Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Absolutely. The uprisings in the east were fomented by Russia as a means of taking the focus off of the annexation of Crimea. They were a means to an end. An open sore in Ukraine that Russia could keep poking. When this conflict started they showed their disdain for these regions by treating their menfolk far worse than actual Russians. They were press-ganged into the army almost immediately and then treated like dirt by regular Russian troops. They're given the worst of equipment and gear and when they're killed their families don't get any benefits.

The Russians don't even really believe their own decree that Donetsk and Luhansk are now officially part of their country - there are still border crossings and check-points between them and Russia! They're basically on a par with the people of South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transnistria to Russia. Useful geopolitical pawns.

Donesk and lughansk was just a toe in the door for putin,all around the two cities the majority of Russian equipment is based solely in population centers, artillery, intelligence, command and control bunkers are all in or beside apartment complexs and hospitals knowing that the Ukrainans wouldn't risk trying to take them out without causing large civilian casualties and turning more of the population against Kiev ,but then the locals know if they speak up they will be disappeared and thousands have already been disappeared over the last ten years in the region,they have fortified the area and set up massive mine fields so pretty much not to defend donesk and lughansk from agression but to slow any assault on either city ,go back to the 90s when ukraine gained independence Russian agents called a meeting to get support to break away from independent Ukraine,no more than 200 people from the region turned up and that was the end of that until Russians turned up in 2014 set up two break away republics the leaders of these new people's republic were all Russian Military and FSB agents not locals looking for some autonomy,

After this war Russia might be reduced to a lesser threat, but the real threat to the "west" will be China. Artillery shells (in huge quantities) might not be needed against them in a possible future conflict, but who knows?

In any case, pretty much every European country is now realising downsizing their military power was a mistake, and there are huge reinforcement projects on going - just look at the number of tanks and self-propelled howitzers (K9 Thunder) Poland is buying. Finland is buying more K9's as well. That means artillery shells will be produced even if it's just to reinforce European armies' stocks. Everyone also found out stockpiles run out quickly, so it's likely they will make ammunition reserves larger.

That's just in addition to obvious changes in warfare, such as drones and the need to counter them.

It's just that European decision making is slow - since there's no "EU army" (and NATO isn't fighting in Ukraine as such), it seems to be very complicated to decide which countries should start producing shells, and any delays will directly affect the amount of aid Ukraine gets.

Poland is playing there own particular game in all of this , massive modernisation across their whole military, hundreds of new tanks , artillery, HiMars, apache gunships,and now they announced today that they won't support the lastest candidate for the Next NATO Secretary general from Denmark instead they are demanding a secretary general be picked from one of the Baltic states instead, Poland See's it's self as the next big dog of Europe militarily and politically,

Interesting times ahead

The only truth from Russia seems to come out of one man

It should be someone from those countries, some one with skin in the game.

What utter nonsense. EU funds have transformed them. They won’t leave while they are benefitting on the gravy train. Germany biggest contributor, Poland was the biggest net recipient last year in the EU, they got 12.9B. Their government have been great on Ukraine but let’s not kid ourselves they’re awful. Them and Hungary are two peas in a pod, differing only on Russia. Cracking down on press freedom, judges etc. Declaring gay free zones in Poland which is just bizarre. Ironically copying a lot of stuff from Putin’s playbook.

Only recently they adopted a law that would ban anyone who they deem as having ties with Russia from running for office for 10 years, EU and USA criticised this because with their track record of cracking down on freedom it was seen as an affront to bar Donald Tusk the ex EU president from running in the polish elections.

EU to fund up to 85% of estimated 7B cost for the largest infrastructure project in the Baltic region for a hundred years is. The 870 km Rail Baltica project will connect the capitals of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia with Warsaw and the rest of Europe, allowing trains from the continent to run uninterrupted. While the Baltics used to be connected by European rail standards of 1435 mm gauge, since its Soviet occupation, the region’s rail system adopted the Russian gauge which is 1524 mm. I bet they just can’t wait to leave the EU lol. Utterly ridiculous.

And the EU scared of Ukraine starting a breakaway eastern block? Are you telling me Estonia, Latvia, Lithuanian and Poland the 4 net recipients of eu money are going to able to facilitate the rebuilding of Ukraine? On what planet would Ukraine take this route over the EU funding plus a massive free trade block of countries. Mental

someone with balls?

Can the EU afford the rebuilding costs for Ukraine, very unlikely.

Will Paris and Berlin agree to shift the power focus in the EU so far East, completely unlikely.

Will the Southern EU states agree to end funding for them as a very poor and now destroyed State is to join, not a hope.

There is no scenario where Ukraine is an EU member in the next 30 years

I'm pretty sure people in Ireland in 1995 on whatever paper version of Boards.ie at the time were commenting something like - "There is no scenario where Poland and Baltic states are members in the next 30 years."

You're asking the wrong question. As one of only 9 net contributors in the EU the question you need to ask is can Ireland afford the rebuilding costs?

The same way a German needs to ask can Germany afford the rebuilding costs.

These are not the same questions as asking can Poland afford it, for example.

They won't be paying, we'll be paying.

It will take many decades to rebuild Ukraine by both the west and Russia in the territories they hold.

It won't be seen as "rebuilding" really as the result will be so far in the future the war will be a distant memory.

And then there is the whole issue of corruption, another nettle that needs to be grasped before money is put in to repairing the place.

Ukraine will be deploying some of those reserved brigades to Kharkiv/Luhansk direction, from kupyansk moving northeast. They may get territory back that way, and disrupt russian supply lines through starobilsk. This would also draw more forces away from melitopol direction.

They may commit more to bakhmut direction also, there are still attacks going on north and south of the city.

The attack on melitopol and tokmak in order to cut the land bridge has been well choreographed for almost a year at this stage - everyone knows what the targets are, the approximate direction of attack, etc. There is no element of surprise here, so they need to force Russians to draw forces away to fill holes elsewhere.

Zelenskyy said the weather is holding them back. Lots of rain in the south this week.

The bigger the area of unrestricted trade and travel the better. From an economic view point. From a social and political standpoint it may be different. But Ukraine is a valuable country there would not be such a deadly war over it if it wasn’t.