If the government called a general election tonight

On a point of information, you do just have one vote.

The version of proportional representation we have is by means of a “single transferable vote” (PR-STV). You may cast that vote with a preference ranking, but it’s only ever counted against one candidate. If or how it’s transferred down your preferences depends on the surplus or elimination of your preferences from 1 down.

As much as I hate FF, I'm not naïve enough to think they don't have any intelligent members. They've been masters of vote management and electioneering for decades. They're simply not stupid enough to join SF in government. It would be suicide for the party and, as we all know about FF, party comes before country.

beware of those that believe everything the papers tell them - quite a lot of those kind voted for Brexit.

The idea of re-voting in the plebs we have had for the past 100 years is the definition of insanity is it not? (Doing the same thing and hoping for a different outcome)

That may well be but if SF + FF is the only possible government it will have to happen. Martin is no longer ruling it out.

It's comparable to the run-up to the 2007 GE, when FF + Lab looked like it would be the only option for a government. Pat Rabbite absolutely lamasted FF in that campaign, saying they should be put out of office for a generation etc., but he never quite ruled out coalescing with them because he knew circumstances could very well dictate it.

Labour certainly - they've completely lost their minds making Bacik party leader and with her track record, no-one could trust her as a coalition partner. Even on their worst day I genuinely can't see FF/FG falling far enough short of a majority that they couldn't get over the line with a few of the usual independents (Healy Raes, Lowry etc) and/or the Greens / Social Democrats.

Then I think you’re a little adrift of the public sentiment (I mean that with the greatest due respect)- my family are dye in the wool FG- from a farm in the south east of the country. Couldn’t be more FG if we tried. Absolutely none of us are voting FG in the next election- things were bad in the party but Varadkar has absolutely destroyed it. It competes with Labour now for empty wokeness. I want low taxes and minimum government interference in my life- FG give me the reverse. The likes of Mcentee, Harris, are really terrible ministers- damaging in fact. Couple them with the likes of R O’gorman and Ryan in the Greens you can see why the country is in such trouble now. Also all horrible unlikeable zero personality thought police zealots.

I genuinely believe FG could dip below 20 seats if they went to the country tomorrow.

Even after a supposedly “generous” budget FG are still floundering in the polls- people feel and see the complete opposite to their propaganda in their pockets reflected in their pay packets- all I see is an eye watering list deductions that I get absolutely nothing back in return for- “abolish the USC” anyone?

FG reward the work shy and people that never contributed a cent to the country.

road_high, I get that people are frustrated with the government but where will those votes transfer to? While some FF voters may be that way inclined, those who've historically voted for FG are never going to transfer to SF.

Those that want "low taxes and minimum government interference in my life" are never voting for Sinn Fein (or most other left wing parties) so will either stay at home (rendering their opinion of the next government or the running of the country worthless) or, more likely imo, transfer to a local independent candidate who, being an independent, can usually be easily bought off in government formation negotiations with some pork barrel local issue...

A lot in that boat. SF aren’t the answer that’s for sure. The public are ripe for more right leaning candidates- the media establishment will resist this at all costs

It may develop into a rat run with FFG politicians who were elected on later counts deciding against running.There is a few good journalists who seem to have realised that a kind of once in a generation shift is happening. The institutionalised press release recyclers still have their heads embedded in the FFG collective anus swallowing anything it emits. There's also the government advertising and zero VAT support that has helped dampen some of the criticism of FFG mismanagement in the wider media.

The people who think that FF/FG is a certainty at the next GE do not seem to have considered that there has been a generational change in the electorate and many of those who are now becoming eligible to vote were children during the Property Bubble. They saw the damage it caused to their families and parents. Unsurprisingly, they are reluctant to vote for the politicians in FFG who are guilty of inflicting stupid economic policies on the Irish people. SF and the SocDems are beneficiaries of their votes.

That generational shift has been behind some of the increase in SF support. Now, the real problem for FFG/Lab is the Nursing Home refunds scandal. That's damaging FFG/Lab support in the older demographics on which FFG/Lab depends. It is a betrayal of FFG/Lab's most consistent voters.

That can work out in two ways. The first is that these voters will be angry and will vote for SF candidates. That may not happen in sufficient numbers because of the natural conservatism of older voters. They had to endure decades of propaganda with the Stickies/Eoghan Harris anti-Irish brainwashing from RTE and from the incessant FG propaganda from IN&M when Dinny O'Brien was the largest shareholder.

The second is that these former FFG/Lab voters may vote Independent rather than SF or not vote. A genepool Independent would be the ideal way for these older voters to express their anger with FFG/Lab while not significantly changing their support. The effect of those angry older voters deciding not to vote would be absolutely devastating for FF, FG. Both parties would be looking at a seat collapse into the low 20s.

At the moment, there is a very real prospect of an SF majority government because of the collapse of the FFG/Lab vote. Opinion polls for the last six months or so have been largely static with few movements outside the Margin of Error. The problem is that these only ask about first preference votes. Lower preferences matter and determine who, other than the poll-toppers get elected. The effect of the angry older voters not voting will be amplified in the later counts and may cause a lot of FFG backbenchers to lose their seats.

It is funny to read the waffle from some FFG supporters about opinion polls and "science" while in reality they haven't a clue about opinion polls. I tend to be a bit cynical about this but I did call the spread on the Big Three Parties in 2016 and point out the inherent instability of the big three model with no two of the Big Three having enough seats to form a government. It was apparent by 2015 that the Big Three model was replacing the 2.5 party model.

It is the floating vote and not the party supporter vote that decides GEs. That floating vote nearly destroyed FF in 2011 and Labour in 2016. A rise in undecided voters in the opinion polls is always an indication of an electoral shock on the way. The other problem is more complex because Irish pollsters don't publish it. That's the non-response rate. These are people who refuse to be surveyed in an opinion poll. If an opinion poll has a sample of 1,000 voters and a pollster is told to feck off by 200 voters it is not a sample of 1,000 but rather one of 1,200. Without that non-response rate, it is difficult to determine the reliability of these opinion polls.

Some of the FFG politicians seem to be realising that their political careers may be about to be suspended for a GE cycle or two and are deciding not to run again. They are the smart ones. An SF majority government is a possible outcome but so too is a new, more conservative party that takes seats from FF, FG and SF. If there is a Motion of No Confidence in the next few weeks and the government falls, the latter is not going to have time to get established. If SF is close to 40% in the next opinion poll then there may be more FFG politicians deciding to retire to spend more time with their families.

Regards...jmcc

No idea tbh as bad as each other really. However I think SF in danger of losing the next election as their main support base is rising up and SF seem to have the same approach as other parties (as I said all the same). A more right of centre option would probably gain traction these days, I won’t be surprised to see one setup.

I don’t think SF want that themselves- there’s no real hunger from their side to govern. If there is I certainly don’t see it. Last election Mary Lou was tripping over her ample frame to land her arse back in opposition. They’ll do their usual droning on about “change”- which is actually the last thing SF want or could handle

the 'peak appeal' part is something that is stated nearly every election. someone on here just to say it all the time

they dont need a centerist appeal - they need to get into power with like minded parties and make a change for the better for the country. that will convince people to support them

In recent terms, (excluding the Blueshirts in the 1930s), Ireland has not really had a genuine Right of centre party. The PDs were really just Provisional Fianna Fail. There is a gap in the political market for a Right of centre party but the clientalism model of Irish politics (politicians getting passports and other things for voters) works against it. It would require SF to be in government and a fracturing of FF and FG. The result would be a kind of centrist FFG and a more Right of centre party. If the illegal immigration problem is not sorted out quickly with genuine refugees being given asylum then that will accelerate the emergence of such a party and could take seats from FF/FG and SF.

Regards...jmcc

Independent #1

Listening to people the main parties all have a huge chunk of disaffected former supporters.

There is an increasing disconnect between politicians, the Irish media and ordinary people.

A lot of the current protests would be in areas that SF would have had as their original support base.

And they are doing nothing, saying nothing.

Then on the other side a lot of the old FG and FF support bases are getting mightly p**sed off with them.

Working class and middle classe voters of theirs suddenly see that their kids can't now afford to go away to college, can't now afford to move out even to rent nevermind buy a place of their own.

Recently having chat with few people and someone asked what is the Irish dream and a 30 odd year old piped up "to own your own home".

And this was from someone educated with reasonable job.

These people are looking at emigration not because the country hasn't employment, but because they can no longer afford to live here.

where have the shinners been in power to give you this fear?

Manifestos give enough fear!!