Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

So here'd be my current likely selections, coming off that opening warmup:

That's 31/33 seats filled.

Main winners:

Casey now firmly #2 at scrum-half.

Crowley did enough I think to move into #2 out-half.

McCarthy really showed his bulk, I have him on the plane above for now, but see below.

Main losers:

Stockdale, had a fine game aside from one massive mistake which might cost him dearly.

Earls, see above.

Nash, didn't reallly see enough of him, but perhaps you could list him as a winner by default, given the more glaring errors by the other two?

Prendergast didn't have huge impact when he came on.

Frawley came into a pretty disjointed side and was moved around a bit, positionally.

Blade won't be on the plane, I think it's safe to say.

So with England on the horizon, the main points I'll be looking at are:

Back three - Lowe and Hansen likely need some kind of a run, but it's fair enough to say that Stockdale and Earls will be looking to atone for their hiccups, while Nash will be looking to show more of what he can do.

Back row - If Coombes doesn't feature, and arguably start, his chances of selection are gone. Prendergast will also want to register a more impactful account of himself.

Outhalf - I would hope that Frawley gets more minutes in a more settled side, but the upside to giving Crowley or Byrne minutes will also be compelling. Another interesting selection here.

Lock - McCarthy's performance against Italy has him damn near on the plane for me. I listed him as selected above, though it's probably fair to call it more like a 70/30 hunch, given the standard of opposition. Let's hopefully see what he can do against the English.

Hooker - both Herring and Stewart had decent showings against Italy. I currently have Herring ahead of Stewart for the third slot on the plane, but it's close.

Only thing about Frawley is that by covering centre he might obviate selecting an additional utility back. In Frawley and JOB you arguably cover all positions 10-15, meaning you might then have a slot for a specialist like McCloskey.

Yeah I guess the question coming out of the weekend is 'what can Prendergast add at 6 that Baird can't do' and the answer could well be, 'not much'. Coombes, somewhat strangely given his lack of playing time, could in fact stand a better chance of nicking the last back row spot given just how different he is to all the other options. Though Coombes's biggest competition now, I feel, is McCarthy, i.e., the go-to player for when we need size.

Yeah it's a bit of a shame for Osbourne and Treadwell, that we face our final warm up (prior to the 33 being announced) against opposition that we'd ideally not take too lightly.

I think I'd largely agree with the 31 that Neil has named but I do think the make up of the squad is probably still not fully settled. Most likely set up is a 18/15 split with 9 front rowers going (NZ and Fiji have both gone with this) but England have gone 19/14. Samoa have named 32 players (one to be confirmed) with the remaining spot likely to be a prop which would give them a 19/14 split also yet still only bringing 8 front row players. Argentina have gone 18/15 with only 5 props.

Whilst players are in direct competition with those who they play the same position as, they're also in competition with others owing to the make up of the squad. Prendergast/Coombes need to outplay Kilcoyne/TOT as much as each other. With Crowley and Frawley mixing up their positions at the weekend, it could make a 19/14 split a real option for the coaching team. And if they're going that direction, it really throws a spanner in the works with who might be left out of the 14 backs. If they took Frawley (as well as the 6 half backs, 3 midfielders and starting back 3) it would leave only a single spot in the backs which JOB would be the most likely but I really wouldn't rule out Earls if it comes down to that one slot.

If they go with the most likely scenario of 18/15, they have looseheads who are able to cover tighthead but don't really have tightheads who can cover loosehead (Bealham hasn't started a game at loosehead in years). With that in mind, I think Kilcoyne will travel but is relatively fortunate to do so and that will be at the expense of an arguably better player in a different position. Baird and Beirne being genuine lock/flanker options takes a lot of pressure off the back 5 forward selection. And Doris performing well at 7 will ease concerns about openside too.

If they go with 18 forwards and 9 front rowers, then the forwards that Neil named above are probably going to travel unless Coombes, Treadwell, Coombes or Prendergast do something fairly impressive in the next two games.

The back line is going to be a real scrap for those last couple of spots. If they're going with 15 backs, then 12 are pretty much set in stone to my mind (6 halfbacks, 3 centres and back 3). That leaves 3 spots which JOB is the front runner and probably close to nailed on if they go 18/15. That allows them look at an additional winger and an additional centre option. And I think it's near impossible to guess who those last two slots would be for.

But ultimately he was hard done by because Kleyn offered nothing at the WC and if I remember correctly there was 1 game where our line-out was an issue.

I wouldn't rule Osborne out yet if he is fit.

Can play across the back line.

While I'm not saying he is a better 12 than Aki or McCloskey. He has that flexibility that he can cover multiple positions. I'm not sure if both Aki and McCloskey go simply because they can only really cover 12 and Henshaw and ringrose, Crowley can already do that Job.

Saying that we need to see Osborne play v England if he is to have any hope of being a bolter.

Toner was the very definition of washed up. Rightly dropped, Tadhg Beirne (World Team of the Year 2022, URC Champion) instead of Toner one of Joe Schmidt’s solid selection calls. Kleyn selected as Quinn Roux was injured and the Two time European cup and three time six nation champion coach liked a heavy lock in his squad.

to summarise: Toner absolutely washed up, rightly dropped. Ireland woeful when he was brought back into squad for 2020 six nations.

Maybe Toner deserved to be dropped, but absolutely no-one saw it coming, he was in everyone's predicted squad.

Owen Doyle is not backwards in coming forward in the Irish Times today in thinking JS got away very lightly. I wonder will JS be on notice that he will need to act responsibly during the RWC games. more generally I think the game will benefit from refs being less pally with players and laying down the law including 10 metre penalties for lip.

To be honest I don’t know but I do know he played 75 minutes in the series winning 3rd test against NZ last summer. And an out half not playing all 80 mins is not too unusual.

I am worried about him for the RWC - will time catch up with him in terms of injuries and form? If so, will his replacement be the media selection or the genuine heir?

😅😅😅

As I said above I think he is the GOAT for Irish rugby although world cups have not been his friend. Anyway, hopefully he will deliver as otherwise we may see Ireland exit at the group stages - not inconceivable despite the believers here.