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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,503 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    Russia has mined much of the Ukrainian lands anyway. The whole eastern part of the country will need to be carefully demined afterwards so a few extras won't matter much.

    Besides, they could always drop a few on the mine fields and help things along.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    The Kremlin's tactic for dealing with Prigozhin are becoming clearer and clearer


    Putin probably thought if he eliminated him immediately after the revolt then there would be a danger that he could become a martyr. Instead he's letting his propagandists tear down Prigozhin's reputation first. I had to laugh at the performance of the main goober in this video - his "surprise" and "outrage" that they found a few handguns in the house and then the host clearing playing devil's advocate.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Speaking of Prigozhin - The last audio message from him was about a week ago and I don't believe there has been any video footage of him since he left Rostov. His plane is flying all over the place but there's no guarantee that he's actually on it. The Belarussians are saying he's not there and the new Wagner camp there is entirely empty. He could very well be either dead or in captivity right now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,079 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,066 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    If they have a need for the cluster bombs on specific targets, they will use them and should.


    Listening to a Muppet on sky talk about bit of NATO fracturing over their use. What boll78.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,450 ✭✭✭zv2


    As your man on Sky News said, the clusters will be used a lot in areas that are mined anyway. Also, I believe, they will make a map of where they are used to make cleaning up easier.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,066 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    I largely agree with you but he has a point in that conditions now favour the Russians, it's always easier to be the poor soldier behind 6 feet of reinforced concrete shooting at the professional soldier running across the field.


    That doesn't mean that Russia will hold what they have, they might or might not, but freeing it will be difficult and very costly in terms of Ukrainian lives.


    Hopefully the cluster bombs will make up for the chronic shortfall in artillery shells being sent to Ukraine.


    Hopefully as well, we'll see a collapse in the Russian lines and people fleeing but that is not probably going to happen.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,616 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    No. I think you were right the first time. They are dismantling his reputation bit by bit, the wigs story is a testament to that also. If Prigozhin does not have dirt on Putin he will fall out a window or get food poisoning in a few months time. I wonder what is going on with the General? I read an article that said if he was charged with anything it would cause further dissension within the Russian Army.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,616 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    To be honest I think the cluster munitions will prove decisive in breaking Russian resistance. I can see morale in the Russian Army decreasing even further as a consequence. I won't be surprised if we hear about Russian soldiers being shot by their own commanders because they want to surrender



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,666 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    The place is (a) littered with scum of the earth Russian soldiers and (b) littered with mines and booby traps put there by Russia.

    I don't see any valid basis to assert they are putting their own population in any more danger than they currently face, either short or long term.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,839 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Rishi Sunak has said the UK "discourages" the use of cluster bombs after the US agreed to send them to Ukraine.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,128 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    **** off.


    Russia are using them, fight fire with fire.


    Wish these idiots would just keep their mouth shut.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    I reckon they will be that tightly controlled as to where and where they can't be deployed,they might not be the game changer people are thinking, Western tanks and IFVs haven't been effective as people originally thought either, they need to keep changing tactics until they find the right ones for the right situations



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,716 ✭✭✭storker


    Where on the map does it display Ukrainian tactics?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 287 ✭✭dennis72


    Ukraine needs more tools in the armory for any chance of an even fight

    Russia is throwing manpower at this war cluster the fcuk out of them they are better dead or maimed

    I suspect prigozen is dead but civil war is brewing Russian way is about strength putin's is finished.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    I'd be reluctant to say that any one weapon or system will be the one to make the Russians break. After all the Russians have been using cluster bombs and thermobaric munitions (TOS-1) since the start of the war and have found it very difficult to break Ukrainian defensive lines. They'll certainly help the Ukrainians, especially if the alternative was running out of ammunition but I think it's wise to manage expectations about what they can achieve.

    I also wouldn't bank on Russians breaking. If there's one thing they are experts in it is unquestionably absorbing suffering, often at the hands of their own leaders and commanders. Even when Russian units upload videos complaining about their conditions and leadership they often show an immense subservience to higher authorities. They either address the President directly or else they ask their relatives to petition local Governors or military officials. It's like they think that the problem is at a unit command level but the people higher up are either competent or compassionate. They don't seem to grasp that the entire system is rotten to the core.

    That goes for the people back in Russia too. All you have to do is watch a few 1420 videos to realise that people are either buying the propaganda or have completely checked out. Zero chance or a grass roots revolution there anytime soon.

    I would absolutely love to be proven wrong on any above by the way but that's my reading of the situation as it stands.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,616 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Yes, I imagine Ukraine has been told only to use them on Russian positions that are not near civilian areas. It's clear the counter offensive is going slower than some would like due to the time Russia has had to dig in, but I think the cluster bombs will lead to speedier gains by Ukraine once they start being deployed on the battlefield.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,616 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I think once it dawns on the average Russian Soliders that they are fighting for a loss cause many of them will fold. Putin at the moment is able to invoke the Stalingrad and Stalin doctrine of the heroic sacrifice for mother Russia but I feel a tipping point is coming. We have seen the cracks emerge with the Prigozhin rebellion. I feel once facts on the ground clearly demonstrate that Russia is on a hiding to nothing there might be a mass surrender of Russian troops and another attempt to remove Putin. I honestly can't see a halfway house solution here whereby America forces Ukraine to compromise and surrender territory. Putin has started something he can't finish and a day of reckoning is coming one way or the other for him. America has invested too much politically in all this for Putin to be able to declare any kind of Victory, which he will do if Ukraine does not claim back all of its territory.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,004 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    It sounds like these cluster bombs are ideal for Ukraine right now, as they grapple with a dug-in force. it’ll be very interested to see what difference they make.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,415 ✭✭✭Wolf359f




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,199 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    It would seem to me that the war is being fought on Russian terms. The attrition that an attacking force will suffer is greater than the territorial gains that are being made.

    And yet the Chief Sergeant of the 3rd Assault Brigade (recently seen in a widely circulated video taking control of Russian positions) says that their attrition rate is way lower than expected. In this video, https://youtu.be/zfpPl9_tjes from about 4min, he debunks a claim made by some propagandist, pointing out that while he's not authorised to give actual numbers, he can say that they'd prepared for an attrition rate of 14% per day but so far counting KIA & MIA-presumed-dead together, they're running at just 2% per month.

    The mythical "3-to-1" ratio has long since been rendered useless as a reliable statistic for this war, and you can see why in just about all of the trench-clearing videos. Teams of 4-10 Ukrainians go in and remove 20 Russians from effective combat; and rarely does any less than the original number of Ukranians come back alive. "Markus" also points out that most their injured return to active service; the same is not true for the Russians.

    All-in-all, everything seems to suggest that the Ukranians are quite happy with slow but methodical progress and minimal casulaties, whatever the ADHD Western media might want.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I've been wondering roughly what percentage of Russian artillery has been taken out so have tried to get a rough ball park figure.

    Using this as a starting point:

    According to the Military Balance — a database of global weapons compiled by the International Institute for Strategic Studies — Russia had more than 4,894 artillery pieces in 2022, nearly half of which were self-propelled.  

    (I'm assuming that that number includes MLRSs since no separate figure was given for those)


    The Oryx database gives a minimum eliminated figure, since that tracks all visible neutralisations. Their numbers are:

    • Towed Artillery - 250
    • Self-propelled Artillery - 441
    • MLRS - 230

    For a grand total of 921

    At the other end of the estimation spectrum we have the Ukrainian MoD's figures:

    • Artillery - 4,330
    • MLRS - 658

    For a grand total of 4,988


    That's quite the difference. Safe to say that the true number lies somewhere in between. The MoD's numbers seem overly optimistic purely because if true it would mean that the Russian's would have run out of artillery pieces. Clearly that hasn't happened and what's more there doesn't seem to be any rumblings that that's going to happen any time soon.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 233 ✭✭IdHidden


    Lol

    IMG_2950.jpeg




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 233 ✭✭IdHidden


    Ruble Euro parity.

    IMG_2951.jpeg




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,731 ✭✭✭saabsaab




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The use of cluster bombs is a non-issue. Russia is already using them. It's Ukraine's territory, if they want to use them - and take the risk of civilian casualities after the war - that's their decision to make.

    They''ll do some damage but they won't be a game-changer. They're being given primarily because USA is short on conventional 155mm ammo.

    Whoever controls the territory after the war will have some job clearing the place. But that's already the case.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Unfortunately it won't work like that when in a few months or years when Nato will be getting blamed for civilian casualties caused by them especially on children, it's nato who gets the blame and Nato will likely have clean up the mess afterwards.

    It's not as simple as it's been made out of be



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Nothing shows the gap in age between the Millennials running Ukraine and the gerontocracy running Russia than their respective media campaigns.


    Russian MoD messaging always takes itself so seriously. There's never any fun or humour in it. It's all about conveying "Russia Strong". It's often just looped footage of Russian soldiers in suspiciously clean uniforms on maneuvers or even just this guy reeling off a bunch of made up figures each night


    image.png


    In contrast, Ukrainian MoD messaging:




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Poland are clearly not using their Article 5 guarantee as an excuse to ease off on defence spending


    image.png




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,366 ✭✭✭dePeatrick




This discussion has been closed.
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