Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Waiting benefits Russia during a critical window for counter-offensive. When the mud season starts that window closes.

Ukraine don't really have a choice but to conduct an offensive, they are however doing probing attacks, seeking weaknesses, rather than taking a massive risk and committing the bulk of their forces. Yes, it's crazy to do it without air cover, but again they don't really have a choice.

Russia will have time to rearm.I don't see the benefit of trying to weaken it militarily except in the present case where it has broken international norms regarding the rights of internationally recognized states to not be attacked in their own borders.

After this Ukraine war is resolved one way or another Russia will still be free to rearm and will still be accountable for its actions.

Hopefully it will live in fear and contempt of the neighbours it has mistreated and be obliged to compensate them insofar as that is possible.

But we have seen how well humiliation worked with Germany after WW1 although I am not sure how accurate that interpretation of the causes of Hitler's rise to power is.

There's a third and also kinda conspiratorial explanation. China has indicated to the US that they do not wish to see a complete collapse of the Russian Federation. The cheap Russian resources suit them just fine as is.

So the US has stopped short of supplying Ukraine enough to absolutely blow Russia out of the water(Crimea). Which could be destabilizing.

This is why the allies in the wesr never explicitly state they want Ukraine to win and retake all their territory. They're kinda hoping that Russia will come to the table and negotiate some compromise over Crimea once they've been booted from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. I've always felt this lack of strong messaging is an enormous mistake. But what do i know?

Another business man dies in Russia

Just my opinion but I think more modern anti aircraft missiles, that both Ukraine and putin's forces have, make the lifespan of any aircraft on the front lines too short to be decisive in the conflict. I think I've seen official comment from the USA saying they don't expect the introduction of more modern aircraft to the forces of Ukraine to provide a major shift in their ability to remove putin's forces from their country so why would they be sitting back and waiting for these to arrive? Ukrainian forces even defending themselves from attacks by putin's forces suffer losses and now while they are taking more offensive actions will still be taking losses but with the benefit of knowing they are moving towards eliminating the moskovytes occupying their country. I've seen comments that the long attritional conflict suits putin but I'm not sure that is true with the economic power of the countries supporting Ukraine many times the size of putin's economic resources. I'd really like to see Ukraine free of putin's invaders quickly but I think Ukraine knows it may take a long time to destroy putin's power so the sooner they move on completing the job the better.

Well, strictly speaking, you could consider Cluster Bombs air power? They are very effective for clearing entrenched positions, and the will work against mines too. For sure, after a few barrages ( and they have millions apparently) marching forward, what's left on the ground, will not be a very good position.

There's also the fact that, no matter how much Kermit thinks he knows about the situation, the Ukrainians themselves know vastly more.

Ah well, shouldn’t have been there in the first place.

There aren't too many armies in the world who can rely on always having air superiority or even air support. Ukraine has been invaded by a larger nation and a larger army, and they are fighting with what they have (even if they get plenty of material support). It doesn't matter that an "expert" on twitter says they shouldn't, because they don't have X, or because Russia has more y. So far they've done very well despite that.

Well thier night didn't go as planned 🤣

Some people get comfort from the idea that everything is planned, because the reality is far more unpredictable.

I honestly thought Putin wouldn't invade, I thought it was all posturing because to invade would simply cripple Russia, but a decade ago I would have laughed at brexit, but hey.

I'm still laughing at Brexit and its folly, but that's for another thread.

With regards to Putin's plans to invade, it became clear enough near the actual time that Russia was going to make some kind of incursion. Where it would happen and to what intensity was still a topic of discussion on the eve of it, though, as I recall, because I woke up on the morning of it and was shocked to read that not only had Russia invaded, but were pressing on three fronts.

Then again, if you're invading a country, it would be natural enough to try and keep your planned routes of attack as much a secret as you can.