Russia - threadbanned users in OP

If Russia really wants to annex territory, it just does it, as we've seen. They don't follow some sort of orderly integration timeline that dot's the i's and crosses the t's. Belaurus has close political, cultural and historical ties to Russia, in a similar fashion to Ukraine, but just like Ukraine, its people seemed to broadly prefer sovereignty, overall, even if it's nominal. Attempting to strip Belarus of that could blow up in Russia's face.

As ever, Russia is attempting to make up for its failure to cultivate soft power by locking down what's left of its former sphere of influence, regardless of how the peoples living in those regions may feel. I would say that Russia should tend to its own garden to attract the butterflies, but it's awfully hard to tend to those plants when you've novichok in one hand and an AK in the other.

Russia - 0 points.

Russia to appoint a puppet and attack Ukraine from the North?

Yep- a slow cancerous death to Putin and his children

Would be interesting to see. Belarus is currently strengthening it's army while showing no sign of joining the fight. Meanwhile Russia army is weakening and is fully focused on Ukraine.

If they decided to take Belarus by force and they fought against it they'd probably partially succeed. Lukaschenko being the weasel he is would probably formally ask Poland and Ukraine to help defend.

In reality they could probably hold Minsk and everything South and West of it. But would surely lose territory on the Russian border.

The Russians leadership think differently, they have a Stalingrad mentality, but this will reach a tipping point with the public soon when the Kremlin spin can't obscure the abysmal reality of this war. In time Putin, who was once seen as a master strategist, will be viewed worse than Mikhail by many Russians.

More

I noticed that too. Looks a bit computery to me.

The reason Lukashenko won't get his troops involved is because the army and the people wouldn't have it. They'll be outside the presidential palace by the end of the day. Even if he was killed and replaced by another guy who will do what Vlad says, the same scenario will take place. In fact it would be more likely to happen because the new guy wouldn't have the overall power of Lukashenko.

The only options for Russia to keep the status quo or to annex it, which will create another clusterfuck.

Cruise missile shot down

Any tips on good video mapping reports updating what's happening on the front.

I use these two already.

https://www.youtube.com/@andrewperpetua

Most recent UK intel release

TLDR: the Russian force now is worse than the Russian invasion force.

Well, yeah, and that's why anyone saying that the sanctions are not working do not know what they're talking about. Russia cannot easily replace its heavy equipment losses, thanks to those very sanctions and also endemic Russian corruption. Being that it's these things that actually do most of the killing on a modern battlefield, Russia will have major problems pressing forward in Ukraine.