Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

There have been 3 houses within 2 km of me on the market for over 600k in the last month. All of them snapped up already. Dont know the sale prices but a neighbour said one of them went for 40k above asking anyway.

Also one across the road thats sale fell through for lack of fiber the last time went back on the market a couple of weeks ago and is sale agreed again for even more.

There is one about 5km away that is not shifting for the last 2 months, but thats because it should bever have been put on the market at €300k never mind over 600k which it is on the market at. The place is falling down and needs to be practically rebuilt

This thread hasnt changed, same posters posting links to job cuts (but never job announcements) to support their assertion that the ceiling is about to fall in on us.

My sister and her husband emigrated to Singapore 2 years ago, finally go around to selling their apartment, nice 3 bed one but on the n11 so its not exactly tranquil, couldnt sell it for 570k before they left they are sale agreed at 620k now, load of houses around me, that need plenty of work, all were on at over 1m, some well in excess of it, most of the signs say sale agreed or sold now. If its slowing down, its doing it slowly.

victimise or attack me?, did i say anyone was, or are you imagining things again Donald?

Going from unable to sell, to 50k more, over a period where we have been constantly hearing from posters in this thread about prices falling and a stalling market etc etc (also went sale agreed in 3 weeks) seems an unlikely result if you were to believe some of the rhetoric on here.

why bother posting job announcements in isolation, i dont think they are relevant in a thread about property prices, if we see a significant increase in the unemployment levels maybe but outside of that i dont think its relevant really.

It's not all about unemployment levels. You can have a situation where most people can keep their jobs but real salaries decrease. Opportunities for raises and promotions fall fairly quickly when an industry takes a hit.

I posted the Accenture link as it was a big story due to the fact that a few months ago they said they only needed to fire 400 people in Dublin. Turns out they got their figures wrong and it's now suddenly 1,290. That's from a company whose role is supposed to be being able to get other companies anticipate changes and be ready for them.

The rest of the posts on the matter were due to another poster implying that everyone already knew about the 1,290. If he hadn't said that, there would have been no more about it.

570 --> 650 over two years is just a little less than CPI over that time btw in case you are interested.

Should be pretty easy for you to post a link to any article or a blog or even a facebook or twitter post from a few months back where it explains that the number is ~1300 rather than the 400. Even just the one where you read it or talked about it yourself. Even a boards.ie post from a few months back explaining that it was that number.

I don't know why people want to make a big deal out of it by wasting energy and keeping bringing it up. There is no point. It's just a story about ~900 people losing their jobs. Not the end of the world in isolation.

I only brought it up as it would be of relevance to the overall economy if that sector is experiencing difficulties, which would have a knock-on impact to the property market. I wasn't expecting nonsensical "challenges" on it.

By all means say it's not relevant. Don't make stuff up though. You can prove me wrong on that easily by providing that link.

I mean I can give you loads of links of papers from March quoting the figure of 400 if you really want them and can't find them

Why is cpi significant to the house price? And 570 to 620 doesn't tell the story as there wasn't a buyer at 570 so in reality it was 'worth' less

They are under no pressure to raise deposit rates. They will only increase once people start moving money out of the bank chasing rates elsewhere and that’s not happening at present.

Why would someone bid against themselves?

The quality of a lot of these builds were substandard though. Buildings are subject to much more oversight and inspection which does add to the cost upfront. But much cheaper than remediating them down the line.

Not suggesting for a moment that this is why we are not building at this level, but noting a lot of construction during the boom was pure shite.

This guy is warning of a potential credit crisis leading to mass margin calls emenating from Japan having to defend it's currency

Have a listen and make up your own minds

Absolutely, theres a reason "Celtic tiger build" is a synonym for low quality these days.

But that 90k a year completions is the equivalent of about 110k a year per capita completions now, and even higher in the years to come as our population continues to increase rapidly.

So the idea that 30k per year completions is a reasonable hard ceiling for the rest of this decade is pretty ridiculous. At 60k a year we'd still be running at about half of the mid 2000s, so it should be very achievable even with higher building standards. And might actually make a dent in the housing crisis.

 low inventory of stock for sale = very low turnover rate of existing stock.

'Why' is the issue that needs resolving.

They might have been told to up the offer or just decided to max out. We bid significantly more to go sale agreed and end the game.

The low turnover in the US is attributable to the fact that the majority of consumer mortgages are issued on a 30 year fixed rate. Trading up means forgoing your cheap low fixed rate with a new considerably higher fixed rate on a potentially more expensive property, so people are choosing to sit on the sidelines and paydown the mortgage and build up equity.

Funadmentally whilst 30 year fixed rates are great for consumers, it's not so good for the banking sector that has to borrow short and lend long, increasing risks for banks when interests rate rises like they have.