged in the kind of consensus building politics many people at least claim to want. The IRA has been a pretty good success and his role in aiding ukriane should not be understated.