Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

1194195197199200353

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,973 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Depends on which country/region, but here in Europe, since the 2008 FC it's been on average around 2% per year (just after the FC is spiked to around 4%, in 2014 to 2016 is was famously close to 0%)

    Around 2% is optimum. Central bankers are not "magicians" that pull magic levers. They have a basket of tools they use to mitigate bad effects or encourage good effects, e.g. encouraging growth if sluggish, or helping induce a slow-down if overheating.

    Considering we've just been through a global pandemic, now a European war and energy crisis - comparatively speaking things are relatively good (for most of Europe).

    Some people think all this stuff is all somehow controlled by an homogeneous group, it isn't. Managing economies to benefit 8 billion people and somehow keep growth or relative stability through all this turbulence is fiendishly complex.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    2% is not possible in my view in the next 3 years. We are in a total different world now compared to having negative interest rates and 2% inflation. Besides that, debt is magnitudes bigger than 10 years ago.

    Pointless having a target set in stone if you cannot achieve it without breaking everything.


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,065 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    It needs to be stressed again and again that inflation is not coming down.


    Matt Cooper on during the week talking about inflation falling, the rapid rate of increase is a slightly less rapid rate of increase.


    It's a positive but it's as you say a multi year project to 2%.


    That's a goodnight few years of pain to come.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    It seems even the people in charge don't know what is going to happen Danzy, no one has a clue just fingers crossed type of thing at the moment.

    Then you get thing like frozen reserves in accounts which people think is $260 billion and when they go looking for it they can only find 36 billion. Even i know what i have in the bank and where it is. Unreal $224 billion missing and these people don't even know where it is. You would think someone somewhere has a record of where it is. Can't just of ****ing vanished. God help us !

    russ2.png


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,534 ✭✭✭Deub


    Even i know what i have in the bank and where it is. Unreal $224 billion missing and these people don't even know where it is.

    Did you read the screenshot you posted? They want to force banks to report the frozen assets. It was never in the EU bank account like your money.

    I find it amusing that you keep implying, EU, US, FED, ECB, etc are stupid but your understanding of the articles/graph you post is almost always incorrect.



  • Advertisement
  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Inflation has literally been negative for two months, so you're incorrect with this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,973 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    You are quoting TASS, that's a Russian news outlet.

    The cash and assets are frozen by custodians. For example, Clearstream Banking Luxembourg, where the Central bk of Russia will have an account, will have it's assets (and long cash balances) frozen subject to EU and US sanctions. Likewise other European and global custodians.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,973 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    It's Russian propaganda nonsense and you should know better

    Here's the original article it distorted notice the slight difference?




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    That article says the same thing. No one knows how much or where the funds are and banks should report what is frozen. But up to now they are just going on what the central bank of Russia has said for the figure. You would of thought someone would of checked by now wouldn't you, maybe they were lying for all we know.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,973 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    No it doesn't.

    It's known where the assets are, it just hasn't been formally reported to the EU legal service. Keyword: formally. There's been no need to, custodians report to central banks. The EU are requesting this formal balances reporting only now because they are considering steps to be able to sell the assets.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    So if they take those assets and give them away does that mean all the company shares, factories, frozen bank accounts, refineries, energy licenses, gas facilities and everything else can be seized in return.

    russia.png


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,973 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Oh we can be sure that Russia will retaliate. They've already stolen leased planes and taken over businesses that have left Russia. Even if these Russian central bank assets aren't sold off to pay for Ukraine I suspect that Russia will move to grab a lot of this stuff anyway down the line. It's essentially run by a crime syndicate.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    How are they supposed to give leased planes back if sanctions have blocked flights. What do they do return a jumbo jet by UPS or something.If businesses left that is up to them, they were not forced out.

    This has a lot of potential consequences now for Western financial institutions and currencies now, far greater than sanctions. We will see if nations decide to create laws, take individuals and entities assets and property without being convicted of a crime and then give them away. We will see how much money leaves financial institutions and overseas purchases of assets and investment dries up.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,600 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Inflation in Ireland has fallen for the last 2 months



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,390 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Technically the rate has fallen, but there's still inflation. If you have 10% inflation over a year, the following year you would need 9.1% deflation to get prices back to normal.

    It's very rare to see deflation. So basically a loaf of bread that maybe increased from €1.00 to €1.10 through 10% inflation. If you got it down to 2% inflation (central banks target) that loaf will go up to €1.12.

    It won't go back to €1.00 unless you had deflation. Obviously there will be some items that will drop and some will increase, but inflation gets locked in to the prices.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,973 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Russia could have returned the planes through any number of ways through third parties, they didn't, likewise they simply stole assets of companies leaving the country.

    This has a lot of potential consequences now for Western financial institutions and currencies now, far greater than sanctions. We will see if nations decide to create laws, take individuals and entities assets and property without being convicted of a crime and then give them away. We will see how much money leaves financial institutions and overseas purchases of assets and investment dries up.

    Perhaps, or perhaps this is just more of the same doomsday hysteria and Kremlin koolaid we saw last year that never materialised.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Relax brah




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Airlines losing out to China. Add in the jet fuel situation and they could end up with a huge slice of that pie.


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Unsurprisingly US home purchases for investment now lower than 2008. Amazing how much cash went into them post covid.


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,600 ✭✭✭fliball123


    The last 2 months MoM there has been deflation its been in the minus figures and I think we will see that continue , people cant afford the prices and with further interest rate rises its going to going to squeeze the wallets a lot more



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,390 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    It's been negative inflation (the rate reducing, e.g. from 8% down to 7%) it still means goods/services have increased by 7%.

    Deflation would be a minus %, meaning goods/services have gotten cheaper.

    The whole idea with the interest rate rises is to squeeze the wallets. But with fuel/rent and mortgages being the biggest movers, these are the items people tend to cut last 🤷‍♂️



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I'm pretty sure it has literally been month on month deflation, unless I'm somehow reading the figures wrong. The consumer price index has decreased also.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,600 ✭✭✭fliball123


    I am talking MoM the % has been a minus figure also the figure for cpi for inflation has been on a downward trajectory since October of last year we are at the start of a correction for prices as prices have gotten out of control and people have stopped a lot of spend and wages have not risen to meet inflation and it will continue





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Looks like the US may be getting ready to launch some new boomerangs soon enough. Could well be a few countries starting to offload some bonds and pull cash out out of there as well. ****ing losing the plot those lads for some reason.


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,390 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Screenshot_20230219-233252.png

    It's still a positive figure. Anything over 0 is inflation, anything under is deflation.

    You can see how rare deflation is, it rarely happens (anything under 0)

    Screenshot_20230219-233330.png




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,837 ✭✭✭quokula


    That graph is annualised inflation, not month on month inflation. Annualised inflation is indeed positive, but month on month has been negative for the last two months.

    For January 2023, inflation in Ireland was 7.8%. However, month on month inflation was -0.8%, or 0.8% deflation. This is actual deflation, not just the reduction in the rate of annualised inflation.

    This effectively means prices were 7.8% higher than January 2022, but were 0.8% lower than December 2022. We would need quite a few months of deflation to ever see January 2022 prices again, which is unlikely to ever happen, but we are moving in the right direction to get to 2% inflation.

    Prices are higher now than a year or two ago and they may drop back a little, but ultimately they will never go back to what they were and that is not the target, the target is to get inflation back to a manageable rate. And over time wage increases will keep pace with the increased prices.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,262 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    2022 CPI

    Jan = 106.6

    that increases every month until Nov

    Nov = 116.0

    Dec = 115.8

    Jan 2023 = 114.9

    Two months of small price falls, but still substantial annual inflation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Without a doubt more boomerangs will be getting launched soon.


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



Advertisement