Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

As someone who is buying a house now, I am definitely not going mad. What are else are we to do, there's literally nothing to rent in the town I'm buying. I can't start a family with my wife in the 1 bed flat I'm currently renting in Dublin for 1800 a month. And I'm not going to move in with my parents and start a family. I know I'm buying at what is probably, or very close to, the top of the market. As long as I stay employed, I'll be fine - I can't control anything else.

I don't think fools is appropriate, most people that purchased in noughties purchased for their families accomodation needs. They were victims not fools.

When we turn housing (a basic need) into a highly speculative market on speed, your playing russian roulette, it's only natural that there will be blood on the streets.

We are seeing the same behaviour now. New builds used to be the ftb market, now less than a third make it to ftb's. We then create a shared ownership where up to 30% + 10% ftb grant is covered by the state. What happens when all ftb are soaked up at these terms. Does the state go to 60% ownership with the occupant @40suppleat 40%.

Who does the buyer sell to, should the need arise, when the next buyer has to come up with 90% of the value?

The balloon is being stretched, it may not pop tomorrow, but, it will. That's guaranteed on current policies

Are all TDs economically illiterate or what?

It’s really interesting from a game theory perspective. Currently, the voting majority are FF/FG voters, but our demographics will flip in the next few years as the younger population become adults and a critical mass of under forties see how unachievable it is to buy their own home. So at some point in the next decade or so FF/FG will have to perform a complete 180 on elderly enrichment house value inflation policies. But not yet.

"And yet people still wonder why SF are surging in the polls at FF/FG's expense."

This economically illiterate policy is literally what SF were pushing for? They consistently push for ill-conceived poorly thought out policies, then when polling show these are popular FF have a tendency to leer towards the same brand of populism, pick some of them up and then get torn apart for how poor they are.

While I'd agree the parties of government shouldn't be doing it they're in kind of a lose lose situation where SF propose pie in the sky stuff and the government is either criticised for not doing it, or criticised for doing it which proves how bad an idea it was. See also: eviction freeze.

anyone know when this increase will take effect?

only got loan offer the other day , hoping to get everything sorted in the next 6 weeks

Recent buyers would probably fear negative equity far more than established home-owners. Someone who bought a house in Dublin for 100k over the asking price in the last two years is likely very worried about falling prices as they'll be saddled with a pile of debt that cannot clear at a time of rising interest rates.

I bought a house last year, but I would still like to see prices fall. I would lose out, but it's better in the long term.

The really interesting figure to watch for in this is the home ownership rate, which is declining rapidly. A quick google is only giving me figures up to 2016, but even it is illustrative:

"the last census showed the percentage of households that owned their home outright or with a mortgage fell from 75% in 2006 to 67.6% in 2016".

That trend has only accelerated since 2016 too, I'd presume its under 60% now. Not all of those remaining 60% of home owning households support price increases either - lots would have kids in their 20s/30s living at home unable to move out now.

Once the home ownership rate drops below a certain point then the political pendulum will swing rapidly to measures to reduce house prices, because its what the majority of voters will want. Its going to be very interesting to watch things unfold when that happens.

Ironically its essentially the exact opposite political trend that Thatcher pushed in the 1980s - the idea then was to help working/lower middle class people to become homeowners because they would then vote for the Conservatives. But FG&FF's property policies over the last two decades have done essentially the opposite - they've deprived an entire generation (or two) of the opportunity to become homeowners, so instead those people are turning to left-wing political parties (SF).

houses are not disappearing with every death.

if you’re a homeowner in a job, there is zero incentive to vote SF unless you’re a core voter (republicans diehard).

Wonder are the latest figures attributable to the drop in rental properties. How are those people who would be renting, but are not because of no stock available accounted for.

Those in emergency accomodation, returned to parents house, multi family dwellings etc

November 2022

My figures are from the Oireachtas Parliamentary Budget Office, which uses CSO data:

https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/parliamentaryBudgetOffice/2022/2022-01-12_snapshot-of-the-housing-market-in-2021-part-2_en.pdf

I've no idea what the website tradingeconomics that you're using is, but their data is wrong.

Social housing tenants don't support house price increases either though. They don't own their own homes so costly measures in the budget to prop up house prices are no use to them, they'd rather that money spent elsewhere that actually benefits them. Which more left-wing parties promise to do.

Thats the rub for FF/FG - the only voters who support continual increases in home prices are home owners. And home owners without immediate family members forced to live with them because of a housing crisis at that. Which is fine in state with 75%+ home ownership rate and a reasonable rental market like we used to have, but in a state approaching 50% home ownership rate with a completely broken rental market its not going to be a viable electoral policy.

The very defnition of a Turkey voting for Christmas :)

Id say if also if you are worried about inheritance tax, building your own house or even buying a site, you better avoid SF too.

Actually better to just avoid them if you are even a tax payer.

You will find very few people who ever bought that think it was a bad idea.

You will even find a hell of a lot of people who bought in 2005, 6, 7,8 who thought it was a very bad idea for a few years after who will now have decided that it was a great thing that they bought when they did.

There were some who got burned and had to sell at a loss. But now we all know that once you buy you can ignore the bank if you fall on hard times after and wait it out.