Russia - threadbanned users in OP

The warhead is the simplest part of the missile and likely the one part they have the least problems producing, so the idea theyd waste missiles of which they have few just to save a warhead doesn't really make sense.

Guidance and propulsion systems are far more onerous to produce than the warhead

On the air defence thing, I think it was coming from reports on the leak of US secret documents (?). One of them claimed Ukraine is running low on ammunition for their Soviet air defence systems (S300) [e.g. below link], which is not really a shock if true.

Would expect the ex Soviet equipment is not sustainable long term unless it is something that the former Warsaw pact states in Europe can make large amounts of now to keep them going (or something worthwhile for their backers to try and increase production of). To me it seems they need to be moving over to NATO weapons Western countries backing them can support fully into the future (incl. aircraft), regardless of all these nebulous remaining fears of Putin going (more) crazy or Russia collapsing into chaos if the Western weapons Ukraine gets are somehow "too good/too much" and provoke a rout.

On the artillery, no link but [same as yourself] anything I've read over last while says Russia is not as profligate as it was being a few months ago.

“Without more evidence”

This is a start now go and analyze which decoys actually fell last night.

I can’t dispute that but hoping that they’re so short on missiles they’re depleting their own nuclear capabilities, seems yknow, very optimistic. Even if it’s true I’d wait to be pinched to believe something so scintillating. That said it’s not as if the US itself doesn’t have nuclear weapons that deploy on otherwise conventional missile vehicles like the tomohawk etc. so it’s not infeasible Russia would Rob St. Petersburg to pay Paul.

Why would the UKr initiate the offensive by attacking the first , second and third defensive lines. That seem s to be all the talk here and the difficulty of breaking through it with its dragons teeth, mines , deep trenches, etc. Could the Ukr not, first of all , use the new armour, tanks ,etc, with longer ranges than befoore attack Moscovy supply lines, equipment , arms stores,etc BEHIND the Moscovy defence lines.

as a aside , do the Ukr also fire decoys to locate where the Moscovy radar systems are?

"The Ukraine" is what Russian speakers call it lol

"Why dont they just skip 3 lines of russian defences and attack their supply lines instead?" Correct me if im wrong, but was a teleporter one of the equipment transferred to Ukraine by the west? I dont think so

20k Russians killed and 80k injured in the last 5 months according the the Americans.

There's a theory,I think it's interesting. That Russia is trying to goad Ukraine, into starting the offensive early. That's explains the increased strikes.

I assume the technology exists to create a cheaply produced ‘radar system’ that behaves in ‘ the same way’ as a real radar system and that can be placed ‘in the middle of nowhere’ and that can be remotely controlled and that is mobile. The Moscovies would then use their live arms to destroy it. But if it is constantly on the move the Moscovies might use a lot of ammunition to try and put it out of action and the UKr can trace the source of this ammo and do the necessary

Everyone and their dog (including the Russians) seem to be expecting the attack to come from there, which makes me think it's exactly what won't happen.

I am totally spit-balling here, but there's still only a 15-20 km between the Ukrainians and the two major Russian controlled roads that are going into Bakhmut. I don't know how well defended these areas are, but imagine if Ukraine cut these and 9-10 months of Russian gains being wiped out in say a month.

We'll see what happens, but I am expecting Ukraine to try something unexpected.

Melitopol is the lynchpin for the to the occupied territories and Crimea,they would be wasting valuable men and equipment trying to take it back,(bakhmut)

There's bigger goals they need to take first

Ukraine have been attacking near Kreminna for almost 6 months - they got close for a while but have been pushed back halfway to the Zherebets since.

The Luhansk region is the one Ukraine have been attacking the most in the last year following their success in Kharkov oblast.

They havent tried to push on in Donetsk or Zaporozhye yet, so most likely one of those regions will be focus of a new offensive.

Someone just shared that meme the other night about Russian freedom of speech.