Russian warship, go f**k yourself!

No idea. But it was decided weeks ago to send tanks for whatever reason.

Not the worst thing anyone could read

Love you too😘

What exactly is wrong with what's in it? Or are we still telling ourselves we need to drive Russia back before it takes over most of Europe...

Think tanks produce reports like this all the time, some are good, some are bad.

To borrow a good internet comment I read recently on this particular report:

"It then recognizes that a negotiated settlement is unlikely because first both sides hope they can achieve greater victories by continuing to fight, and second because both sides do not view a cessation of hostilities currently as something which will lead to a durable peace. Thus both sides are pushed to keep fighting. The report compares the current situation to that of the Western Front in 1917. Neither side can see victory, and the battlefield record was decidedly mixed, promoting optimism that victory was around the corner. Thus the incentive seemed to be to keep fighting rather than negotiate. Of course the comparison breaks down when you look at Russia ca. March 1917...

I really hate this framework to look at conflict, this kind of social science approach to war trips over itself trying to thrust a theoretical framework into something that is rather straightforward. As it points out, Ukraine and Russia are currently unwilling to negotiate for peace. Thus the outcome the authors say the US should prefer, a quick negotiated settlement, is impossible. If so, it has to be taken off the table. An armistice is the next likely, but is undesirable as neither side (IMO rightly) thinks it would actually produce peace but a pause to rearm. As a result any armistice now, especially for Ukraine, is equally impossible. Take that off the table. What remains? Either absolute victory or a wider conflict. The US Policy is thus clear, to give Ukraine the best shot it can at the absolute victory while avoiding the worst case scenario, a general war. By pursuing the absolute victory, Ukraine accomplishes one of two things, either it wins back more territory (a net good) or it comes closer to realizing there is no military solution to the conflict (a net good, from the perspective of ending the war.) However the article fails to see this because its so caught up on the theoretical framework of producing peace. If I could ask the author one question, it would be why WWI didn't end in 1917? The answer to this question explains why their focus on producing a settlement in the near term is incorrect and will lead them to the wrong policy conclusions."

That poster didn't take into account that it's when western aid either is reduced or is no longer there in sufficient quantities that a peace negotiation of some sorts is possible due to the pressure that puts on Ukraine.

Russia can keep some sort of conflict going as long as it wants. Ukraine is totally reliant on western support to keep going.

What does a win for Ukraine actually look like? Stopping the war and achieving a lasting peace or regaining every bit of territory even if they continue to suffer from missile strikes etc for years to come. Russia will have to leave with something after all of this if they're to accept peace. They're not going to be driven out of Ukraine and left begging for a peace deal.

The great counteroffensives in Kharkov and Kherson haven't done anything to show that they can retake land that the russians fight to keep.

The russians pulled out and weren't driven out by fighting.

We were told there'd be thousands of prisoners taken and enormous amounts of equipment but it never materialised.

So what will it take to do that? Will tanks be enough? it doesn't seem like there's a massive amount of escalation possible after that without direct NATO involvement.

Aircraft will face the same limitations that Ukraine's aircraft currently face and so are limited to low altitude flights which greatly limits firing range. So won't be a game changer.

Where does the end of all this come from?

From here back the general belief is thatRu will keep fighting because it is the Ru government’s / Putin’s main /core activity. As it keeps the states philosophy intact, keeps the strong men /oligarchs in place/power and keeps the population subjunctive/under control.

BUT, BUT BUT that was the case from here back. BUT now what about from here on?

-We are now talking about aan increasingly informed population via mobile, WWW, , through informed friends, etc. —

-Will they be as subservient as in the past ???. —

-Will the general population- especially in some of the RU states- go along with RU/ Putin’s plans as in the past without showing any opposition?.

-Will Putin’s replacement/s continue along the same trajectory ?

-will the states , which are very much against the current war, completely change their ‘ relationship ‘ with Ru - support sanctions, stop trading with it, etc. Surely such states now realise what RU REAL AGENDA is . I expect such states will really punish Ru if , from now on, Ru makes any effort to interfere in any nations business/ soverignty, eg try to do a Ukraine on other countries, cut communication cables/pipes, cyber attacks , etc

so we are talking about a TOTALLY DIFFERENT situation going forward. And I would expect all UKR friendly nations , at least, to develop the appropriate measures to counteract anything RU might be thinking of.

and at the same time I would leave it open to Ru that if it ever wants to ‘ behave properly, that the would would be willing to listen , at least. Although that could be a very, very, very ,very long road.

The world would be in a MUCH better place for ALL if RU was inside the tent while ‘behaving properly

Ukraine is unlikely to be neutral again, whatever happens, they'll be armed to the teeth and will never trust Moscow again (Russia has broken pretty much every international treaty it's signed in recent history)

The "confiscated wealth" will most likely be used to rebuild Ukraine in the future. If the conflict is dragging on, perhaps it will be also used to arm Ukraine. I very much doubt Russia will ever see those hundreds of billions again (of course they could just leave Ukraine, it's entirely their decision, the whole conflict was a war of choice for them)