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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yes we do, but that wasn't the point I was making. The vast majority of those appalled by what they see on their TVs most evenings won't act any further. Plus EU and NATO governments while supporting and supplying Ukraine with weapons also want the conflict contained within it's current constraints. This makes the level of support being offered very much conditional.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    They don't need to 'act', in terms of actually doing anything. They just need to give their governments (who are the actors that matter, remember) political cover to keep doing what they are doing. And they are doing just that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,716 ✭✭✭storker


    If I remember correctly one lad was dragged off by a snatch squad while saying positive things about the regime to a reporter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,785 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Not many believe that it's easy for the Russian people to overthrow Putin. It's not, and yes, many will die in doing so. But the Russian people, by choosing not to rise up and stay safe, are saying that they prefer the Ukrainians to die instead of them. In a war of the Russians making, not the Ukrainians. Morally, that position cannot be excused or defended.

    The time to stop Putin was 15 years ago when it would have been much easier. But the Russian people chose not to do so then, instead entering a Faustian pact with Putin, trading democratic freedoms for economic benefits.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,756 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    ...

    And unfortunately also Russia's abundant resources means that Putin and his oligarchs and the state can plunder that for wealth and power and don't need to really depend on its citizens in the same way as the US or Germany. They can also use this money for 'bread and circuses' and foreign adventures.

    Ultimately the Russian people are losers too, even before the Ukraine war...

    In what is a classic illustration of the “resource course”, abundant natural assets have inhibited the Kremlin from trying to create a modern diverse economy. The proceeds from selling fossil fuels go directly to the Kremlin’s coffers, liberating Putin from any reliance on domestic or external support. As a result, it is the regime rather than the average individual that is well-resourced, and when it comes to the quality-of-life Russia lags far behind. The typical Russian man, for example, lives to just 67 years of age, behind Libya, North Korea, Rwanda, Cambodia, and Bangladesh (in Ireland, the figure is 81).

    https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/opinion-putin-state-of-the-nation-speech-6001372-Feb2023/

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,197 ✭✭✭Addmagnet


    I understand the point of view that someone may fear for the safety of loved ones back in Russia. I have children and I want them to healthy and happy at all times.

    But there is the possibility that by silence and inaction today, I could cause them unending pain and grief in the future.

    This is the unenviable choice that Russians have to make. Personally, I think the majority of them have made the wrong choice.

    Now, if their choices only affected them, I think they're perfectly at liberty to carry on. But when their choices affect others, others have the right to take steps.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,621 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Very easy for posters to pontificate from on high about the guilt that ordinary Russian citizens bear for the actions of their authoritarian regime, when said posters are at 0 risk and have nothing to lose themselves from it.

    If your friends or family were living under such a regime you'd be the first to tell them to stay shtum



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    It'll be one year to the day in a few short hours.

    Maybe we should use this unfortunate anniversary to try and summarise what Putin's illegal invasion of Ukraine has 'achieved':

    • Near total unity of the Western powers behind Ukraine
    • Russia reviled while Zelensky is the most admired man in the world
    • The EU has turned into a superpower. 70 years of German military doctrine turned on its head.
    • Finland and Sweden are in the process of joining NATO
    • Russia frozen out of the world economy
    • Russia's main export markets for its oil and gas completely shut off
    • Russia's only declared allies are North Korea, Syria, Iran and Eritrea (judged by UN votes)
    • Well north of 100,000 Russian soldiers killed
    • The Russian army outfought and defeated by a far smaller foe
    • The flagship of the Black Sea fleet sunk by a country that doesn't even have a navy
    • Russia exposed as a fascist state (Bucha, Irpin, Mariupol and a hundred other towns bear witness)
    • Increased repression and thought control at home
    • No prospect of conventional victory

    Not exactly the most well executed strategy of all time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,603 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    Calling on Russians to do what citizens of many countries, including our own, have done down through the years is not pontificating it's called rebelling. Staying shutm as you call it is at best cowardice and at worst acquiescing .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    But yet we had people on blaming the Ukrainians for the Russian invasion and the slaughter of their population,if only the Ukrainans gave up on land to Putin,if only they got rid of their neo Nazi leader,

    But wait he's Jewish....

    Ehhhh ehhhh its NATOs fault,it's everyone elses but not the Russians.

    BS



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    Mick Wallace is still banging the 'NATO warmonger' drum.

    I wonder exactly how much he gets paid for pretending to be a Socialist anyway.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,356 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    A Russian motivational speech. (Joke). It's not from a Russian. Russian peaceful. Russian superior beings. Russian apathetical. Russian non caring. Russian selfish. Russian high nazi rulers to take back Berlin. Russia Putin.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    You clearly have some kind of imagined victim complex on behalf of the 'ordinary Russians'.

    You may wish to examine who is actually being murdered, raped and tortured by Russians at this point in time. They're the real victims.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,017 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Dan have you ever visited or lived in Russia? Well I did, for several years in fact, and I can tell you that not all Russians are murderous raping ardent followers of Putin. But to be born in Russia is to be born in a prison, a gigantic open air prison, but a prison nevertheless. You carry documents with you all the time, a kind of internal passport, (plus the "normal" international passport ) do not leave home without it. You are liable to be stopped by anyone from variety of different police, some in uniform, some not, at any time, day or night, on the street or at home, in the bar, on the metro etc. Break any one of Putin's laws, ( constitutional Law went out the window, unless it suits Putin) and you go to the real prison, or Ukraine, and life will become immeasurably worse for you. As a kid and by the time you become a teenager, you will have become very familiar with the Police and how life works in Russia. An incident, a tiny tiny incident in a public place will draw wagon loads of Police dressed in full riot gear on top of of the instigators, and we have seen many examples of this, especially this time last year in the beginning of the invasion. They did not last very long though, did they? Putin clamps down massively on protests, because its the one thing that he really fears. At this stage although there are faint signs of revolt and anti-war-Putin sentiment starting to show, it will take an organized block ( Military, Oligarch's, Silovicki) or from one of the republics to break the ice. Then you could see a massive show of anti Putin protests, enough to bring him down. Asking why ordinary Russians why they don't do like other Country's have done ( and are doing presently, Iran being a case in point) and revolt, are forgetting that there are country's like China, N Korea and Iran etc which have held their people in a grip of Iron for many years and still do. Its not so easy to get rid of a dictator.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 803 ✭✭✭technocrat


    The Chinese have already proved their not afraid to protest and force policy change from atop.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63855508.amp



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,017 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Could it be because that while protesting outside the Russian embassies, the people inside are busy taking pics of the protesters and sending them back to Moscow FSB ( or others) who are identifying them and preparing nice fat files about them and their relatives. Putin's criminal state apparatus octopus has many long reaching tentacles.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    In my view, the 'ordinary Russian' is somewhat of an irrelevant factor in this war - they have clearly demonstrated that they are willing to line up behind whatever fresh lunacy their government instigates, up to and including sending their men off to die by the thousand for a lie. They're not going to end the war, they're not going to topple Putin.

    Yes, they are repressed and yes they fear their state (with good reason) but they are not going to do anything decisive. So who knows what they think in the privacy of their inner minds, they are irrelevant in terms of stopping the war.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,651 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Its a bit difficult to organise mass protests when a single person holding a blank piece of paper is bundled into an unmarked truck to be taken god knows where. Multiple people, one after the other, were arrested for laying flowers at a memorial.

    Its like asking why Chileans didn't "just" overthrow the clearly unpopular Pinochet.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    JM, I read somewhere one needs permission to visit certain zones that are on the international border. Is this true? Ivangorod in Leningrad Oblast across the river from Narva in Estonia springs to mind.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    Or to go even further, why 'ordinary Germans' didn't rise up against Hitler.

    Like I say, ordinary Russians are an irrelevance when it comes to factors that could end this war. It's very hard to see any scenario where there is some kind of Russian Arab Spring.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,017 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Do you think that they will be able to change Xi Jinping any time soon?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    They were protesting against covid restrictions, not a change of power.

    They were not afraid to protest. Same for Iran. If Russians, Chinese and Iranians all face similar punishment (Iranians far far more), but only the Chinese and Iranians choose to start mass protests, what does that make Russians? Easy to surmise the vast majority just don't care beyond their borders.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,017 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Given Putins military mobilisation plans, I'd say Yes, Russians will need permission to leave. I think I remember hearing / reading that the Kremlin was putting recruiters and FSB people on their external borders. Too many escaped last time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 803 ✭✭✭technocrat


    That’s not the point here.

    The protests worked as in they effected change at the top of government by forcing a policy change on Covid.

    I don’t think mass protests in Russia would necessarily get rid of Putin but they could change the outcome of the war for the better.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,332 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Not trying to manipulate anything...and my sympathy level for Russians at home and abroad is very low (honest!). I don't agree with that whole "orcs"/dehumaisation thing as applied to all Russians, but I think Russia + Putin-era Russians as a whole bear some collective responsibility + shame for this war analagous to the Nazi-era Germans.

    edit: It is a fair point re Iranians in Europe protesting.

    I know close family at home living under the regime is something that would give me, anon coward, pause, not when it would come to attending a large protest with 100s of k others but being a key organiser or central figure, sending letters to papers etc.

    Unfortunately the anti-Putin forces in Russia and outside in emigrant communities were alot weaker before this war I think than those against the mullahs in Iran. There's little base to build off there now when badly needed.

    I would not be certain, but would also think Russia's ability to identity and gather info on any organisers of protests or movements etc. in Europe and possibly go for them directly rather than just their family is probably greater than that of Iran.

    The UK is a country with alot of Iranian "ex pats" and seems like it is quite penetrated, and that regime is now able to pose a credible threat directly to these organisers themselves. e.g. below concerning dissident Iranian journalists operating in UK

    The toll of attempted assassinations and abductions was made public hours after a London-based Iranian broadcaster announced it had moved operations to the US after mounting safety concerns against its journalists from Tehran.

    Acting on advice from the Metropolitan police, Iran International TV “reluctantly” closed its London studios after state-backed threats meant it was no longer possible to protect the channel’s staff and the surrounding public.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 728 ✭✭✭20Wheel


    Well the (initial) plan was/is to change those minds, by fcking up their economy, so badly that they eventually wake up and associate that azhole leader with gradual personal impoverishment and suffering, and increased chaos.

    Its a difficult play. To fck up the average Russians life in such a way that theyll finally pick up their own personal pitchfork from their shed, rather than a state issued kalashnikov from a barracks.

    The idea is to have Vlad fall out of a window one night, while we also get to avoid having a massive war.

    Thats why economic sanctions are the key weapon, even though the nerdlingers and armchair lieutenants like to deride them as the old 'strongly worded letter' trope.

    Post edited by 20Wheel on

    Putin is a dictator. Putin should face justice at the Hague. All good Russians should work to depose Putin. Russias war in Ukraine is illegal and morally wrong.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,402 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Watching the 1420 channel on YouTube, I get the impression that at least 60% of the population support Putin and the war. Most opposition comes from young people, particularly in more westernised cities like Moscow and Saint Petersburg. But as you say, this supposed 'opposition' is absolutely useless in the context of a country where there are virtually no anti-government street protests, no underground anti-regime movement, no anything. They think it's their lot to go along with everything the dictator says or does.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    Unfortunately it looks like the thing most likely to end the war is 'military defeat' rather than 'popular uprising'.

    Anyone hoping for the latter, based on history to date, could charitably be described as optimistic. Maybe that will change over time and we may have a new Russian Revolution, although I wouldn't bet on it personally.

    Even if you did have an uprising, there is no obvious alternative. The most likely replacement would be someone from the same power vertical that Putin has constructed.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,621 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Spain to send only 6 Leopard 2A4s, of more than 100 they have. They have over 200 newer Leopard 2A6s, of which they are sending none.

    Finland are to send just 3 out of their 200 Leopards 2s

    Either their stocks of tanks are in much worse condition than previously thought, or they dont really want Ukraine to win

    Post edited by timmyntc on


This discussion has been closed.
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