Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

As usual the main stream headlines completely miss the mark. The switching activity is irrelevant, jumped as people locked in low rates. Should fall towards 0 now as why would anyone choose to switch when all fixed rates will be below market rates anyway.

Big story is the FTB approvals which are actually a bit scary.

Number of people getting approved up 36% on same month last year and the highest of all time other than spike at end 2020 when COVID backlog flushed through.

But even more crazily. After falling late last year average approval values hit 293k. 5% higher than their summer 2022 peak.

Add that more people are getting mortgages, and when they do, they’re getting bigger approvals and you get that the total mortgage approval values in March 2023 for first time Buyers is 11% higher than any month since records began and up 25% on the same month last year. That is truly staggering.

So much for interest rates causing lending to cool off. Difficult to see anything but a fairly material growth in house prices as long as more and more money is being pumped into the system.

Everyone’s worst fears with the LTI increase (plus wage inflation) being realised fairly quickly.

A sign of the times we are currently living in. Property owners concern that there apartments can't be sold/let for social and affordable purposes.

Just to show that Gov have created the most expensive social housing policy ever and how attitudes to social housing in the past have come back to kick owners in the rear end

You could not make this stuff up!

interesting to see IMF pushing rate rises while at same time warning:

IMF warns of ‘disorderly’ house price corrections in Europe as interest rates move higher

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/28/imf-warns-of-disorderly-house-price-corrections-in-europe-amid-high-rates.html

I wonder what scheme the government will conjure up next to maintain demand and current price levels. Increase lending limit to ×5 times?

Yep - fortunately we won’t see a return to 100% mortgages but loosening the LTIs to allow people to borrow more just as rates started to rise at a pace never seen in history and inflation erodes people’s disposable income.

I really can’t understand the thinking. I know it was under pressure of people in the ‘rent trap’ and to keep building viable. But the timing could not have been worse. Discussed at length on here I guess.

We have to trust the banks themselves impose reasonable restraint as individuals won’t. They’ll borrow what they’re given.

4x is probably still serviceable at current levels but if mortgage rates do tick up above 5/6% (I don’t think they will at the minute, but who knows) then we could be in for some real pain.

Of course the saving were never going to be passed. I think we all knew that. The state is using tax-payer funds to subsidise developers, who will presumably rent or sell many of said properties back to the state for premium rates.

It often hard to know. I have stopped bidding at different times on things and they always end up sold. Back I in the 2009-12 period was the only time I ever say deals not happening on bids in large amount.

''You pays your money and takes your chances as the sayings goes''.

The reason the auctioneer may want bids fairly fast is the property is near enough where the vendor wants in price and the vendor may be willing to close the sale so the auctioneer will not want to hang around.

Did he originally give you the wrong info, maybe, however you may have two bidders that just got stuck in( unlikely but it can happen)

Limerick has the second highest income level after Dublin. However it trails Cork and Galway on house prices.

Is it under or over valued??

Seems to be, I agree.

Absolute insanity out there at the moment. Outbid on 2 properties in last couple of weeks. First was a tiny gaff in an alright area and would need about 80k put into it. Nice enough size garden but house itself is depressing beyond belief. 2 people still bidding away on it now way beyond after I pulled out.

The other was a wreck, needs minimum 120k put into it. All sorts of issues to be uncovered but would qualify for gov vacant property grant. Mid terrace at edge of fairly rough area of Dublin. Grotty end of the street and similar house in far better condition and much nicer garden on street sold for 470k in march. Bid up to 450 and had to drop out as anything beyond would eat into renovation budget or would have to borrow more.

It's desperate times out there right now. Far far worse than last year and seems higher interest rates are having absolutely no effect on folks. Genuinely finding it difficult to imagine how much worse it could get.

Exactly, think of how much longer it will go on like this? Madness will eventually die down. The money tree may loose it's leaves.

This guy stating different scenario