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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,972 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    and what do you think should be done yourself now in the immediate future?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,617 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    Lol, I see everyone is rowing in the same direction.....as usual



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,714 ✭✭✭Deub


    Exactly. It was also (maybe still is) rife in the crypto world. There is always this sense of urgency to take actions now because big changes were already in motion.

    Anyway, without more info on why and how this apocalypse would happen, there is no point discussing about it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    not discussing it will mean that they won’t be able to say I told you so and prove that they are more clever than the average man on the street… Eventually they may be right and at that point they probably won’t get that feeling of superiority that they are craving and instead wonder why they wasted so much time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    It's far easier to say where things went wrong, than to fix them when they have gone wrong. It looks to me and probably everyone who has been following events, that major central banks are on a mission to get inflation to 2% and will do whatever it takes to try and achieve that. So the politicians and bankers who created the problems will need to make things worse in the immediate future.

    Either that or inflation just comes down naturally which would be the best outcome. After all, everyone is now predicting it to come down in 2 years, so hopefully they have got that wrong as well.

    Not a great deal we can do apart from hope things improve quite quickly rather than get worse. Simple as that really in my opinion. What do you think ?

    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,972 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    Since it feature heavily in your previous post: I am glad that the EU took the actions and sanctions that they did on Russia. Sometimes you need to make a stand against tyranny on your doorstep - even at an economic cost. Were they perfect? No, sanctions never are. It simply couldn't be business as usual anymore though. Were the likes of Germany naive in putting all of their eggs in one basket? Absolutely. Better late than never though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 10,864 ✭✭✭✭893bet


    I see this constantly being touted on this thread also. The word boomerang being used etc. it’s a strange position to take. Sanctions were always going to hurt us aswell. Bizzare thinking that people thought they would only hurt Russia.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,102 ✭✭✭greencap


    Germany probably came out of its gas contract with Russia having saved a few trillion over the decades, minus the billions in costs when the gravy train eventually did crash.

    End result of the 'naivety' being massive savings/profit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    I don't think they were intentional. More a case of overestimating the effects of them and underestimating the effects on Europe's economy. especially.

    Who knows ?

    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,972 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    They were still naive though (or worse, in the case of Gerhard Shroder). Much like they were naive about shutting down all of their nuclear power plants but that's probably a discussion for a different thread.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,102 ✭✭✭greencap


    So they trouser hundreds of billions over the years. Yet they're naive. Naive and laden with bags of money when its all over. As tends to be the case.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,972 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    This isn't over. They still need to make a switch fully away from, while maintaining an industrial base that was built upon, cheap Russian gas. If they can pull that trick off then fair enough but it's going to take a number of years before we can say for sure.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Don't forget that big pipeline that goes from Norway to Germany also, if that goes bang it's definitely over.

    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,102 ✭✭✭greencap


    Well if its not over, and Germany have net profited thus far, then wheres the naive?

    I mean naive would generally require being done over by someone in some way or other.

    And to have been done over as a result of this deal would require some figure of losses on par with the gains which Germany has made since the 80's. Which must be in the hundreds of billions.

    So until that day comes, until at least even -$1 net is achieved, then where is the victim exactly? Ha ha Germany, you made lots of money. How naive of you.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,771 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...germany hasnt been bloody squirreling away profits, most of that money is probably long gone, relying on russian supplies has clearly caught them off guard, leaving them in an extremely precarious situation, energy issues are gonna persist for a number years, particularly during peak times, i.e winter, until alternative sources are found to stabilize supplies....

    ...this situation actually not only effects germany, but also the rest of europe, including ourselves!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,102 ✭✭✭greencap


    Long gone into education, industry and attracting fdi. The money swilling around Germany has long attracted yet more money again, as money tends to do.

    the oft parroted contention is that Germany was naive, that the German govt and industry leaders somehow didn't see what the strategic geniuses in the youtube comments section could.

    but the problem we have is that naivety would surely require a net loss of some kind.

    And Germany has been benefitting in their gas deal from a time before these internet parrots were even born. To a sum far exceeding the losses which the parrots point to. Which doesn't fit the naivety narrative.

    Like so much bullsht its never questioned, just parroted, Germany was naive and thats it. Nothing about the hundreds of billions saved by using cheap Russian gas for literal decades. Europes going to freeze. Russia has an awesome military. Germany was naive to do business with Russia. No context outside of this year. No investigation. No thought. Is it a fact, I don't know but everyone else is saying it so therefore it obviously has merit. Let me parrot it some more.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,972 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    it's not over - means that it's only the early stages of the transition away from cheap gas. Germany's economy is based upon cheap gas. Let's see how they adapt.

    Sure they did well out of the Russians in the past but eaten food is soon forgotten. Spain and Portugal were once the most dominant countries on earth. Argentina was once one of the top 10 countries in wealth per capita. Economic powers rise and fall all of the time. Sometimes it's luck but other times they are the authors of their own misfortune.

    Anyway I can see from your other response that you believe that anyone who thinks that Germany was naive to increasingly double down on energy from a dictatorial regime is just a parrot rehashing things they read in Youtube comments. Apart from being a stupendously arrogant thing to say it shows me that there's absolutely no point in trying to have a reasonable discourse with you on the topic so I'm going to leave it there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,102 ✭✭✭greencap


    Very well.

    However I will point out that those who are calling Germany naive, despite the large profits thus far, are doing so on the basis of a predicted future result.

    i.e. you have been labelled naive today because I (being both reasonable and not at all arrogant) can foresee a future result (which experts still speculate about).

    So you are pre-established as stupid based on my future prediction. And whether my prediction is in any way correct or not doesn't matter, and if its wrong it just disappears into the ether and there's no consequence for me.

    Great.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 426 ✭✭grumpyperson


    There's a thread to cheer for Ukraine versus Russia. Maybe that could be done over on those threads?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,771 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    interesting one from the good ould folks at the imf.....

    Inflation Drivers.jpg




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,146 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,771 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    no wonder we re seeing a dramatic increase in corporate taxes!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    ****ing hell, they are blaming climate change now. We are doomed lads.


    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,771 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...jesus theyre just atrocious, who the fcuk are they codding!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,697 ✭✭✭elefant


    Is she not just saying there that it contributes to it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,146 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Climate change does affect inflation, they have to cut down carbon sequestering trees in order to create paper that they then use to print magical money that in turn creates inflation - is this what she is trying to say.

    Absolute jokers to the highest degree, would be aswell of with Barney or the Moor Begs running the ECB.

    **** jokers



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Climate change does impact inflation…carbon taxes make oil and gas more expensive which in turn pushes up the price to make or deliver anything. How much cheaper would it be to heat a house or drive a car if carbon tax was taken away in the morning.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,398 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    She says climate change affects inflation, which it does.

    For example, climate change can affect food prices, which affects inflation


    Your Twitter link rephrases it and scoffs at that, a view you repeat. Having a quick look at the source and it's another one of these generic, anti-Western, anti-NATO, fringe randomers. Which itself is part of a pattern.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,146 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Correct, my main sarcastic point is that they can take accountability and 'own their $hit' or keep comming up with excuses of why inflation is high other than their own actions or lack of action back in summer 2021 when inflation began to rare its head.

    Same lady told the Irish people on the late late show that inflation came out of nowhere, time the stood up and took responsibility and accountability for letting inflation become embedded by being on team transitory for far too long.

    All major western CBs f'ed up back then, if the took a hard lined approach back then, inflation expectations would have been seriously curtailed, yes the War in Ukraine would have caused a bout of inflation but the steady core inflation from the summer of 2021 till the invasion would not have became embedded.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    In just 13 working days since the US debt ceiling was suspended they have added nearly $800 billion of new debt to the pot.



    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



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