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Winter 2022-23 - General Discussion

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,243 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    A fair bit of Saharan dust on the cars this evening



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,113 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    Was hoping to get my snow fix in NY, no such luck, glorious weather here today and even better tomorrow with a forecasted high of 18c. Plenty of heat in the sun here already. I suppose if you can’t have snow then spring like weather is the next best thing 🙂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,243 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    15.9 degrees recorded at Phoenix Park today




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Highest Valentine's Day max temp in Ireland since 1998 when Merrion Square achieved 17.2C.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,771 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Hope we don't get a repeat of that dreadfull summer....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,243 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Stormy across Scotland Friday




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    It seem almost certain we won't have a named storm this winter. It has been a while since there has been a downed tree here due to a storm. I recall someone saying there should have been a named storm a month ago or so due to how windy it was in their location.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,208 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Had great weather the last few days in London, frosty foggy starts and getting up around 12-13C by day, possibly 14C today and feeling very pleasant in the sunshine.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,242 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Another warm day for February. I feel this SSW will bring us a cool spell later in the month and into March to offset this but back to frosts then.

    Bar the cold spell mid January all of 2023 has been milder than average virtually.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,113 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    Another very pleasant day in NYC. Got up to 19 degrees today and felt it too!



    Mod Edit : Turned the pic for you !

    Post edited by Meteorite58 on


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The cold spell in December was the main cold spell of the winter, despite the fact that the second half of December was very mild, the cold spell was cold enough to make December a cooler than average month overall. The cold spell in January was nowhere as cold as the December cold spell it only lasted a few days and it did nothing to change January into an average or cooler than average month. January still came out a very mild month overall for Ireland. February is now turning into a remarkably warm month, if we were to get a cold spell in final days of February it will do nothing to change the fact that February will be the warmest month of the winter overall. Some south-western areas of the country currently have a mean temperature sitting around 9C for the first 15 days of February which really is warm for the time of year, as we haven't really seen any cool or frosty nights since the cold snap in second week of January.

    Winter 2022/2023 could also finish completely snowless for a large part of the country if we don't see any flakes between now and end of the month. (most of Leinster, Munster, some midland areas and mid western areas). Another very mild Irish winter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,597 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    Was reading that Jan and Feb have been breaking all kinds of records for warmth in New York this year, they've barely had a winter at all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Indeed, Central Park was completely snowless in terms of accumulating snow until February 1st which was record late for first snowfall. The previous record was 29th January 1973. Can see for nearby Newark how persistent it has been above average through this winter in the graph below.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,242 ✭✭✭pauldry


    There's always a zone of the world that gets extreme heat in the Summer. I've a hunch it could be the US this year. Though nearly every continent is getting them now but just think it could be severe there this year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,242 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Is there any website that shows the mean temperature for every month by year or even the top 10 warmest februarys and their temperature for example.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,281 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    No


    Maybe raw data, but nothing compiled. Boards is one of the best places for this data, maybe Syran would have this prepared?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,208 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Nice pass over the South yesterday by the ISS.





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,113 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    Hit 20C here in NY today, warm rain started a while ago and it felt like Ireland in July.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Yeah there is no site to just straight up show you the data in a ranking order, you have to use the raw data and analyse yourself.

    Here's a selection of synoptic stations and their 10 mildest Februaries since 1957. February 1998 was pretty much universally the mildest on record in this country with the likes of 2019, 2012 and 1961 behind.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,242 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Even looked for British equivalent and struggled. Thought I used to find that pretty easy before Met Office made their site more "modern".

    Thanks Sryan. I guess I'll just be pestering you in the future warm months since google doesn't know.

    Actually from googling I remembered 1998. I thought we'd be all melted by 2020 coz that years February seemed too mild. 2019 was another in my mind. Could February 2023 break them both or will cold towards end of month quell record attempt.

    Valentia is the one to watch. Already at 9c for February. So certainly in with a chance of beating the 9.2c



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Fairly blustery tonight. It has been a while since we have had any wind to speak of.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,242 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ya and 13c at midnight. Temperatures remaining mostly in double figures till Tuesday then dropping off for the final week of February so records may be missed out on.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,694 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    A pleasant day in cork city. Could go outside for a walk in just a hoodie, rather then needing a jacket as well. Due to the lack of wind I presume because when that was there near the end could feel the cold



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,512 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    My warmest Febuary in the 11 years recording here so far, current mean running at 8.3C wich is .2 above the next highest (2019), only 4mm rain so far too which is well below average. I'm liking it.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    What does the stratosphere thingy mean exactly? Was trying to read the thread but couldn’t understand it really.

    Is there a potentially cold couple of months ahead?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,526 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    That tells you how bad our summer weather is more than anything else...and 20C with rain in ireland in July would be considered a good day...New York is as far south as Spain is so its no surpise they can get temperatures like that this time of year...can get anything from beach weather to blizzard this time of year

    Post edited by Hooter23 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 585 ✭✭✭Apothic_Red


    Dear weather nerds, sorry . . . that term is offensive, let's start agin.

    Dear weather enthusiasts, love your work normally but it would appear you have missed out on the upcoming colossal weather event that's being widely reported.

    Now I know your fancy weather models might not agree but that's a real journalist who wrote that piece & not just a pretend meterologist.

    So please put the above data into the computer & tell me how many feet of snow will be on my driveway 7 days from now.

    Pleasure to be of service.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I have a feeling winter is not done with New York yet. Although you will probably have gone home by the time it hits there



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Assuming you've read about the very basis of it with regards to downward propagation and all that, if not here's a nice Met Office explainer to get you on track.

    It is no guarantee, nothing is in weather. It just enhances the risk of blocked patterns which in turn increases the risk of cold weather depending on where the blocking set ups.

    If we are to get any blocked patterns directly from the effects of the SSW, it will be from the first to second week of March at earliest. The weather forum will be keeping its eyes firmly upon what the modelling show in the next few weeks and see if there's any effects. If we see anything earlier, it's likely the result of other drivers rather than the SSW.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,208 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58



    Mod Note :Now that patronizing post smells very much of trolling and goading, in fact very poorly disguised at that. Save it for somewhere else and keep following the real journalists that you speak so highly of, I'm sure you will find the information that you want to read there.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 585 ✭✭✭Apothic_Red


    It was pure sarcasm at the journalist & the state of journalism, I often post on this forum & appreciate the quality of those who can interpret those long term charts as in FI.

    Now everyone chill, it's Friday . . . thought it was funny myself



  • Registered Users Posts: 89 ✭✭ttnov77


    when feeding birds dont forget to clean feeders



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    The wind is just easing after a wild wuthering night out here offshore. It has been a chilly while.

    Oh a sign of spring here! While others speak of daffodils in bud etc?

    My first blossom is a somewhat tipsey-looking dandelion... All lopsided... But a small splash of sunshine all the same...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    And my early ambles are resumed. In the first glimmers of daylight with the haar softening the blessedly familiar contours of mountains and ocean. Chill and utterly windless tranquility.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    And a change back to windgusts! This place expresses the wide range of weather so swiftly and with such LIFE and the clouds draping over the mountains change and move rapidly.

    And a chill now..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,654 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sorry to change the subject, was just trying to message Danno and I discovered that he was banned from boards at some point in January. Is there any discussion of this somewhere? I don't read all the threads every day, but surprised I hadn't seen a mention of this anywhere.



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,283 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    He was not banned on the weather forum, he was site banned from another forum, so we know nothing!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,597 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    ..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,196 ✭✭✭OldRio


    Drizzle and showers. Awful stuff altogether.

    Leitrim



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    A gentle day. Mild and quiet. very pleasant to stand at the gate and gaze at the ocean..

    West Mayo offshore



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,654 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium



    Here's the top twenty warmest Februaries in the CET records and a link to the source. More generally, google "CET Hadley downloads" for the home page and for precip records it's EWP Hadley downloads which includes a regional section for NI.

    Top 20 warmest months of February CET 1659 to 2022

    (note ties are broken by second decimals not shown in the table)

    1. 1779 __ 7.9
    2. 1869 __ 7.5
    3. 1990 __ 7.3
    4. 1998 __ 7.2
    5. 1794 __ 7.2
    6. 1903 __ 7.1
    7. 1945 __ 7.1
    8. 2002 __ 7.0
    9. 2022 __ 6.9
    10. 1961 __ 6.9
    11. 1872 __ 6.9
    12. 1867 __ 6.9
    13. 2019 __ 6.9
    14. 1914 __ 6.8
    15. 1739 __ 6.8
    16. 1926 __ 6.8
    17. 1750 __ 6.7
    18. 1702 __ 6.7
    19. 1997 __ 6.7
    20. 1790 __ 6.6

    2023 to 19th 6.7 (est 6.9 to 20th, est finish 6.3)

    2011 (6.4) was 21st, 1995 (6.4) 24th and 2020 (6.4) 25th


    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,242 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yer a legend MTC



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,654 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Not sure why they don't format the temps like the precip and have regional values on the same site as CET, I imagine you can find those other regional temperature stats but they won't go back anywhere near as far as CET which was developed back in the 1950s by Manley and Hadley.

    I've created similar temperature and precip ranking tables for Toronto (1840-present) and NYC (1869-present) and those can be found in the climate change forum over on Net-weather. I hope maybe sryanbruen or Oneiric3 will one day work up some similar long-term tables for Ireland, if the Met-E folks don't do it first. Something like the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature) that we use in the contests (five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon), although it could be just one location with a long period of records. I work quite frequently with both IMT and CET and find that they are fairly similar most months, although in winter the IMT is usually 0.5 to 1.0 higher than CET, and in summer about 0.5 to 1.0 lower.

    The CET for those not familiar stands for Central England Temperatures and it takes an average of three locations that are near Luton (Rothamsted), Oxford to Bristol (Pershore) and Lancs (Stonyhurst). This is basically like taking Birmingham but I suppose it would vary slightly at times. The EWP on the other hand takes regional averages for all of England and Wales. They also track regions of Scotland, and Northern Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,512 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    I'm currently tying my warmest March nevermind Febuary @ 8.9C mean. That will probably drop by next week but mad all the same

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Kind weather! Mild and gentle.... But gray...

    West Mayo offshore



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,996 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Apologies if its been mentioned already but its been an incredibly dry January and February in Dublin, not sure how its been in other parts of the country. Was just looking at the Met Eireann website and only 41mm of rain in the whole of January and just 13mm of rain in the first 20 days of February (only 9mm at Phoenix Park) !! I have to say I am normally a big cold weather winter fan but at this point, bring on Spring !



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Gray rain ... all is dove gray today. Sky and ocean in monochrome.

    West Mayo offshore



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,996 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Its been another very pleasant day in Dublin. I have been out playing sport most evenings the past couple of weeks and hardly a drop of rain.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,197 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Read something yesterday that’s there’s the first recorded technical drought in France during winter. Less than 1mm recorded for 30 days is the drought determination. I think the record for all seasons is 31 days which happened recently in March April period. Glanced over it quickly so I could be mistaken.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    You are correct.

    Translation: The rain has not fallen in France since January 21st, a series of 31 consecutive days (February 20 included), unheard of during a meteorological winter. All months combined, this consecutive series equals that of the year 2020 from March 17 to April 16.




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