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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 480 ✭✭Ramasun


    The lasting image of this war is going to be John Deere tractors towing T-72s. Cow towing? ..I get it now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Look at the numbers they are blowing through at the moment,I remember correctly the Ukrainans are going through 210,000 shells per month,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,489 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,252 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The leaks are probably nothing the Russians don't already know anyway. It's not a good look but I don't think the leaks are damaging to Ukraine really in any practical way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,489 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,580 ✭✭✭XsApollo


    The US might get tired of sending money , but they won’t get tired of sending weapons.

    the benefits of sending weapons over money is that Russia is losing its military and slowly dying, also sending weapons means that they need to be replaced, which in turn keeps all those massive Defence companies in the US ticking over.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,293 ✭✭✭ZeroThreat


    Pity low IQ dimwits such as DeSantis, Greene etc. haven't realised this yet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Some of it is junk, but the main issue is they can't access the stuff physically. The only sizable airport is in Moldova proper, not Transnistria, and They would never get permission to use it. Russian aircraft wouldn't be allowed to overfly any countries to get to it either. Road and rail likewise.

    And if that weren't enough, Ukraine would likely intervene. That arms dump is in the village of Cobasna, which is on the border with Ukraine with an actual border crossing there.



  • Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    And you keep foregtting that Russia have 5 times more as usual,and you also keep forgetting that US and many European countries have elections coming up this year and next year.

    And Politics as you know doesnt always favor Ukraine unfortunately,it will most likely end up negotiating

    Like i said before alot will be decided on Ukraines last counter offensive,if they succseed or not.

    Ukraine will not give up regardless,thats for sure,but it remains to see if they will get the same support as they have gotten so far.

    The good thing is that China atleast have stopped their support to Russia,,atleast thats what they say.

    But ther could be some 3 world country that will sell ammo to Russia

    Ukraine is regardless under alot of pressure to succseed in their last offensive,but as i heard,they have somehwere between 200-400k troops ready for the offensive,so they should have a great chance to break trough the russian defences and succseed.



  • Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Thats possible if Russia doesnt get ammunition from elsewhere,and i guess China is out of the picture now,but there could be other 3 world countries that have stocks to sell to Russia.

    Russia still have huge ammo depots from the soviet era,but i dont know how much of it is depleted or gone out of date



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  • Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Imagine Ukraine having the fighters the nordic countries have now after they joined together in a joint airforce

    If Ukraine doesnt get NATO membership i am sure something similar would be made with their neighbours




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,251 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Obviously you cant see the bigger picture here

    You seem to be in awe of the bigness of the picture you've painted for yourself. Remember that whenever you invoke the "Russia is so big" argument, you're talking about a country with a population that is only barely equivalent to the combined populations of France and Germany, and an economy that was middling at best - before it started falling over the cliff.

    Regarding the infinitely inexhaustable stockpiles of everything, it looks like you're still basing your analysis on the same paper inventories that we now know were largely works of fiction. More to the point, though, is the fact that the Russians have demonstrated that they cannot reliably and repeatedly get men, weapons and ammunition to work together in the same place and at the same time.

    As Darth Putin puts it: "Russia is now the second strongest army in Ukraine ..."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,782 ✭✭✭macraignil


    You have provided zero evidence that russia has 5 times more of anything and from what I have seen the most important thing they do not have an advantage in with regard to the war in Ukraine is the will to fight there. They are the invaders in a free country so I would think the will to fight is at least 5 times more on the Ukrainian side as opposed to the conscripts and prisoners on fight for release schemes that russia is relying on.

    You have provided zero evidence for your assertion that elections in countries that support Ukraine are a bad thing for Ukraine. I provided figures already in a previous post in reply to you that show the percentage of USA GDP that is being used to support the war in Ukraine is a fraction of 1%. It is costing the USA very little to see putin's forces seriously depleted in Ukraine and it is only a handful of very unlikely to be elected to power politicians that are complaining about this investment in dealing with a terrorist state. An investment which is likely to pay much more back to the world economy when putin has less power to destabilise and attack other countries.

    I don't see how you can expect Ukraine to negotiate with terrorists when they still occupy territory in their country with the only exception in my opinion being if they cut off a significant number of russian troops and offer a withdraw or face attack ultimatum. I would hope the upcoming offensive from Ukraine is the last one they need to drive putin's forces from their country but I can't see how you are so confident to label it as their last offensive or where you get the idea that Ukraine's current supporters are going to abandon them so quickly and some third world countries are going to suddenly emerge as the supporters for russia with ammo to swing the conflict in their favour.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Unfortunately, the Orcs have a 5-6 times advantage in airpower, and that's Ukraines assessment.



  • Posts: 1,656 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The Pentagon leaks suggest that Ukraine will be out of BUK missiles in mid-April and S-300 missiles in early May. These form the backbone of Ukraine's air defense.

    The Western Patriots they are getting won't help much, they're not getting enough systems. So Ukraine will be very vulnerable soon (if they leaks are accurate). The number of unprotected critical sites will go from 6 to 40+ once the missiles run out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭Richard Hillman


    Kind of poignant considering the news over weekend that we can't use our missile defense system because we don't have the radar to make it work.

    So we'll just let it gather dust instead of doing the honourable thing and giving it to Ukraine.



  • Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You still dont get it,you will know for sure if the war is still raging same time next year

    And according to intelligence Russia have enough ammunition to fight for another 2 years

    Only thing thats going to change that is Ukraines counteroffensive,if they succsseed or not.

    Worst case scenario




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,149 ✭✭✭Mike3549



    The US has not yet begun supplying weapons to Ukraine under Lend-Lease, - Politico

     Deliveries have not yet begun due to the US unwillingness to impose monetary obligations on Ukraine and bipartisan approval of support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

    “We prioritize security assistance that they won’t have to pay us for,” a senior Biden administration official explained.



  • Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Really,i guess google and common sense isnt your strongest ally

    Ill leave at that

    Se will see next year if the war is still raging

    Only thing thats going to change that is Ukraines succsess in the offensive

    Remember Russia have enough to fight at this rate for another 2 years




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,782 ✭✭✭macraignil


    So now your are saying common sense isn't my strong ally while you also in an earlier post accused me of not being able to see the big picture and in another that I was whining about your numbers you used to support your russia big argument which were easily demonstrated by a quick google search to be wrong. I believe you are the one who is not very well aligned with common sense and good luck with your putin fan boy attitude as I don't see the point any more of replying to someone who repeatedly just ignores the valid points I have made to demonstrate your faith in attrition being on putin's side is nonsense.

    I'm not sure if you have noticed but the attacks by putin's forces have been ground down to minuscule levels of progress and Ukraine has liberated significant amounts of their country so saying putin's forces have enough to fight at the current rate for another 2 years doesn't point to them getting anything positive from their invasion.

    Post edited by macraignil on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,782 ✭✭✭macraignil


    Saw a report on BBC news about those leaked documents and mention was made of alterations having been made to what was released so I have my doubts on how much we can rely on the figures in them being accurate. I don't think putin attacking civilian targets will help him in the longer term as it will boost international resolve to see his side removed from Ukraine and a growing support for Ukraine being supplied with long range attack capabilities and more modern weapons including western fighter jets.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,149 ✭✭✭Mike3549


    And yet, it says nothing about 5 times more stuff.

    From 3 days to take Kiev, to a 4 year war. Lets meet in the middle and agree it will end at the end of the year



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 229 ✭✭Repo101


    It's not going to end by the middle of this decade and probably will last long into the future. Ukraine won't accept the status quo nor can Ukraine accept a settlement agreement with Russia as Russia has broken several signed agreements on the territorial integrity of Ukraine. It's difficult to see an end when Russia has managed to score so many own goals including the doubling of NATO on it's borders. An irrational autocrat is in desperation mode, who knows what is next.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,063 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    We don't know ... A series of humiliating battlefield defeats for Russia , could get Putin the chop very quick , and it depends who and what faction replaces him .. not having cash to buy new support could be a big deal ..

    A few humiliating failed assaults for Ukraine are more likely to bring a stalemate , and eventually the west pushing for compromise ..

    If Ukraine put off a massive assault and keep goading the Russians into more stupid assaults then who knows - a few more volhedars may break the back of the Russian army ..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    We hear a lot about Bakhmut and around that area. But very little about the rest of Ukriane. What's happening behind the front line in other areas? Are missiles/drones still causing havoc or has life settled somewhat across the country away from the front line?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,489 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,568 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    There is fighting at all points along the line of contact, and the Russians are occasionally using missiles/drones to attack Ukraine. The absence of information doesn't suggest that things are peaceful, so much as they are not newsworthy. Every day hundreds of soldiers die, and while a lot of them are in Bakhmut, they are also in other parts of the front.

    Russia had several unsuccessful attacks, and Ukraine had a few unsuccessful counter attacks further south near Avdiivka and Vuheldar.

    Kherson city regularly gets hit with pot shots from Russian artillery. Recently, both Ukraine and Russia reported on a missile strike on Zaporzhizhia, although the Russians claim it was a fuel depot and the Ukrainians that it was a residential house.

    Even in areas which are not frontline, the war most likely dominates daily life. How could it not, with so many people who have fled or are internally displaced, with people joining the armed forces all the time, or people contributing to the war effort by offering mechanical services or building drones, ammunition etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,634 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    I remember reports that Russia would run out of tanks, artillery, and men at various points last year.

    We've had news reports for close to a year detailing how underresourced Russian soldiers were and how they were close to breaking.

    We were told that the breakthrough at Kharkiv was the beginning of the end and that similar breakthroughs were only a matter of weeks away.


    Russia is still fighting and still has plenty of men and materiel to throw into this conflict.



  • Posts: 1,656 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The documents leaked around 1 month ago and went seemingly unnoticed for several weeks - sitting on a minecraft server or something. Once they started circulating more widely, yes - some Russian trolls crudely edited some slides about casualty numbers. However since the originals were already circulating and with older timestamps it was easy to dismiss these crude fakes.

    The documents overall are considered genuine, embarrassing to the US and a number of pro-West media outlets have written articles about them. Reports that Ukraine is almost out of Soviet air-defense missiles are coming from these pro-Western sources. It should not come as any surprise - these (BUK and S300) are Soviet systems - Ukraine had a certain quantity of missiles and once they're gone, they're gone. Some ex-Soviet countries might have the odd missile to give them but nothing significant.



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  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,568 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Which reports exactly? The Russians have run out of tanks - there is simply no other explanation for the reemergence of Cold War era T62 tanks with some minor upgrades and additions.

    They also ran out of men. Again, this is undenyable. Why would they mobilise 300k or more people if they didnt have a manpower shortage.

    Their stocks of artillery are finite. They have shown an ability to source far more artillery than expected - whether thrlugh larger old stocks, increased production over the last few years, getting supplies from North Korea, Iran or other vountries etc. There are reports that Russia is firing less ammo now than at times last year, though to be fair that could be for operational reasons rather than lack of resources. However, Prigozin and others have complained about the shortages of ammo at the front, so there is some evidence of supply related problems. Since Russia isnt as open about procurement as the US is, we can only speculate. But no country has unlimited artillery ammunition, barrells, gunners etc.

    Again who exactly said that about Kharkiv? You might recall that shortly after that they also pushed the Russians back in a "tactical retreat" in Kherson. I dont recall anyone suggesting that the war was nearly over, but again the victory at Kharkiv signalled a turning of the tide and a significant bloody nose for Russia, from which they have not recovered.

    Russia is still fighting and still dangerous, but for how long?



This discussion has been closed.
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