Russia - threadbanned users in OP

briany · 10-04-2023 12:24PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461189#Comment_120461189

The U.S. who lets Ukraine go swing would be the same U.S. who becomes an unreliable ally in NATO ala Trump's wittering, so eastern European countries would have no choice but to step up, whatever that may take.

NATO countries have more capacity to ramp up production of ammunition and other associated war materials than Russia does right now. They're not the ones going cap in hand to Iran, China and North Korea, as Russia are.

The stuff which the U.S. gives to Ukraine is but a pittance in the grand scheme of their military industry. The U.S. could handle military aid to both Ukraine and Taiwan if the political (read:lobbyist) will is there, which it would be.

Dohnjoe · 10-04-2023 12:39PM

The Dem's will support Ukraine for as long it takes. The GOP's priority is to be contrarian to the Dem's, so if Trump or DeSantis were to win in 2024 I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to change the policy out of sheer spite.

That said, DeSantis recently had to walk back remarks that the Russian invasion was a "territorial dispute", so there's still a chunk of the Republicans who aren't fully batshiat yet and still support Ukraine.

A majority of Americans still support funding and arming Ukraine

https://today.yougov.com/topics/international/articles-reports/2023/03/17/most-americans-favor-some-aid-ukraine-poll

10-04-2023 12:43PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461211#Comment_120461211

That is the reality,Ukraine can keep fighting and countries can continue supporting,but it will only be a small scale comparison to the US support.

It will only end up like a another Vietnam or Afghanistan for Russia

We have seen the support Ukraine have gotten allready since 2015,it didnt change much to the borders,it was only when the world united and supported Ukraine we seen results coming,after the invasion,and alot of this with US influence

And even Germany starting to see the lack of military support in their own country,and low stocks on everything and lack of manpower and maintenance on their own equipment.

US have started to focus on China,Iran and BRICS now as their biggest threats,and it will probably show in this year and next years budget.

Only thing that can change this is a domestic war in Russia,Putin being removed,or the economy collapse.

10-04-2023 12:50PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461272#Comment_120461272

You’re making a crucial error in your analysis. Ukraine was afraid to poke the mighty Russian bear. Turns out the Russian bear is one of those pathetic circus bears riding a tricycle having had their fangs removed.

Ukraine is no longer afraid of mad Putin, and will continue to push against him regardless. But, I see no meaningful drop off in Western support.

10-04-2023 12:55PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461223#Comment_120461223

Eastern Europe is still a ticking timebomb,with some countries allready westernized and some still hanging back in the soviet union era.

Hungary,Bulgaria,Serbia,Moldova,Georgia,Belarus etc have still alot of Russian influence,some are EU/NATO members,some are not.

NATO countries have alot of capacity to ramp up the production,if NATO goes to war,and they wont do it today without an order being put in and its being paid for,and who is going to pay for it?

US can handle a war on two fronts if their allies are with them,alone they cant.

And US have Russia,Iran,Syria and China to worry about right now,and a growing BRICS that will also effect their economic interests in the future.

If Ukraines offensive doesnt succeed,and i am sure and hope it will,there will be negotiating at the end of this year

macraignil · 10-04-2023 12:56PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461189#Comment_120461189

"This will be Ukraines last chance,thats the reality,unfortunately"

Don't understand myself how you are drawing this conclusion. Ukraine needs to stop putin from destroying their country as they have tried to do since the invasion of last year and clearly stated is their aim so I see no situation where they stop fighting without putin and his influence being removed from their country. Any current backers of Ukraine who step away now will be committing political suicide as there will be a significant number of voters who see that doing so simply permits putin to carry on with his anti western empire building which is of no benefit to anyone.

10-04-2023 12:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461288#Comment_120461288

That might be true,but as we have seen,Russia dont lack manpower and equipment to continue a war of attrition,Ukraine will if they lose support from the west,and US is a big part of this

BoxcarWilliam99 · 10-04-2023 01:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461261#Comment_120461261

The majority of Americans don't support giving cash to Ukraine.

If government ignore the will of the people it's no different to Putin, Kim , Xi etc

10-04-2023 01:05PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461305#Comment_120461305

Problem with politics is that its great as long as it doesnt cost money and effect the people that vote for you.

As we have seen in Afghanistan,Iraq,Syria and Vietnam

Ukraines offensive will be the last chance,thats the reality

And Russia have allready lost its influence world wide with their invasion and will take years to recover from it,Economically,Militarily and Politically.

Thats the excuse they will use to cut the support

macraignil · 10-04-2023 01:11PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461326#Comment_120461326

I think you need to check what the definition is for the term majority. Hint it's not 38% of an opinion poll.

Furze99 · 10-04-2023 01:14PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461329#Comment_120461329

That might be the case in some conflicts but things have really gone too far in this case. There comes a point of no return. The challenge is how to manage this using conventional warfare and limiting spread to neighbouring states. This conflict is not going away and could blow up further.

macraignil · 10-04-2023 01:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461329#Comment_120461329

Costs money is one thing but an insignificant amount of money compared to GDP to help destroy a long standing enemy is another.

briany · 10-04-2023 01:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461300#Comment_120461300

The Romanian part of Moldova (i.e. almost all of it) is highly pro-Western. Lukashenko had to whip out the AK and put on a pathetic show of strength to hold on to power a couple of years ago and Bulgaria have been supplying aid to Ukraine as well. Almost every country in Eastern Europe is not going to choose Russia if push comes to shove. Hungary might push NATO and the EU for concessions, but they know where their bread is buttered.

Most NATO countries have not been in an officially declared war in a long time, yet their arms industries went on. Suffice it to say that they can ramp up arms production if the geo-political interest is there to do so. If funds are short to pay for this, the requisitioned billions upon billions of Russian assets can go a long way towards paying for this.

I think the U.S. allies will stay with them on this one, especially in Europe where it is significantly more of an existential matter.

The best way to slap BRICS down is to show them that aggressive military expansion isn't an option.

All wars end in negotiations. Some are long and protracted. Some are 'sign this declaration of surrender'.

Igotadose · 10-04-2023 01:16PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461326#Comment_120461326

Yes, but polls don't determine the will of the people - elections do. And, as you pointed out, there's a 1% 'edge' in a where financial aid isn't favored.

Polls typically have 3% error for what that's worth. Fortunately polls are just that - opinions. And, the poll @Dohnjoe linked shows a majority of Americans favoring financial aid.

Basically, other than troops, a majority of Americans favor aid to Ukraine in the forms polled. Financial support's actually not that close.

BoxcarWilliam99 · 10-04-2023 01:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461356#Comment_120461356

You were all for the polls when you were using it for your point.

It's not in your favour so ignore the polls.

Makes it impossible to have open and honest discussion..

I disagree

cnocbui · 10-04-2023 01:22PM

https://tsn.ua/en/ato/the-announced-counteroffensive-of-the-armed-forces-of-ukraine-has-already-begun-a-colonel-of-the-ukrainian-army-pointed-out-the-first-signs-2304508.html

And...they're off. Maybe. He might be right and they are doing some preparatory groundwork while waiting for things to dry out a bit.

10 Apr 2023, 11:47 AM

The head of wagner group - a private paramilitary company that maintains relations with the Putin government - Yevgeny Prigozhin, said on Sunday that Ukraine has gathered more than 200,000 soldiers for an imminent counteroffensive against Russian forces.

"They gathered about 200,000 people. Even almost 400,000, according to other calculations,'' the owner of the private military company said in a discussion with members of the Ciber Group Frente Z. ''The enemy is serious and has prepared for many years for what is happening now,'' Yevgeny Prigozhin said.

As for the counteroffensive, Prigozhin said that it does not start because the authorities in Kiev are waiting for the land to dry up and the Western weapons will reach them.

''Wagner cannot win the war on his own. We must unite our efforts,'' Prigozhin said.

10-04-2023 01:30PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461349#Comment_120461349

Highly doubt it will go further,as even China have said they dont support Russia

The point of no return will be the result of Ukraines offensive,if it succseed or not

10-04-2023 01:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461351#Comment_120461351

You talking pocketmoney in comparison to what the US have provided,war is expensive,it costs alot of money keeping an army the size of Ukraine operational.

Ukraine probably have 7-800 000 men at arms at the moment,Irelands budget is 1,2 billion for 8000,and Ireland doesnt even have an airforce.

Dohnjoe · 10-04-2023 01:42PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461326#Comment_120461326

At the moment, according to most polls, they do (in the one I linked it's 51% for with 30% against, March 2023)

As the conflict drags on I expect support to naturally decrease as interest wanes (public are fickle), I'm actually impressed with how strong US/EU support for Ukraine has been so far. I was expecting much more division and petty politics.

10-04-2023 01:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461352#Comment_120461352

Well we all want that,but i am saying there is a political side to this as well,and thats not always how we want it to end.

Just seeing things from a realistic viewpoint

And NATO have dried up all their ammo nearly to support Ukraine,and why Germany had to say stop

The good thing about this war,is that Europe had a major wake up call,with defense budgets lacking for years,we see the results of it now.

NATO stocks have to be refilled,and that can take a long time,espesially with a war going on in Ukraine.

At the end of the day,countries that supports Ukraine,will come to a stage where their own security comes before Ukraine.

BoxcarWilliam99 · 10-04-2023 01:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461418#Comment_120461418

My poll says different to your poll but yours is also from a reputable source just like mine is.

I would agree that support will drop as time goes on. Especially if the US economy starts to significantly slow and jobs are lost. People will start to question sending money overseas.

Interestingly some experts and economists say a US recession with a hard landing is on the way. Others say the opposite. No recession and no hard landing.

It's a bit like the polls - it depends on who you ask

briany · 10-04-2023 02:01PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461432#Comment_120461432

Your whole reasoning seems to be based on this idea that western support can/will wither but doesn't question whether Russia can stay as long as that would take. Every concern about ammo stockpiles, about political pressure/public willingness, about money to fund the thing are equally concerns of Russia's, if not more so because they are directly involved in it. They couldn't last ten years of low level war in Afghanistan. Can they last two of a high level where the body bags are coming back in their thousands and thousands? That certainly remains to be seen. If the vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive fails, Russia have little to no ability to significantly push forward, so negotiations would not happen directly afterward. And if Russia has the ability to magic millions/billions more rounds of ammunition up in quick time, then so do NATO countries.

Dohnjoe · 10-04-2023 02:06PM

Rouble not doing great at all. Cracks showing, even with their totalitarian capital controls.

10-04-2023 02:10PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461468#Comment_120461468

That remains to see,so far it have worked out well for Russias war of attrition,but for how long can it be sustainable is another story

Like i said earlier,the only things that can stop Russia is any domestic trouble,economic collapse or the removal of Putin.

And Russia probably have millions of rounds in stock from soviet union,for how long this will last nobody knows,and the quality of it nobody knows either,but it didnt stop them so far.

Regardless ,time is ticking for both sides and many wants to see Ukraines offensive sucseed,but what if it doesnt.

Russia have had months to prepare their defences now,so it wont be a walk in the park like last time,just saying.

Field east · 10-04-2023 02:20PM

I would be amazed if the broad west, Baltic countries, NATO members do not stay the course with Ukr until Moscovy has been brought to its senses - no matter how long it takes because if that is not the case Moscovy will continue on its merry way interfering in other countries elections/economies, cutting cables when it feels like it, cyber attacks - all with a view to weaken the opposition at every opportunity. . This is a global war that the outcome is going to effect all countries in different ways - in good or bad ways- depending on who wins.

Podge_irl · 10-04-2023 02:22PM

The EU is far more important in terms of financial aid to Ukraine than the US is anyway.

The US is important for weapons and those are showing no signs of slowing down.

BoxcarWilliam99 · 10-04-2023 02:34PM

According to Europa.eu polling as published on their site :

"This Flash Eurobarometer survey shows large consensus among EU citizens in all EU Member States in favour of the EU’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine"

This is a blatant lie

Politico.eu digs deeper into the poll:

"The study shows major discrepancies between member countries, however. The EU’s support for Ukraine is more popular in Nordic countries, the Netherlands, Ireland and Portugal, where it is approved by more than 90 percent of the population. On the other end of the spectrum, less than half of respondents in Greece, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Cyprus said they approved of the EU’s actions towards Ukraine"

If it were Russian it would be labelled as propaganda. The EU is dishonest as much as Putin etc

macraignil · 10-04-2023 02:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120461487#Comment_120461487

How can you say things have worked out well with the moskovytes war of attrition. The moskovytes have lost tens of thousands of troops and thousands of a varity of types of military equipment. This moskovyte invasion of Ukraine can not be charaterised as anything but an ongoing disaster for moskovyte forces.

The only thing that can stop the moskovytes I would say is not just a collapse from within as you say but also a physical demolition of their military in Ukraine as is ongoing.

I don't know the source of your count on the moskovyte rounds in stock but sources I have seen have pointed out the use of moskovyte artillery has been reduced recently and as well as the destruction of their artillery systems this is very likely to be due to issues with their stocks with large stockpiles destroyed by Ukrainian missile strikes over the last few months.

Time is not standing still but as I said already this is an existential conflict for Ukraine and they are not going to just stop and let the moskovytes destroy their country.

I think a lot of this trench building by the moskovytes will be revealed to be a pointless pastime to keep the troops sent to Ukriane distracted from drinking vodka for a while and not prove much of an obstacle for a well organised Ukrainian offensive but even if it yields results that are not as dramatic as some might hope the AFU will not simply give up after the first attempt to free their country from moskovyte oppression.