A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

……..,,

Yeah no.

He is a regular crypto investor yes, his posts in the crypto forum are there for all to see.

The relevance is because it gives context to his labelling of others as hysterical or doom-mongers.

ring fencing retail banks from investment banks did happen with British banks.

Would it prevent a run on a bank like we are seeing probably not if rising rates are the real issue as the ring fenced retail banks also hold their liquidity buffer in central banks and bonds. And will have unrealised losses on the bond book and will also have bonds that are held to maturity (HTM) where no unrecognised loss is accounted for.

Would they be forced to sell the bonds in the HTM book and have a big loss like SVB. Highly unlikely because their deposit base is more stable and doesn’t Include wholesale deposits which are flighty. But if there was a run on the bank they would need to but we know the loss would not be as large as SVB because they will have hedged the risk.

Are the ring fenced banks safer? Most definitely as they are protected from the investment bank making a loss and are restricted from holding derivatives except for hedging purposes. If the non ring fenced bank went under it wouldn’t bring down the ring fenced bank.

if this keeps rumbling on with banks being shorted it is only a matter of time before attention turns to funds which in a lot of cases act like banks just without the same level of regulation. Would one or to funds going under cause an issue? Probably not but the chances of finding a systemic risk is a lot higher than in the banking sector as they only rely on their own risk models.

Why is this important? Because the banks have exposure to funds so if a lot of funds went under at the same time banks would run into solvency issues as most of their capital would disappear quickly with the losses and you would have GFC2. In this instance the only banks that wouldn’t be directly caught up in it are the ring fenced retail banks. This is where I believe the biggest risk exists because as liquidity is pulled from the market with QT it will mean less money to invest in funds and could potentially expose a risk that the funds never considered in their models.

SVB, First Republic, PACWest, Signature Bank all collapse, contagion continues. Anyone who think that money just go from small banks to the big banks and nothing much happens is a fool.

There is a talk about $620 billion unrealized potential loss from bonds and treasuries that banks bought up during times of low-interest rates.

Moody's cuts outlook on US banking system to negative, citing "rapidly deteriorating operating environment"

Hysterical !

The COO is Irish, she came from BOI last year

I wonder what Christine does today lads ? Difficult one, probably announce some new emergency loan fund or something for her pals.

It is all just a big joke to these f***ers

So they opt for crypto as an alternative but get burned by fraud there…..so have no faith in anything.

Personally I deffo wouldn't be opting for crypto