A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

brickster69 · 21-02-2023 09:30PM

Some good news for 2023.

https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1628053808705052673

brickster69 · 22-02-2023 12:59PM

German inflation up to 8.7% in January from 8.1%

https://www.thelocal.de/20230222/german-energy-and-food-prices-rose-again-in-january?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&tpcc=twitter

timmyntc · 22-02-2023 01:00PM

Google cutting 4% of Irish workforce (not incl contractors)

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/240-jobs-cut-at-google-ireland-with-sales-and-engineering-staff-impacted/

https://www.reuters.com/business/google-parent-lay-off-12000-workers-memo-2023-01-20/

Part of their 12000 global layoffs

Cant find a clear figure on how many they hired in Ireland over the last 2 years - anyone know?

brickster69 · 22-02-2023 02:27PM

Iraq to start trade in Yuan also. It's understandable really, who wants to use currencies that can be seized and used as a weapon against you. Big boomerang that one was.

https://www.reuters.com/article/iraq-china-trade/update-1-iraq-to-allow-trade-with-china-in-yuan-state-media-idUKL1N3520LP

Danzy · 22-02-2023 02:33PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120275075#Comment_120275075

This war will mark the end of Western global dominance, it won't end because of it but it will be the Straw 🐫 back..

Marked as a handy book end for historians of the future.

The world will be a much more violent place for it.

BlueSkyDreams · 22-02-2023 02:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120274653#Comment_120274653

Dont know how many they hired, but there was 4224 on the books in 2021 I believe. So somewhere between 4500 & 5000 would be a reasonable estimate of current numbers I guess.

Cuts are lower than the global average again, which is good news for Ireland and seems to follow the trend for most tech companies.

Does anyone know if contractors are being let go also?

awec · 22-02-2023 03:11PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120275109#Comment_120275109

The impact on contractors is very hard to quantify cause it's a lot more fluid. Contractors are probably going to be let go, but this happens all the time.

amacca · 22-02-2023 06:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120271440#Comment_120271440

Out of curiosity, who is selling carbon credits...are they traded at a national level or can a company plant say a renewable forest somewhere and have it certified etc then if it offsets more than they need they can sell the surplus etc?

Relax brah · 22-02-2023 06:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120275291#Comment_120275291

Contractors in Google and AWS were cut off months ago already. Not much is outsourced now (although they pivoted and double down invest into the channel.)

brickster69 · 22-02-2023 06:34PM

Meta to layoff thousands of extra new jobs

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/02/22/meta-layoffs/

mcsean2163 · 22-02-2023 07:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120275097#Comment_120275097

If the USA stays in the USA it could be the beginning of peace.

screamer · 22-02-2023 07:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120276178#Comment_120276178

Meta aka Facebook though is different to other techs. It is on the way out, soon to go the way of bebo. Hence, they’ve metamorphosed (pun intended). They’re heavily invested in AI and AR and I can see them laying off more and more as they turn away from their origins. Still wouldn’t worry though tech is still just going through an adjustment and nothing like the shitshow we saw in 2000….. no recession still and there won’t be. Slow down a bit yes, everyone tightening their belts a bit yes, but no meltdown, I’ve always believed that, and I continue to.

Jonnyc135 · 22-02-2023 07:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120276074#Comment_120276074

The European Union has its own Emmisions Trading System ETS. Every member state is apart of it and any company that operates in EU that uses over a certain MW of electricity is also cumplusory for them to join it.

Basically all the huge multinationals big buisness are apart of it and can avail of credits and offsets to fulfill there green agenda and get a high ESG score. Alot of these credits are stolen out of sectors such as forestry and agriculture where land sequesters carbon.

This is where there is huge upset among farmers and foresters as they can not use there own carbon sequestered on their own privately owned land for offsetting unlike the big multinational companies. In fact if Irelands land was a net sink as opposed to a source Ireland as a state could infact sell excess credits from a farmers land if he was a sink to the like of Germany or indeed Google. This new LULUCF regulation was changed in Nov 2022 to allow this.

Nobody ever wants to talk about this in the media but its grotesquely corrupt and farmers and foresters are not being treated fairly, yet again one rule for the eleites and skrew everyone else.

Dohnjoe · 22-02-2023 07:45PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120276419#Comment_120276419

According to a poster here, the melt-down is happening in June this year.

Hope you are building your bunker and stocking up on gold.

monkeybutter · 22-02-2023 07:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120276354#Comment_120276354

the place was so peaceful before the states came along alright

monkeybutter · 22-02-2023 07:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120275075#Comment_120275075

have they stopped taking dollars? no

people can still seize your assets even if its in Yuan

and the Chinese would never interfere would they

amacca · 22-02-2023 08:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120276440#Comment_120276440

Could farmers & Forresters as a group challenge that....sorry I'll rephrase, would they be capable as a group of changing this state of affairs do you think?

Jonnyc135 · 22-02-2023 11:50PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120276633#Comment_120276633

In my opinion no, the EU have a carbon farming proposal going through Europe at the minute that basically will but into motion that farm land and the CO2 stored in it can not be claimed. Its grotesquely corrupt it really really is.

Lobbying power for big buisness and the huge push for ESG will meam they will be happy to feed agriculture and the big bad cow to the wolves in order to keep their gravy train and green image going.

farmingquestion · 23-02-2023 01:04PM

China getting involved in Russia could seriously hamper things.

The US appears to think China is mulling over whether to supply Russia with weapons.

The only barrier to Russia winning the war in Ukraine is supply of weapons. They outnumber Ukraine unfortunately. If China supplies them with weapons it'll be a big blow to the west. China might also view it as a real test case in how their weapons stand up v western weapons in preparation of a future Taiwan move.

Xi is heading to Moscow.

If China does officially get into bed with Russia, then the global economy is facing massive challenges.

farmingquestion · 23-02-2023 01:11PM

The layoffs so far won't cause much damage.

The numbers are not big and the redundancy packages are big. Labour market still tight, it might even be inflationary putting more money into the economy with these layoffs.

Wanderer78 · 23-02-2023 01:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120278734#Comment_120278734

...again, our inflationary pressures are primarily supply side lead, not demand side, i.e. not money supply....

rob316 · 23-02-2023 04:18PM

The US are aggressively raising rates still but can't bring inflation under control. How high do rates need to go to flush out the endless amount of cash that was printed.

Dohnjoe · 23-02-2023 04:31PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120279655#Comment_120279655

No idea, could go up over 5%. We can fight inflation, but we don't control it.

brickster69 · 23-02-2023 04:38PM

Inflation getting sticky. Hopefully nothing kicks off on the energy front or off it goes again.

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1628730837578440705

brickster69 · 23-02-2023 05:06PM

A new all time high for the US in 2022.

fly_agaric · 23-02-2023 05:51PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120279727#Comment_120279727

Now don't insult those of us still bothering to read (what's become) your personal thread with all that "hopefully nothing kicks off on the energy front!" oh wouldn't that be terrible...yea right pull the other one😆🤡

Wanderer78 · 23-02-2023 06:22PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120279655#Comment_120279655

...once again!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120278842#Comment_120278842

.....raising rates wont solve this problem, cause its not a money supply problem! central banks do not have the tools to deal with supply side lead inflation, central banks do not produce our goods and services, and do not control global energy markets!

brickster69 · 23-02-2023 06:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120280115#Comment_120280115

Why are they raising interest rates then if it won't solve the problem and what do you suggest they do instead ?

fliball123 · 23-02-2023 06:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120280141#Comment_120280141

Raising rates will solve inflation no matter what wanderer says. He is right that a lot of inflation is due to the supply side but if interest rates keep increasing the demand that is there will no longer be a viable financial way of actually buying a lot of what is currently in demand and the inflation/prices will have to fall. Already we have seen 2 months of Month on Month deflation in Ireland so it is working for us and IMO we will see interest rates heading towards 5% by the end of the year if Germany continue to have higher than expected inflation like they did in January.

BoxcarWilliam99 · 23-02-2023 07:02PM

Apart from tracker mortgages and new mortgages what does interest rates have to do with the price of milk in the shop or a new pair of socks?

Prices dont come back down . They stay elevated and are just the new price. Businesses raise their prices to maintain their margins but staff don't get a pay rise.

People struggle on.

A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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