Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Co living is a con to maximise land values, nothing else, very very limited demand and what little there would be priced out

what is it the point you’re trying to make and how is a S&P chart with no timeline relevant. If I selected different dates or a longer/shorter period I could find a chart to back up whatever point I wanted to make.

Are you trying to suggest that people try and time the market to buy houses in the “smart money” phase?

Best of luck with that because Unfortunately the majority of people will time this wrong just like they do on the stock market and this has been proven time and time again. How many people invested their deposit for a property in bitcoin and ”growth stocks” that have been burned by trying to be “smart money”

there are two things that move markets fear and greed and at the moment the fear is not that house prices will drop because of a load of supply hitting the market or that people will sell there house because they are paying so much extra on their mortgage because people have to live somewhere where it’s in a rented property or owned…. The fear that exists at present is that it’s going to cost so much extra paying crazy rent for a place that I could be kicked out of at anytime.

The greed will stop people selling for less than they think their property is worth. anyone renting that is in a position to buy will still buy because it’s cheaper than renting and they have security of a roof over their head.

FTB’s that have been living at home saving to buy will do what they have always done and put off buying because the can’t find their ideal home for a price that they want to pay and are not forced to pay crazy rents and know they won’t be made homeless in the morning. They will put off buying because of the fear of getting the timing wrong and 99% of the time will pay more in the long run.

All that happens in the current climate is the market stagnates with less houses coming to the market for sale and people putting of buying if they are in a position where they are lucky enough to be paying way below market rents.

at the same time we have a big slowdown in the number of commencements of new builds because of the uncertainty of costs which means for the next 2/3 years we will have a lower number of new builds hitting the market making the situation worse.

so unless our net migration turns negative and more people leave Ireland than come to Ireland the situation is not going to change anytime soon.

Headline: "Is a frozen market worse than a house price crash" https://www.ft.com/content/07e005bb-d115-4a26-842f-74c1f9133a2d

Interesting piece which echoes similar sentiments in here

An interesting idea to ponder is whether the average person is better of now in 2023 than they were in 2009. Taking myself as an example, in 2009, I was working on an internship in Athlone. I was earning about 350 euros a week, and I was able to rent an ensuite room in a house 5 minutes from work for 250 a month. Shopping and utilities barely came to 200 a month, if I remember correctly. Juxtapose that with the experience of a person on minimum wage today.

Of course, the crash was disastrous for many people, but the current economic situation seems rather ruinous too. Chasing the infinite GDP growth doesn't seem to be a viable long-term plan.

It's a screen grab of a YouTube video, the time line is 2013 to last week, visible if you click the graphic and enlarge. I'm suggesting that those that manage the economy know that it's performance is linked to external factors and should act to prevent bubbles that are linked to external factors.

That same graph could be Irish rents. The state is reaping huge from corporate taxes and should use that cash to address supply issues to take some of the heat out of the market. Instead they have been suppressing supply and stoking demand at great cost. This exacerbates the bubble.

There are quiet a few swans around that are being ignored.

I will admit it's like 01/03 when we had similar conditions and it was addressed in Ireland by an all out push to increase demand, relaxed lending, further grants etc just like now. We all know how that ended

I suspect the ending might come quicker this time, because of national debt levels from the Last bust, covid etc

It looks like the Fed is going north of 5%, why would the ECB be different if they are going to follow through on getting inflation back to 2%. A peak of 4% seems fanciful

There is a general feel that people are not spending money.

Was out in a pub/restaurant Saturday night and you could have counted the people in on two hands. Places that would be jammed with people on a Saturday night.

Noticing a trend in few clothes shops too, known brands, where stock just not being replaced. Sizes gone on essential stuff like pj's and not being replaced. Stock on the shelves left for months at odd big sizes. Are they afraid to overstock?

These are observations carried over a period of time, which I am inclined to say it is not reflecting a hot economy.

Welcome to the Irish property market, decades of dysfunction

700k for 80sqm in Dundrum…

Market is crazy in Dublin at least.

D6 prices per SQ/M there, for much less desirable Dundrum!

According to the PPR they paid €477,500 in July 2020 for that one.

They are closing as they are not getting the business they need to cover the new prices point and footfall is down. Regardless of how it came about. Try those restaurants again now on say Mon, Tues, Wed, Thurs night and see how ramped up they are? I bet you if you fancy it you will get a table for your starter a different one for your main and a different one for your desert. The fact is if things were as great as you think there would be no need for the reduced VAT rates or the government business grants for the service industry in general as they are really suffering at the minute. These supports are going to be tapered off over the next 6/12 months and we will see how things are then