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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 114 ✭✭Dasein


    that's not true though, balance sheets are nothing like 08


    I don't get it, it's like people kind of want it to be like 08 ... maybe people who didn't experience the absolute carnage it caused to peoples' lives, I don't know

    it's like people that want housing to fall by 50% but don't realise that you'll probably lose your job and even if you don't, the banks won't lend to let you buy one

    like, the system is a cornucopia of unfairness, that I 100% agree with ... but if you can't bring that system down between the ages of 20 and 35 then you can get really badly screwed by sitting that time out ... it sucks, but I've seen it happen to too many people



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,326 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    I think your quote says the statistic is [also] about German companies investing elsewhere instead of Germany? Have I misread? Was there something else in article about "the Chinese" and "Arabs" (?) - if so please post!

    Anyway as have said before about such news the less the "the Chinese" (i.e the CCP) and "the Arabs" invest (or buy up) in Europe and the less Europeans + European businesses invest there, the better for us all IMO.

    More news of disconnection either way is a positive I believe so keep that coming BRICSter!

    edit: Also I think the only people who have had assets taken off them and ownership signed over to others (seized) post invasion of Ukraine are some Western companies that dealt with Russia e.g. Irish aircraft lessors who had their aircraft robbed. Russian assets in West are still in limbo, and afaik have not been seized yet unfortunately.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 426 ✭✭grumpyperson


    too often, in macro, negativity masquerades as intellect

    That's probably the best quote I have come across on boards.

    Although, I think we're in an extremely precarious position with a national debt much worse than 08, soaring interest rates and corporation tax increasing to 15%, you could be right in the long term, time it wrong and lose your socks.

    The euro seems to be in considerable trouble long term which could support asset prices if inflation continues but could also go the other way if unemployment increases and emigration becomes a factor again.

    I'm leaning towards an ascendant Asia/ Africa century with Europe/ USA struggling to maintain living standards. We're fortunate to have medtech in Ireland. It'll depend on where the multinationals want to locate and how much China absorbs. Giving up on manufacturing in the West was madness.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 114 ✭✭Dasein


    if I was young again and ambitious then I'd find it hard not to go East

    I was blown away by China and Vietnam when I went there - Shanghai literally makes london feel smaller than Dublin

    the opportunities are insane (though obviously there is a political angle that is less attractive)

    Post edited by Dasein on


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 21,738 Mod ✭✭✭✭helimachoptor


    unless China sorts out its demographics and quick, its got a shelf life and its not very long (in decade terms)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 114 ✭✭Dasein


    fair, but if you're 25 you just need 20 good years in china to have built quite a good life I suspect



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 114 ✭✭Dasein


    sorry, what?

    I'm too old to go, I've got a kid and have been successful working across europe as a fund manager

    my point, which I thought was clear, was that, having visited the East for work - if I was 25 now - I'd be tempted to go as I think the opportunities are huge; I don't really think median wages or house prices have much to do with that but you do you 👍



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,877 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Ive worked in Honk Kong and Singapore for a few years. Through my MNC job in Dublin.

    Immensely enjoyed the experiences.

    I was middle & senior management for my stints and was an SME on the projects/teams I was leading.

    I'm not sure what exactly would tempt a 22yo straight out of college to go over though. Certainly not in my line of work anyway(finance). Hours are long, work load is heavy, wages/cost of living is similar.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 114 ✭✭Dasein


    Fair enough. That's more experience than me of the area.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 114 ✭✭Dasein


    um, okay, you seem a bit passive aggressive about these things

    if you've never been there it's hard to grasp

    but sure, it's certainly not a utopia ... though for young people today there's really no easy street



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 426 ✭✭grumpyperson




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 21,738 Mod ✭✭✭✭helimachoptor


    For China it wont be a shock it will be a long road, I can see already factory workers are getting older and people are getting richer (relatively speaking).

    Lots of companies moving manufacturing to SE Asia (including mine).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,065 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Most successful businesses start in a recession.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 114 ✭✭Dasein


    nah, they are generally too short in time scale for that to be true; it still makes no sense to wait for one before launching your business; I'm sure change in business starts begins to accelerate near the end of a recession but these things are not things one would want to bank their future on



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 114 ✭✭Dasein


    IME 100% correct, people mistake a specialised intelligence/success with a type of omniscience. Americans particularly susceptible because they think money is analogous to intelligence

    I remember chatting to a v successful 1bln+ investor who told me that "surgery isn't that difficult and surgeons just do the years of training to make it exclusive so they can charge more" ... I'll never forget it, I did that face of the young girl in the car GIF. I was quite young at that time, working in private banking and that single moment changed my perspective on 'the wealthy'.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,065 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Waiting to do anything is a very foolish and sad thing to do, especially if it is important or just slightly so.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,079 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    A bit like the 'top' RTE 'Talent' - they believe their own hype and bullshit.

    Same also can be said for people on the other end of the spectrum too. I see a lot of up their own arse scientists/high prominent NGO officials with so called 'sway' not willing to believe or accept newly published independent research as it doesn't align with their beliefs and ideologies.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,964 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...we clearly need a good gutting in the hse to, as they have 'the talent' there to!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Eurozone PPI now 1.5% lower than 12 months ago. Some rollercoaster ride that was.

    pp.jpg


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 114 ✭✭Dasein



    the hardest working people I've seen in my life all worked in the HSE or NHS, nobody else even came close



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 114 ✭✭Dasein



    an ECB policy error is about as sure as sunday follows saturday

    they're as married now to rate hikes as they were to no rate hikes about a year ago 😂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,260 ✭✭✭amacca


    HSE???? Doesnt fit the narrative but perhaps....are they working hard at anything of use or is it too many middle management types working hard to invent things to make themselves look busy and necessary and leapfrog their colleagues while frontline staff do most of the heavy lifting


    I cant speak for the HSE but I think there's definitely mission creep in an area I used to work in......front line staff do most of the work, one or two at top level in managrment work like trojans (although some of what they do could be questioned as they are somewhat indoctrinated into box ticking admin culture meanwhile at least 50% of middle management just get in the way and cause stress/hassle for all and sundry.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,448 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    Remember the shills only get paid when you react to them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    “There were 8,400 corporate insolvencies in Germany from January to June, up 16.2% from the first half of 2022 and the biggest percentage increase in more than 20 years.”


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,448 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    Ireland had the highest lay offs in Europe for tech roles.


    Remember the shills only get paid when you react to them.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    And yet we have the lowest unemployment in the history of the state



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,609 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Be interesting to see the gross employment figures - are those people finding new jobs in Ireland or are they leaving?

    Much of the tech sector in Ireland relies heavily on immigrants, so many could job search in the rest of Europe.



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