Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I have come to the conclusion that the offensive is not working. Or, if it works, it will come and an unacceptable cost to Ukraine. The days of tanks rolling across fields is gone. If this war has taught us anything it is that assaults of this kind are not worth it. The ATGM has ended this kind of conflict. Already the conflict has reverted to attrition or 'accelerated attrition' as someone called it.

What should they do about this? I think that rather than using tanks, mainly, they should use artillery. They need to hit the Russians so hard they will be forced to retreat. For this the west needs to increase artillery production dramatically. Cheaper than F16s though. The Russians need to experience unacceptable losses until they retreat. Then the Ukrainians can move on to the next target. This worked for the Russians so it should work even better for the Ukrainians with precision artillery, fragmentation shells etc. That's my penny's worth. I hope I'm wrong and the Ukrainians have resounding success but I have my doubts.

If Ukraine was making serious inroads they'd rightly be trumpeting it for it's public relations value. They aren't because there hasn't been any significant advance by Ukraine. How many more days can they keep talking about the grand total of around 2 km in some places? They need a bigger result soon.

I don't know that the Ukrainians are in any time crunch here whatsoever though. I too have seen reports the Ukraine push is stymied by classic Russian Artillery, and I have seen where they tooted their horns when villages were behind the new lines. But I don't see any time crunch for them, it's Russians running out of munitions, tanks, troops (at a rate faster than Ukrainians), and morale. Ukrainians are flying home to Ukraine to fight in the war to follow their President, 'I need bullets, not a ride'; Russians are fleeing the country to avoid conscription. No there's only 2 real time crunches: the 2024 United States Presidential Election, and the limit of Russia's patience with Vladimir Putin. Ukrainians meanwhile will have generational levels of motivation, rivaling that of Israel or Palestine, to keep fighting this war until every inch of Ukraine is free. And core NATO countries (USA, Germany, France, Poland, etc) have pledged ongoing support, nobody is asking for a deadline.

https://americanindependent.com/republicans-congress-celebrated-fourth-of-july-russia/

Ukraine has taken more land back in the past 10 days as the Russians have taken this year.

And you want to replicate Russian mass artillery tactics? That's not going to work unless Ukraine are ok with shelling towns and cities to dust like the Russians have been doing.

100 square km liberated in 10 days with 30% armed forces committed. If it was working, what figures would you be expecting? You obviously have some wee equation for success vs failure.

100 square km over a 1500km front pretty much a very small gain ,be different if it was 100 km.s per day or week even,but we saw today more Bradley and leopards lost the same field as the last batch back on the 8th so they seem to be having some issues going forward,

But we have to remember this is a marathon not a 200m Sprint,it could take months to see any real gains and Big objectives secured

I don't hate the ordinary Russian people either, but the 'orc' slur is usually directed at their soldiers operating in Ukraine. The soldiers participating in the Bucha massacre or pounding Mariupol into dust may be human, but they're behaving with the utmost brutality, in a base and bestial way, without regard for the suffering of ordinary civilians. In their case, 'orc' is a suitable word.

If they want people to cut out the orc talk, the door out of Ukraine is thattaway ===>>>.

It doesn't matter which Republican wins in that scenario, the Republican party will kowtow to Russia.

The war is already at the top of western news. Money is still pouring in for the war. They are seizing hundreds of billions of dollars of russian assets. Materiel is still being actively delivered. Pilots are engaging in F-16 training. F-16s are planned on the way. The war from the Ukrainian side, is heating up, not cooling off. Russians are tearing up microwaves for computer chips.

Again, nothing is projected to change about this for at least the next 18 months, does Russia have 18 months of artillery? How much was traded for vodka?

Would be great if it was true, but in the article there's no mention of Shoigu saying that.. or least I can't see it. He said they need to build more tanks, which sounds like something you'd say when visiting a tank factory.

Also, whatever Shoigu or Putin say about the war, there's a 100% chance they're lying.

I think one thing about Russian tanks is a fact - they're losing many more than they can replace. But how many do they have left? I have no idea.

At this point it is not a question of whether the Ukrainians are making progress, it is a question of what that progress costs. A recent news item said their losses are 'substantial'. How long can they go with substantial losses? It is really a question of how much this offensive will cost them. If their losses are substantial all the way to the Black Sea what state will their army be in at the end of it?

@Wolf359f "You obviously have some wee equation for success or failure"

No but what I do have is a catalogue of Russian failures in their tank offensives. They don't work for the Russians so how will they work for Ukraine? I'm not saying they won't work, but if they do it will be at a terrible cost. My argument is that Ukraine needs to supplement their offensive with awesome artillery power. If they already have that all is good to go and I'm cheering them on but I'm not aware that they do have it and the west needs to give it to them. Even if the west can't do this they must do it and if it is impossible they must make it possible. Ukraine needs to lambaste Russian positions with artillery and force them to retreat. That way they won't lose so much.

What an absolute evil prick of the highest order.

Utter Bastards

So you're basis of it being a failure is a news report? Quite a few news reports of it being a failure, all quoting the same source..... Putin.

Only 30% of their armor is currently involved so far. Were you expecting them all to just charge the Frontline or maybe they are poking and prodding the front to find weaknesses. Everyone is fixated on Ukrainian losses around Zaporizhzhia while ignoring the success they are having elsewhere.

Maybe, just maybe AFU know more about what's happening than we and the media do. Maybe they know they would loose armor and not all assaults would be successful. Maybe they know they just need to find one weakness on the Frontline and then commit the rest of their forced to punching through it, rather than trying to punch through all 1500km of the Frontline etc..

That is sub-human.

Orcs it is.

@Wolf359f "So your basis of it being a failure is a news report"

No, I don't say it is a failure, I'm saying it is not succeeding at the moment. Or if it is, the cost is too great, especially in these early stages. They need some way of blasting Russian cannon fodder, without serious losses. Artillery seems to work for the Russians and Ukraine has great precision artillery but not enough of it. It seems 90% of dumb Russian artillery is wasted making holes in fields so Ukraine would only need a decent fraction of the shells the Russians have, but they don't seem to even have that.