Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Crimea is what Russia probably wants most out of all of this, but is also their most precious position if Kerch is taken out along with the land bridge. Historically Crimea is a massively difficult challenge to invade and I fully expect the Russians might leave the DPR and LPR to their own devices and move most of their forces to Crimea to try to prevent a takeover.

Crossing the 2014 trenchlines and fighting for Donetsk in particular would be a massive headache for the AFU that even with all of the new Western armour. I think we’d probably see a creeping advance towards the actual Russian border that might take another year or two, assuming the local “People’s Republics” are abandoned by the main Russian army.

But this is all assuming the Russians can even manage the logistics of moving their main forces to Crimea and most important, keeping them supplied. I don’t have much faith in their abilities there.

Crimea would be tricky to supply especially with the kirsch bridge gone or badly damaged again,boats and aircraft would be the quickest options but if the Ukrainan get close enough it won't be safe for aircraft or boats to get across to it , and HiMars can destroy any of the bases infrastructure too , it's possible to completely isolate forces and the population at the same time

Again...

I fear this might be the case if Ukraine can fight all the way to the actual border. They’d have to entrench and fortify the border against an increasing unstable Russia which at this stage can’t be trusted to abide by any peace agreement without major changes within their leadership.

What Ukraine has started and might continue, is the enablement of anti-Putin Russian partisans who are equipped and trained to Ukrainian standards. An active insurgency against the Kremlin may serve them just as well as an actual land invasion of Russia proper.

Shame it didn't go off now they'll just find a way to launch it at Ukraine again.

Let's not underestimate their stupidity

Has to be done, we've seen security guarantees such as Budapest only give a false sense of security. It is Russia that has pushed Ukraine into NATO by leaving it no other option to preserve its sovereignty.

Does that mean they were dudds?

I wouldn't bet on that.

Orban holds a card in nato along with Erdogan,

Sweden aren't nato members despite being prime candidates thanks to Erdogan who still hasn't said a thing about planned Ukrainian attacks on Russian forces in Syria with Kurdish forces help,

Last thing we need to see is the Turks pivoting towards putin

That post above about Russian business owner's burning their properties to claim insurance is far more plausible then partisans. Especially places that don't aid the war effort.

NATO will keep the ship steady for now but I hope there's a reckoning after this war ends. Hopefully they create a NATO 2.0 and disband the old one. New members can join as long as they get a 75% vote. Everyone free to leave if they don't like it. That would soon end the power of rogue's like Hungary and Turkey. Currently they're entirely at their mercy.

The fact Sweden of all countries can't get in shows how easily this defensive alliance is to sabotage.

Welcome to the latest account

It’s ABSOLUTLY pure nonsense that Ukr cannot target any kind of a missle launched from any ship - even if positioned in any part of the Black or any other sea. I understand that this is because of American policy. The same should go from any land based missle launcher in Moscovy itself. It’s the same as having YOUR TWO HANDS tied behind your back. As things stand Moscovy can bang away from its own territory deep into Ukr territory and the UKr can do nothing about it