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So "X" - nothing to see here. Elon's in control - Part XXX

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,772 ✭✭✭silliussoddius


    ....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,886 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,886 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 478 ✭✭Run Forest Run


    So, you're saying there is ample fuel to keep a platform going then...?

    This is exactly what I have been saying.

    It doesn't really matter whether it's dominated by one tribe or the other. Once there is plenty of loonies making a fool of themselves, then twitter will be doing just fine. I think Musk understands this very well... he's been an intimate part of it for a while now. He gets the mass appeal, and it's mostly cringe media. He has just shook the place up a bit, and welcomed in more of the oddballs from the other tribe! 😂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,914 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    If true, the only strange thing is that he made it something so easily linked back to himself.

    Then again, with his ego, probably not that strange....



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,032 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Except hes still not making enough money to keep twitter in the black let alone service the debt hes loaded the company with



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,883 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    No there isn't , not even remotely close to it.

    That's why "Truth" Social , Parler , Gettr and all the other echo chamber social media environments are failing badly.

    Advertisers won't touch any of the above with a barge pole and Musks Twitter is well its way to Advertising no-mans land as well.

    People paying for blue ticks won't even cover keeping the lights on at Twitter, let alone help pay for the massive borrowing costs that Musk loaded up on to the books when he decided to grossly over pay for it at $54.20 per share because he needed to get 4-20 into the offer price "for the epic memes".

    Twitter will survive for as long as Musk is willing to burn cash to keep it afloat , in its current form it will never get close to breaking even.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Of course I understand the different models of YouTube and Netflix, not stupid! I would query which financially works better and I doubt if anyone knows the full story there.

    What is apparent and what you and others seem to be wishing away, is just how you run a service like Twitter and make it pay? What's your idea?

    It's quite understandable that media services like this start off as free as various portals vie for market share. But as things mature, the costs of running & developing them further escalate.

    Advertising works to a certain extent, when it's new to a site and adverts are thinner, they have impact. But you start selling more & advertising and those purchasing same start to see diminishing returns. You can't flood a social media site with adverts.

    So how do you finance the likes of Twitter or on a much lesser scale Boards here? Either a) a large benefactor, philanthropist b) the state i.e. taxpayer or c) subscriptions from those who use the service?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,883 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The whole problem is that the age of pure social media is over to a large extent.

    As people have become more and more aware of privacy and the data that they share online, the models historically followed by Twitter & Facebook are increasingly weakened.

    The value to advertisers was not so much showing the ad , it was showing the ad to a very specific person based on all the data that was being captured by Facebook and Twitter.

    Their ability to do that is massively reduced today, both by legislation and by larger companies like Google & Apple making it much easier for end users to restrict access to that data.

    Facebook are trying to diversify into the Metaverse (which is already a bust) but Twitter really doesn't have many options.

    People are just not going to subscribe to Twitter in anything like the required volumes to meet the costs and advertisers are also running away because they don't want to have their brands appearing in toxic tweet threads and also because Twitter (and everybody else) are unable to offer them the level of targeting that makes sense for the brands.

    So , the only route really is the "rich benefactor" path you mention above.

    As I said in an earlier post , Twitter will last for as long as Musk (and his fellow investors) are prepared to burn money to keep it afloat.

    It would have lasted much much longer had Musk not burdened it with billions and billions in additional debt mind you.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,914 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    I'd also tack on to that that another money-generating feature that Musk has introduced is the ability to subscribe to some Twitter users, where those users would essentially put some of their content behind a paywall and you can only view it by subscribing to the individual user. However any users who want to generate more income from their content likely already have a Patreon, or Substack, or any of the various "tip"-type systems in place.

    What bonus content are you going to get from, say Musk's subscription? Get to see recycled memes from Reddit and 4chan?

    I don't know how profitable Twitter was before Musk took over, or indeed how much money it was losing which I believe was the case. But the best course of action would have been increase ads (slightly, not enough to annoy people, but enough to get a bit more revenue), increase the cost of ads, and reduce overheads of the company. Musk has shown there was clearly a bit of fat which could be cut off. I think he's likely gone too far with that in ways that will eventually become evident, and the site has definitely been more glitchy with more downtime than before he took over, but there was likely operational costs which could be cut regardless.

    But as Quin_Dub said, Musk has burdened the site with billions in debt. You cannot take a free service which people have used for free for 10+ years and suddenly start locking all advantages of the site behind paywalls and subscriptions without causing an exodus of users who have numerous other sites to go to instead, thereby also affecting ad revenue in the meantime (even ignoring how he p*ssed off so much of the existing advertisers which was a huge portion of their income).



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 478 ✭✭Run Forest Run


    I guess we'll find out in due course.

    There is no doubt that many people who hate Musk, want to see him fail spectacularly... but then we've seen the predictions about his other business endeavours that haven't come to fruition either. I have a feeling twitter will trundle along just fine for many years to come. Which will obviously annoy quite a lot of people... but hey ho, that's life!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,914 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    Hey as much as I dislike Musk myself, I hope Twitter keeps going. For what I like about it, it still operates as I want to use it for (ie. never ever talking to anyone or discussing anything or posting anything myself, but just following accounts for general news, info, jokes etc) and is always one of my go-to sites throughout the day.

    And it's one of the best places for people making fun of Musk, so win-win.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Yeah, I'd agree largely with that. There's only one way costs develop with services like these and that is upwards.

    The problems with the benefactor or state subvention models are obvious.

    These issues are not confined to Twitter of course, I'd be watching Google as time goes on. It provides a lot of 'free' services that are expensive to develop and maintain. OK commercial use is charged for some services. Whilst advertising and data mining is used to generate income from more general public users. But will it always be like this? I'm not so sure, there is a lot of value in Google services and many people leverage off them freely to generate income. When services become indispensable, then we may see subscription or pay by use charges coming in there too.

    What I laugh at the protests from Twitter users who use the service professionally and yet who think they should not pay something towards it out of some sort of principle. Ask them to put their hands in their own pockets to fund some service freely and they'd run a mile.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,883 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Like I said , Twitter will go on for as long as the people who funded the takeover are prepared to lose money, or at least not get their investment back.

    That could be 6 months or that could be 20 years, but it's entirely up to them.

    What is pretty clear though is that Twitter is extremely unlikely to ever generate sufficient revenue to cover its annual costs and debt obligations.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,883 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    There is probably a model there where people have to register as a "commercial entity" or whatever and pay for their accounts if the primary use is business promotion - But if I was a company paying for my account on Twitter I'd want guarantees that no adverts for my competitors are going to show up next to my tweets etc. so it wouldn't be a simple thing to implement.

    But asking regular users - who are the ones that generate the interactions that make Twitter its ad revenue , to pay for the privilege of using the service isn't a pathway to growth and sustainable revenue.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,781 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    What I laugh at the protests from Twitter users who use the service professionally and yet who think they should not pay something towards it out of some sort of principle. Ask them to put their hands in their own pockets to fund some service freely and they'd run a mile.


    If you don't understand this, then you have no concept of the problem. It's like you turning up for work and paying your boss for the privilege of working there.


    I did think of one way Twitter could have made more income, but the ship has already sailed as Musk has ruined everything😁

    For want of a better phrase, a cross-contamination of media. You subscribe to a purse that you control, twitter takes x% of each deposit. Now, when the like of the Irish independent, Times etc. puts up an article behind a paywall, you can unlock just that article by going through twitter and clicking the link. Instead of paying for an annual or monthly sub, you get to choose what content to pay for. Papers make a little bit more money, but also can tailor their content to what makes money. Eventually people may realise a subscription works out cheaper, and subscribes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,673 ✭✭✭Cordell


    Yeah that won't work, the media behind the paywall doesn't want to sell you an article, they want your repeat business for a long time. Just like the streaming services who won't sell you just the film or series you're interested in, because they want you hooked for more.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,883 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    I'd tend to agree , but there's definitely scope for partnership type deals where there are shared benefits across subscriptions.

    Like , if you subscribe to a newspapers premium offer you also get access to the Twitter subscription and vice versa - Something like that.

    The value proposition of paying $8/month for just Twitter really isn't there for the vast vast majority of users.

    97% of Twitters content comes from ~25% of the accounts and 82% of that is replies and retweets (which are 50% of the total).

    So right out the gate , 75% of users have next to zero to gain from subscribing to Twitter as being able to edit etc. is of very limited value.

    If they want people to subscribe to the service , they have to make it worthwhile and right now it just isn't.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,781 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    Except I can already pay for single items from prime, apple+ etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,914 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    Part of the problem with so many different sites etc having a subscription model is that consumers then become a lot more picky about what services they subscribe to. Netflix had the streaming market sewn up, but because more and more companies started their own subscription streaming services, piracy has risen substantially because people don't want to or can't afford to have all the streaming services. Likewise with news websites or social media, people will use them all when they're free, but when they start paywalling behind subscriptions, people will pick one or two and not visit the rest.

    When it comes to social media, subscription is an even harder sell, because the whole thing about social media is being able to connect with as many other accounts as you want, and people have accounts on different social media sites. Once they start going behind subscription services, the main benefit of social media is gone because everyone will disperse to different sites (if at all). And while you get news from news sites, films/tv from streaming sites etc, social media is going to be something a lot of people just don't pay for.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 478 ✭✭Run Forest Run


    We'll see...

    I don't think he bought it purely as a vehicle for making profits. But I think he'll find a way to make it a financially viable operation - by hook or by crook as they say.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,032 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Its nothing to do with financial viability, the issue is the debt hes lumbered the company with. He likely could make it financially viable and at the very least break even but on top of that servicing 1 billion dollars of debt this year alone is a task he is nowhere close to reaching.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,883 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    He didn't buy it because he wanted to , he bought it because he was forced to by the courts , let's be fair here.

    I have no doubt that he'll try to find some way of making money from it , but none of his ideas thus far are going to do that.

    His idea of a WeChat clone - this "Everything App" thing is a bust as well, it's just not viable.

    WeChat exists only because the Chinese has banned or blocked every single potential competitor from the only market that WeChat operates in - Mainland China. It is non-existent anywhere it has any competition.

    Who knows what idea he might or might not come up with in the future , but I wouldn't hold my breath.

    Musks gift is in marketing and promotion , it's not in Product design.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Grand, so how do social media / news sites pay their way?

    As it stands, it appears that the likes of Twitter would collapse overnight if Musk just cut his losses and pulled out.

    I'm not sure what the answer is but I do know that data and information has value and it's simply unsustainable for the public to expect long term to have free access to data and information at their fingertips. Was a time when you wanted to know something, that you found and asked someone knowledgeable or you bought or borrowed a book or watched & observed. All required effort and often some cost. The fundamentals of that have been pushed aside for a number of years but it can't last.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,914 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    "Grand, so how do social media / news sites pay their way?"

    Advertising and Data Licensing.

    "As it stands, it appears that the likes of Twitter would collapse overnight if Musk just cut his losses and pulled out."

    Well yeah, Twitter is now privately owned entirely by Musk. He's not an investor in it, if he pulls out the company closes unless he sells it off.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Advertising - losing it's shine on social media as pointed out above. Between saturation, legislation and ad blockers and so on.

    I can't recall purchasing any product or service this year based on a social media advert. I might click on the odd one that catches my eye but that's been it. How about yourself, do adverts work with you?

    Obviously they work to some extent, if not purchases then building brand awareness. But all businesses use metrics to decide on how to spend marketing money. And when it pales, they pull.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,914 ✭✭✭✭Penn




  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,883 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Agreed - It's a dying business which makes the amount Musk paid for Twitter all the crazier.

    There is a possible narrow pathway via the influencers - If Kim Kardashian or whoever is getting $X from some brand or other to tweet that she loves the product , then Twitter should probably be getting a piece of that fee as it is in effect an advert they are displaying. But working out how that works would require very subtle and targeted pricing and attribution.

    But asking people to subscribe to your service so you can monetise their activity just isn't going to fly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,106 ✭✭✭Christy42


    I would add that twitter blue makes twitter actively worse for most of the 75% who don't really tweet. They go to twitter for the content they see there. If that content reduces in quality then it makes their experience worse. Hence the block the blue tick movement as it became a quick and easy way to filter out a lot of undesired content.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,106 ✭✭✭Christy42


    I am not sure I have ever done it and clicks in tend to be misclicks. Right now my boards ads are all the same idea based off of some searches yesterday. However I have already made up my mind on what I will buy so not sure they will get anything there. Maybe subliminal and I don't know it.


    In any case that is the market Elon paid to get into. Maybe if they could get a cut like youtube memberships (I am not a member so not 100% on what they do), twitch, patreon subscriptions but tweets are less content to pay for than videos. Potentially you could make it much cheaper. In any case just because he bought into a questionable business model does not mean anything he subs in is a good idea and this was obviously a bad idea months ago. People got annoyed and insisted that big shots would go crawling back for a blue tick. Then it was a mess with no verification and had to be redone. The price was lowered and now the big shots get it for free and are still unhappy as twitter was saying they had paid for it (essentially trying to fake endorsements).

    If your new source of income is just people emotionally invested in you succeeding as opposed to being able to provide a worthwhile product then you are onto a loser.



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