A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120794743#Comment_120794743

One what is not happening soon ?

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120794743#Comment_120794743

Ever since 2001 they cut rates and or stimulate With QE.

The debt levels in the West as a whole keep accelerating.

There is no clear out of problems, so they only grow.

grumpyperson

Was chatting with a recruiter for web tech in Dublin. More applicants than jobs now according to her. A bit of a turn around.

I suppose a global recession is one that affects over 50% of the global population?

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120794873#Comment_120794873

I don't see what the big deal was about getting inflation to 2% as if that is a great thing. Zero inflation was far better and no printing trillions would not of been needed.

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120794873#Comment_120794873

The fear is it may not be a controlled burn I suppose.

Given all the rate cuts and QE etc etc

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120794911#Comment_120794911

Zero inflation has the potential to create a recession….maybe educate yourself self a bit as to why 2% is the target

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120795342#Comment_120795342

2% inflation rate has been the target for 10 years and all it has achieved is far higher inflation, trillions of debt that no one can afford and a recession. Sounds a bit like an epic fail to me.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120795479#Comment_120795479

The 2% target in the ECB was successful until recently.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120794911#Comment_120794911

There are good reasons why some, low, positive inflation has benefits.

There is a debate whether it should be 2%, some people suggest 4%.

Note that the recent inflation across the EU, during 2021-2023, is not mainly due to QE.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120794727#Comment_120794727

Like a forest fire, but a lot of creatures die before the renewal of life. A lot of damage done for a generation.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120794885#Comment_120794885

Have been armchair watching that space of diminishing tech jobs regarding ratio of applicants. Eg, there used to be plenty of Penetration Tester jobs advertised, that job opening description has all but vanished, with other infosecurity jobs featuring, some at basic enough level, others requiring tons of advanced up to date knowledge. There are other changes in tech job vacancy descriptions and AI is one influencer of this.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120795479#Comment_120795479

Agree

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120795731#Comment_120795731

I think this is happening in financial services too. I don't have proof, but I think recruitment has gone down substantially.

My friend works for a well known real estate valuations company and in her department couple of people left and none will be replaced.

brickster69

Italian industry starting to slow down and Germany is now at the same level as during the pandemic. Further interest rate rises is going to make it even worse you would think.

https://twitter.com/CavaggioniMario/status/1675774864328622080

herbalplants

Deloitte is calling for changes in income taxation :

"In its 2024 pre-budget submission, Deloitte said this could be done via an increase in the standard rate cut-off point to €50,000 and a reduction in the higher income tax to 40pc."

Acknowledge that even people on decent salaries are squeezed to the maximum.

Dasein

Thread over a year old now.

Fair play.

rob316

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120794107#Comment_120794107

Definition of a recession is a fall of GDP in 2 consecutive quarters. So say we went into recession, the economy stops growing for the next 2 quarters but we would still be at a very high level of GDP.

GDP fell by 14% after 2008, unemployment was 20%. That is a meltdown of the economy, its very different to a recession.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120799103#Comment_120799103

I dobt know why you and the other poster both replied to my OP giving definitions of recessions. I didn't ask what a recession was.

I asked when was Irelands last recession pre 2008? It was in response to your claim that recessions happen all the time.

dontmindme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120799455#Comment_120799455

Think it's more the case on this thread that people don't really know what 'horizon' means.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120798573#Comment_120798573

The higher income tax rate is 40%

Relax brah

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120798713#Comment_120798713

And has anything improved buddy?

Glenomra

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120800526#Comment_120800526

No, just a year closer to the inevitable recession. inevitable part of the economic cycle, no matter how long it takes.

SortingYouOut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120800674#Comment_120800674

Inevitable part of the economic cycle for a healthy economy. This thread is referring to a global recession though.

brickster69

China imposes export controls on a couple of materials in response to the Dutch and US controls announced last week

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/03/business/germanium-gallium-china-export-restrictions/index.html

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120794703#Comment_120794703

There are individuals who always believe a global meltdown or "reckoning" is coming and just around the corner, who are bamboozled by large numbers and scary sounding things, anything that supports that narrative, so naturally there's an entire mini-market that feeds that.

Then there is normal objective discussion about economic issues, global situation, inflation, etc. This thread contains some of the latter and an unhealthy dose of the former.

brickster69

Germany suffered the highest capital outflow on record in 2022. Foreign entities are moving cash out, i wonder why they would be nervous about investing there ? Maybe the Chinese and Arabs are getting nervous the way things are going and their assets could be seized next.

Better safe than sorry.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120801684#Comment_120801684

...yes there are and probably always been the serious catastrophiors, but we continually ignore well respected, well seasoned, and well informed commentators as was the case to the years prior to 08, and yet here we are again, largely ignoring such voices!

...theres clearly something fundamentally happening in the largely unregulated shadow banking sectors, i.e, pension/investment funds etc, which have becoming heavily leveraged since 08, and with rising concerns over commercial real estate, and the fact, central banks dont seem to be truly backing down on their negative effects in these sectors, by rapidly increasing rates,.....

...its completely understandable why people are voicing their concerns in such threads, 08 was a completely devastating event for most, yet it was actually foreseen by many, some are now actually very well respected commentators, academics etc, some of which have been voicing their concerns about the previous mentioned sectors...

...the reality is, very little has actually changed in the sectors that ultimately caused 08, i.e. the global financial sectors etc, and now we may have in fact pushed all its sh1t into the largely unknown, i.e. shadow banking, what do we really expect is gonna be the outcome here!

...yes we have absolutely no clue if and when this will blow up, but the reality is, it will more than likely blow up at some stage, and it probably wont be pretty! so why the fcuk are we allowing this to persist!

...and again, none of us truly understand these mechanisms, including myself, cause theyre simply too complex, but maybe we should try to listen to some of these well informed, measured voices....

...unfortunately some are now starting to see similar issues occurring to the beginning of 08, slowing down in building etc, so, who knows.....

Dasein

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120800526#Comment_120800526

well the thread says 'on the horizon' ... the horizon was further away than then thought I guess 😂

i've worked on markets for 20 years and this bearish narrative can be a very costly error to get caught up in; especially for those who get most attached to it (IME males 20-40) ... if you spend years waiting for a recession that takes a long time to happen then you can miss out on a lot of opportunity ... I made that mistake myself for a time and I wouldn't want others to do the same

too often, in macro, negativity masquerades as intellect

Dasein

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120802829#Comment_120802829

this is nothing like 2008

I was about 27 in 2008 and everybody I knew owned one house but most owned more; it was insanity on a scale that probably won't be repeated for a long long time

there's no doubt that things could slow down, that you get a drop in house prices, that unemployment ticks up etc etc but the idea that the IMF might need to come into the country is not credible, when I read comparisons to 2008 it only ever means the person making them doesn't understand 2008

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120802895#Comment_120802895

...again, yes, this is different to 08, but again, we may have just pushed a lot of the bullsh1t of the commercial financial sectors further into the unknown part, shadow banking, we simply dont know, effectively we may have in fact supersized the dysfunctions of the global financial system, and if it blows, we simply dont know what could happen, remembering pension and investment funds now play a much bigger role in our property markets, so....i.e. what if theres a major collapse of such funds, what happens then!