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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,428 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Miscanthus is usually grown for bio-mass , and harvested when the leaves are dead , so in winter ,

    It can be grown on poor ground in Ireland, but usually poor ground means wet ground , so increased cost to harvest

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,428 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    This is an update of a previous price comparison ,

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,981 ✭✭✭Diarmuid


    France making the sensible decision to dump the 50% target for nuclear and in fact are accelerating the procedures to build new plants.

    A clearly sensible approach

    https://www.liberation.fr/environnement/nucleaire/le-gouvernement-renonce-a-lobjectif-de-reduction-a-50-de-la-part-du-nucleaire-dans-la-production-delectricite-20230117_YTOTKZDPTFHNHISIORQKFMZ6PM/



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,630 ✭✭✭✭josip


    So will they build 12 new reactors or keep 12 old reactors going longer?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,981 ✭✭✭Diarmuid


    The draft law says it's the accelerate new builds but that does not mean they won't keep existing ones longer .




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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,856 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    With CO2 emissions being the bellwether on which climate change is being judged it`s not difficult to see why when you compere them to their neighbour Germany. For 2021 Germany`s CO2 emission per capita were 8.06 tons, France 4.58 tons. After years of being told by greens that Germany was the model to follow and after tears of Germany jibing France over nuclear, Germany are now back razing villages to strip mine coal, building and leasing LNG terminals, buying coal from the largest open cast strip mine in Latin America in Columbia, El Cerrejon (which daily guzzles 34 million liters of water), and are back in the oil and gas exploration game. Yet Germany is still insisting it will shut its few remaining nuclear plants that produce no CO2 emissions. Even Greta Thunberg cannot make any sense of that.

    Before anybody here starts waffling on about costs using the most expensive nuclear plant they can find as an example, Forbes estimate that for Germany to achieve 100% self sufficiency from renewable resources in the coming years on top of what the have spent already will necessitate an additional spend of €5 Trillion. When you compare that to Poland`s decision to go with a price (that wasn`t even the lowest) of nuclear for €4.7 Billion per GW, the there are a hell of a lot of GW`s in €5 Trillion.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,682 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Today's figures are no guide to future emissions. We've to drop 80% ourselves so today's numbers are nowhere near where we'll be in 2030.


    €4.7Bn per GW from Westinghouse ? The company that went bankrupt and left one customer writing off $9Bn, and the other customer spending good money after bad , now at $30Bn for two rectors that still aren't finished. I wouldn't buy a second-hand car off them.


    All the residents left that ONE German village Lützerath two years ago, they started 16 years ago, so it's not like it happened overnight. And despite ditching their main supplier of imported fuel Germany has accelerated phasing out of coal to 8 years sooner which means it's the last village.



    This is the actual renewable production in Germany over the last month. They will be rolling out a lot more offshore wind too.

    Compare to the graph below where they've been exporting lots of power to the neighbours , which accounts for some of that CO2 as grids aren't yet ready to take 95% renewables.




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,682 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    The most recent grid connected reactor in France started construction in 1991 back when they used to be able to build the things.

    It's a little early to tell how this year's maintenance downtime will have affected the existing French reactors lifespans either way. This is the same EDF that had to close plants in the UK early after getting life extensions. And constantly made overly optimistic forecasts about last year's debacle. So have a history of well not exactly lying but ... They aren't out of the woods as not all plants have been through the cycle. And they pushed the workers to strike.

    Flamanville 3 has been under construction since 2007.

    And looking at Hinkley-C, Olkiluoto 3 and Taishan there's no evidence of things going smoothly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,856 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Some of the stuff you post is fairy land.

    Germany now generates more than a third of its electricity from coal burning plants according to Destatis the German federal statistical office. In 3rd quarter 2022 it`s generated from coal was 13.3% higher than for the same period a year earlier. What German CO2 emissions has to do with their grids not being ready to take 95% renewables I have no idea. Their electricity generation from all renewables is not even half that 95%.


    They may be rolling out more offshore wind, but they are also building and leasing LNG terminals as fast as they can build or get their hands on, and their 100% renewables plan, whatever that is with the present shambles they are in, and one they caused for many other European countries with their championing of Putin`s gas, is not going to be cheap. Forbes estimates it will require an investment of €5 Trillion over the next few years. And that is for wind that has less than half the rolling capacity as nuclear, and with wind turbines that have half the life expectancy of a nuclear plant.


    You do go with the worst example you can find where nuclear is concerned, but hey if you do not like Westinghouse, then check out the price Poland received from South Korea. It was even cheaper. Westinghouse got the contract due to U.S. political pressure, so it doesn`t look as if the U.S.Democrat administration has the same concerns on Westinghouse as you do.


    You do not need to use today`s figures as a guide on emissions. You can look at any day over the last decade and compare France and Germany that will show you that France continually beat Germany up a stick on CO2 emission due to their use of nuclear. And if the bellwether on climate change is CO2 emissions, then nuclear will do that 100% regardless of wind blowing or sun shining at a fraction of the offshore construction costs alone for wind.

    Post edited by charlie14 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,428 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    The idea of shutting a nuclear plant down early is economically AND environmentally bonkers , ( unless it's a safety issue obviously )

    comparing their nuclear to France ,their Lng to Poland and their renewables to Denmark , just makes germany look a bit crap ..

    The only energy they excel at is lignite, and that really is an environmental **** show..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,428 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Actually is it possible to split Germanys green push (energywiende ? ) into sections ?

    A lot of their solar seemed to be on individual houses , heavily subsidized, it seems more a greenwash campaign/way of keeping your voter base happy ..

    I assume they're more production focused now , ( rather than capacity focused)

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,682 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight



    Germany is phasing coal out 8 years early.

    Nuclear is too little, too late to be an option.

    And besides it's nowhere near as reliable as you think. Japan shut down all their reactors. 80% are still shut 12 years later. Italy shut down all their reactors. Germany is shutting down all their reactors. The UK will soon only have one or two working nuclear power plants. France had half it's reactors shut down and had a capacity factor of 52.9% last year. Nuclear is very much all your eggs in one basket.


    South Korea with the fake parts scandal ? Have a read of this expose on how they are institutionally corrupt. And it's still going on 3 officials given suspended prison terms on charges connected to Wolsong-1 Their reactors are cheap because they decided to drop 80% of the safety features. I wouldn't buy a secondhand car from them.

    The history of nuclear delivering on-time, on-budget is abysmal. The actual delivered cost (if delivered) is way more expensive. Doubling or even quadrupling of costs isn't unusual, which is why I'm using CfD costs rather than the promises of an industry that has consistently failed to deliver them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,107 ✭✭✭gjim


    Regarding Poland's decision, you know the background/history of the Westinghouse AP1000 - the design they've signed up for?

    Westinghouse spent the 1990s designing the AP600 but didn't manage to convince anyone to build one. So they evolved the design into the bigger AP1000 - roughly a 1GW design - which was certified in 2005.

    Of the 8 AP1000 that started construction:

    The "success" is that they've actually completed 4 such reactors in China. But at the end of the construction, the Chinese have said they're not going to build any more and have abandoned the design because of cost overruns and delays.

    One of the most infamously disastrous nuclear power projects in the last few decades is reactors 3 and 4 at Vogtle in the US was a AP1000 project. This has been going since 2009, is already 6 years late and $20B over the initial budget of $14B. Reactor 3 was supposed to go into operation in 2016. Latest news (this month) is that it will be delayed again until the middle of 2023.

    The last "flagship" AP1000 project was at the VC Summer plant in South Carolina. This was the largest business failure in the history of the state. $9B dollars spent between 2009 and 2017 before an audit revealed completing the pair of reactors would cost at least $25B and the project was abandoned. The average South Carolinian is now on average paying $30 a month on top of their electricity bills to fund this $9B investment into what is now a a large field of concrete.

    Nuclear is only viable in a fantasist's world - in reality every nuclear reactor project started in western Europe or the US since 1995 has been a disaster one way or another. The biggest proponents (and opponents, to be fair) of nuclear are generally terribly uninformed about the industry and it's history, it's record of project failure, cost-overruns and 10 year, 20 year or even longer schedule overruns.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,733 ✭✭✭SeanW


    As a reminder to all the fantasists pushing nonsense like weather-dependent renewables, hydrogen, biofuels and other lunacy, note that 43 years after Germans started pushing the Energiewende, they cannot consistently keep their CO2 output below 500g/kwh. (559g / kwh as of now). And they're not decreasing their use of coal, they are increasing it.

    https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/DE

    Energiewende was always a scam predicated on access to that sweet, sweet Russian gas, hence the increasing reliance on what were to be multiple NordStream pipelines. The East Slavic world provided a lot of what the world needs to survive (Ukraine providing wheat, Belarus providing fertiliser components, Russia providing oil, gas and lots of other raw materials).

    And as to biofuels ... honestly, I don't even know where to start. We are potentially going into a prolonged food shortage worldwide because of limitations on the amount of high quality agricultural land and the supply of fertiliser components, and some people want to waste what we have left on biofuels 😫 As the Gen Zs would say "I can't even ..."

    According to a commentator Peter Zeihan who has been doing the rounds on YouTube as of late, we are potentially entering into a world in which everything we rely on from an interconnected world is going away, including enormous amounts of stuff from the East Slavic world. If true, we will simply not be able to afford the kind of starry-eyed lunacy that has lead to things like the German Energiewende a.k.a. half a century of lunacy and failure.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AinG0tJz-50





  • I think it's pretty clear which way Germany is going i.e. the same direction as everyone else

    As for Peter Zeihan, I like his stuff, watch a lot of it. The one comment I would make is his conclusions are based on inaction. What I mean is he makes an assessment of a topic but assumes no action by the parties concerned to address his conclusions (which are often very obviously things which can be addressed through policy means).

    He's also prone to the odd wildly absurd claim or two, the death of China being one notable one. I've a lot of respect for his analysis on Russia though, he's been pretty rock solid in that area.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,629 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Guess they will be expanding and opening more coal mines so to indulge this greenwash



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,428 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    It's seems as if the German energy policy was concocted in the Kremlin ,

    Just outsource your energy supply to Russia , shut your nuclear , but more gas .. even their renewables policy was definitely suspect ,lots of big subsidies for small ,roof top solar , in a north European country. The public love the feel good factor and the payout , meanwhile buy more Gas ...

    It'll be interesting to see how polands new nuclear scheme pans out - and costs out . And what's included ,or excluded from the headline figure , intrest rates being the big big one, grid costs ,

    Oh and where the fuel comes from , can't see them getting it from Russia 😁, so north Africa (would the french be helpful if it makes Edf look bad ?) Canada ?

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,428 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Yeah , we're not the same energy market that we were 20 years ago , all those data centres ect are running 24 / 7 ,

    A pair of reactors wouldn't be unreasonable in the scale of things ,

    Of course the spinning reserve for that would be a bitch , and wouldnt link in with wind at all ..

    And where would you put it ? Moneypoint?

    And even with no objections ect. It'd be 15 years minimum to get it built

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦





  • That's optimistic imho. Like it's taking 15 years to get bus lanes put on some roads for comparison



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,359 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell




  • Registered Users Posts: 19,670 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    He's wrong, like all who peddle this tripe. France arguably has too much nuclear capacity, which is why they have been able to export so much for decades. The excess capacity has historically generated enough income from to fund the building of a new reactor, every two years - not that they used the income for that.

    He clearly hasn't familiarised himself with the ESBs plans or their energy requirement calculations, or the EU energy strategy.

    The ESB calculate an additional 66 Twh of renewable energy generation capacity is required to decarbonise energy usage in Ireand, which includes heating, transport, industry and electricity. Given that's renewables, you can safely asssume less than half that if you were to get the energy from nuclear. So let's say 30 Twh. That means that not only isn't a large NPP too large, it isn't large enough.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,670 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    The average time to build the 441 operating nuclear reactors was 7.3 years. Poland is hoping for 5 years from construction start and to have the first reactor operational by 2033.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,428 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    So five years of design and 5 years of construction, if Poland gets it right ..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,670 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    I don't know about Westighouse's reactor, but the NPP the Koreans will build is based on a design they have built mutiple of in Korea and the UAE, so I don't think design should be much of an issue.

    Building NPPs will get you to zero CO2 faster than trying to do it with renewables.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,682 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    On the other hand the UK, US and France , like most countries with nuclear power haven't started and finished a reactor in the last 30 years.

    You can't compare series production of debugged 1970's designs with today's larger, more complex designs which still have teething problems even after multiple builds.

    7.5 years is a long time in renewables. It's wishful thinking in nuclear. Finland's Olkiluoto 3 took more than 7.5 years to build. It was late by 7.5 years. And now it's late by ANOTHER 7.5 years, by contrast Finland increased it's wind power by 75% last year.


    The EPR power plants so far are the Chinese one with a reactor offline for a year for repairs, the Finish one that will take at least a year to go from grid connection to commercial operation because of repairs and the French one that if it goes on online this year will have to be shut down next year for repairs. (spot a pattern yet ?) The UK ones recently got a three year extension to cater for delays (and repairs ??). Those plants were supposed to take 5 years to build too.

    Of the reactor constructions started in the US in the last 30 years 50% were abandoned and the rest are way overdue and way over budget. . All by Westinghouse who went bankrupt. It'll work out at $20Bn and counting per completed reactor. So now you know about Westinghouse but go digging, it get's worse the deeper you dig. The three most recently completed US reactors started construction in the 1970's

    It takes months for a wind turbine to offset it's construction.

    For a nuclear power plant that's been delayed 15 years, it will take 15 years to offset the carbon emissions of the fossil fuel used in it's place, only then can you start talking about the construction and mining inputs. Also you'll also have to take into account the end of life decommissioning and waste repositories. There's already a fully recyclable wind farm in Germany.

    Nuclear power is an all or nothing gamble, where rolling a 1 means you lose everything. On the other hand you can start getting power incrementally when rolling out GW's of wind or solar or other renewables.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,629 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Months for a turbine to offset its construction you say?? Sounds like utter BS going on the damage, number of long haulage materials etc. involved in the construction of the ones on peatland I have referred to here before in North Mayo



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,629 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Fitzgerald thinks monoculture spruce plantations on peatlands are "green", so no suprise he would write such drivel



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,682 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight



    https://www.newscientist.com/lastword/mg24332461-400-what-is-the-carbon-payback-period-for-a-wind-turbine/ "In 2006, turbine manufacturer Vestas studied the carbon payback period for various turbines. This took into account extraction and manufacturing of raw materials, production of the turbines, their transport, erection, operation, maintenance, dismantling and disposal, and the same for their foundation and the transmission grid. The figure was between seven and nine months, depending on the type of turbine. Other analyses have come up with similar figures."

    That was back in 2006. Today's processes and turbines are more efficient.

    They shut down the wind farm that had the incident 20 years ago. Around the same time that construction started on the new Finish nuclear power plant that's still not ready for commercial use.

    Do you want me to go back over some of the nuclear failures in the last 20 years , remembering that a delay of 7-9 months would have been enough to make a wind farm carbon neutral ? We could also do the costs of powering up the grid while waiting for nuclear.


    The pro-nuclear lobby present the most optimistic rose coloured glasses view of what might happen if all the ducks are lined up going downhill with the wind behind you. I'm letting people know what actually happened because the past is the best predictor of the future.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,670 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    The most cutting edge offshore wind project at the moment is Dogger Bank A in the UK, which will be largest in the world when B and C phases are complete.

    It's cost is £3bn, for a capacity of 1.2 Gw. The capacity factor will probably be the same as the other recent builds off Scotland at 47% The strike price is £50 per MW in 2022 money. So that project has a payback of 11 years. Actually, it will be longer than that, probaly by a couple of years because that doesn't factor in interest on borrowings or maintainance and operating costs which amount to 30% of the total cost of energy from an OSWF.

    The O&M costs of a wind farm can make up around 30% of the levelised cost of energy of an offshore wind farm

    If anyone wants to invest their own money, then it might be best not to take a turbine manufacturers figures for ROI.

    Just for fun, I calculated the UAE's Barakah NPP ROI period as being just 9 years, based on the same strike price - lol.



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