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Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,544 ✭✭✭ulsteru20s


    Do you have ruck stats? Especially some kind of arrival ruck stat where a guy gets there first, rather than just attending?

    I feel like Ryan must be elite at that.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,626 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    But even then, across the season, and discounting for minimum's, they still may not be very meaningful. For example, metres/carry has to be looked at in the context of the number of carries per game. Take:

    • Player X is averaging 1.7m per carry but averaging 5 carries a game
    • Player Y is averaging 1.5m per carry but averaging 20 carries.

    By your metres/carry metric, Player X is ahead. But Player Y is carrying over 22m more per game. That's significant.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    No. I've 'constructed' those stats before for games, by literally watching and pausing, and looking at the various arrivals and who has a genuine influence on the ruck, but it's a very manual task to pull together.

    I would agree though, it's a serious strength of Ryan's game. But, tbf, when watching back the game yesterday (and assessing the penalties awarded etc), it was noticeable how much work Joe McCarthy got through from that perspective too, and how impactful he is as a clearer.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,626 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    Given the last week tho, who knows! But ya, ultimately, I don't expect him to feature. Maybe during the RWC Warm-ups (which is where he got himself ahead of Toner last time) but tbh, his inclusion now would nearly be a shock on a par with Carbery.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,544 ✭✭✭ulsteru20s


    Interesting. I’m assuming teams have all that stuff.

    Maybe i need to watch McCarthy at the breakdown again. Another stat id love is single clears. Who can hit a ruck a little wider on the field, and clear it by themselves under real pressure. It’s pretty important to how ireland, leinster and i guess now munster play.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,626 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    The one area of the game I'd love to see more stats on, tbh. They're notoriously difficult to come by, but you see the odd Twitter thread during 6N time. (Presumably because they must be such a b*all ache to collate).



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,626 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    I remember reading Keith Earls' book last year and he went into some of the stats they use, just to measure his speed.

    I think the stats we have available to us are incredibly rudimentary tbh and are barely a fraction of what teams will have available to them.

    (Like the ruck stats you alluded to above; that's obviously a huge part of the game).



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Everleigh Freezing Oasis


    I've actually seen one of the raw datasets that gets gathered from international games, it tracks every single action that every single player takes during the game. And it didn't include the GPS data that they gather from the little units the player wear. The professional teams have absolutely massive quantities of data at their disposal.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yeah, I get it. But typically, over the course of a full season you don't really see massive discrepancies in carry stats across position groups, allowing for meaningful comparison.

    That's why I do think (and would generally record) actual carries as well as metres per carry, because you want to see who shows up to carry a lot too.

    But it obviously speaks to the effectiveness of those carries. It's factual to say that if you've got three guys with similar carry stats, and one has a higher metres per carry then that guy is the more effective carrier.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    He's had a brilliant two seasons to be fair. He was often Munster's best player last year, in particular when the internationals were away and similarly I'd have no issue seeing him called up.

    I've two theories on all this.

    1. I think the IRFU are trying to keep an informal cap on the number of Internationally qualified players in the squad. With Lowe, Park and Aki I think Kleyn is the one that is seen as the back breaking straw. If any of the above three were unlikely to be available moving forward I think things might change for Kleyn. This is pure speculation on my part, but we've never really seen more than 3 IQ players in the squad / 23 at any one time.
    2. As others have said, Kleyn isn't the quickest and he hasn't got great hands. The relentless, accurate and fast paced style that Ireland play really isn't a match for his skillset. I've no doubt he would perform and get familiar with the system, but he'd a sub optimal choice and there would be no real development. With McCarthy you're talking about much less of the finished article, but he's quick and a ball player and with experience the rest of his game should tidy up. Whether or not that happens in time for the world cup remains to be seen - but I can understand why he's preferred.

    As with many of Farrells calls, it's all about ceiling and skillset. That said this is starting to look like a situation where McCarthy went to the wrong 'school'.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,626 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    I think Kleyn's handling has improved in the last 12 months, fwiw. He hasn't at all looked out of place in Munster's attack this season, for example. Obviously, international level if an ernormous step up, but I don't think he's let us down.

    My take is that when selecting a guy down the depth chart who'd be outside the 23, Farrell in part seems to favour the younger option. It make sense, to be fair.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,258 ✭✭✭✭Buer


    Whilst his hands have improved, that doesn't necessarily equate to having good hands. It just means he doesn't spill the ball which was a problem in his earlier career.

    Ireland play a dynamic game with a lot of moving the ball away from contact, fixing the defender and then trying to make sure there's quick ruck ball etc. In 4 European matches, Kleyn has passed the ball twice. He has made 11m with ball in hand which suggests that he's generally just trucking it back to the gain line and recycling.

    If you compare that with the Irish incumbent locks, Beirne has passed the ball 26 times and Ryan passed 16 times. Both have significantly more ground made with ball in hand (56m and 42m respectively) which suggests they're getting over the gain line and giving front foot ball to the scrum half which is quicker and there's a resetting defence. These are massive elements of the Irish game plan.

    McCarthy and Henderson have similar involvements in the loose (Henderson being the closest to Kleyn in terms of passing but still more prominent).

    Kleyn is having an excellent season but he's not playing the type of game that he needs to if he wants to be involved in green. Whether that's by design or through any limitations is another question but the fact that Beirne is the most prominent lock around in terms of handling and carrying suggests that it's not something that Munster would have any issue with.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Farrell was speaking to the media this afternoon on the squad, selection, and seems to imply the pecking order is Sexton-Byrne-Crowley, in his language where he says:

    "...and then we've got Jack Crowley there who has got a lot of potential going forward, so we need to put a bit of time into him as well"

    Says Carbery has been given some things to go away and work on, and says Ross Byrne has been "getting feedback for the last couple of years".

    He also says Sexton should be good to go Day 1 against Wales.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I am not at all surprised that Byrne has stepped in to number 2 and he had another good game at the weekend under no small amount of pressure against Racing. I've no fear of him going up against Wales or whoever at this point.

    I still wouldn't mind seeing Crowley start against Italy.

    Real turnabout for Carbery. Thought he was so-so at the weekend, took a lot of big hits early on. For the short time he was on the pitch I thought Healy offered more continuity in attack albeit the game was in a different phase at that point.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,615 ✭✭✭Dubinusa


    I feel that pace, tempo and constant pressure is the key that drives Farrell. Certain lads suit this need. My thoughts are that Treadwell was clearly the 4th choice lock based on these needs. It's probably a better fit that McCrthy gets involved, in Farrell's view.

    If this game plan was a possession and territory based plan, I think Kleyn would be picked. It's apparent that we aren't capable of competing with "power" teams at the top level. At least in respect to dominating and control. This Catt inspired offense is faster, more skill oriented and relentless.

    In Schidts era we stifled possession and used Murray and Sexton to pressure defensive lines with the kicking game. Murray was brilliant at putting up contestable balls and defenses struggled with it. Once we couldn't control possession, we shat our jocks.

    Our style now is great to watch. JGP fits the bill, as does Casey. Their tempo alone is a bonus. There's a millisecond only for the defensive line to set. This is why we are a tough out for others.

    After the top 4 locks, the pecking order is muddled. Certainly Kleyn and Molony would be considered. But what about Niall Murray? He's surely on the radar? Thornbury also. We are fortunate that we have fit, highly skilled locks.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,112 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    I think Byrne is the logical next choice especially when you consider that almost the entire backline will be the one he plays with week in week out

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,544 ✭✭✭ulsteru20s


    I think Treadwell is an example of overfitting to a style of play, because honestly he is not that good a player.

    My theory is that Ireland have 7/8 currently ELITE. players and then almost everyone else is more about role fit & cohesion than anything else.

    I think that works especially well at 6 nations and AIs but i wonder if it might not work as well in a world cup.

    Edit: at the same time, does that matter? I like doing well at 6 nations.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,738 ✭✭✭Shehal




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,544 ✭✭✭ulsteru20s


    We’ll see in a few months when everyone gets a ton of time to build their own cohesion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,738 ✭✭✭Shehal


    Just saying you're theory makes no sense whatsoever, explain it for me?



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Who are your 7/8?

    I'd have Porter, Sheehan, Furlong, Beirne, Doris, Van der Flier, Sexton, Ringrose, Keenan as all elite. Robbie Henshaw at his best is in that crop too, and by global comparisons to scrum halves JGP would be too.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,544 ✭✭✭ulsteru20s


    That’s basically it. 9 seems about right. I wouldn’t have JGP but i think he’s a fantastic style fit.

    I think the essential guys on that list are the forwards and sexton though. I think we probably could replace ringrose and keenan if we absolutely had to and still win.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,544 ✭✭✭ulsteru20s


    Other teams don’t have the luxury of so many guys coming from one system, and playing a similar system. However, at the world cup, teams have so much prep time that they catch up in terms of cohesion. It’s more of a level playing field.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,262 ✭✭✭sprucemoose


    i dunno about this though, its an argument you regularly hear on here and from pundits - lets play some bigger lads against the bigger packs like SA and France. Stick Gavin Coombes etc, in because we wont match them physically

    the problem i see with that is that we still wont match them physically in all likelihood (maybe France but SA almost definitely not) and we might move too far away from our normal game to challenge them. im not saying its an idea completely devoid of merit but i would question if it would actually be effective in reality



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,317 ✭✭✭gameoverdude


    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,767 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    I wasn’t saying that we could lose on the basis of a single incident. I’m just saying that just because something has a bad outcome, it doesn’t mean everything about it was bad. Not everything is in our control. That was just an example of that. I wasn’t trying to define it as some match defining moment though.

    As I said, we should be aiming for a GS. But we shouldn’t be too down on not winning one if the circumstances are positive in the main. The main thing right now is a trophy. We need to show ourselves as much as anyone else that we can win one, or more accurately the team need to show themselves. That’s what we need going into the RWC. From there we can judge the merits of a GS or no GS after the fact on what happened rather than setting a minimum target as the maximum possible result.

    EDIT: Maybe in the interests of clarity I should reiterate that I was responding to the idea that no GS means we’ve gone backwards. It doesn’t. Just like a Championship win doesn’t mean we’ve progressed. Good teams get bad results and bad teams get good results. We need to judge Ireland on both results and performance, because we want to be a good team that gets good results.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,544 ✭✭✭ulsteru20s


    I think there are two players, coombes and baloucoune, who are just good enough rugby players that it might have been worth it to take some short term pain and some role tweaks to just make sure they were ready to be in a world cup squad. Of course, that still might happen this year.

    Outside of that… there isn’t anyone i would sacrifice wins right now for.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Baloucoune's injury profile is just so frustrating. Every single time he is back playing with a bit of form, another niggly muscular injury has him out for an indefinite time period. It's next to impossible to plan around a guy with that track record, which is unfortunate, because he has elite speed.

    Andy Conway is the other really frustrating one. He was one of Farrell's first name on the teamsheet guys not that long ago, but it feels like he's been out forever. As recently as October coaches seemed to be hinting he was close to a return, but nothing since, just a steady place on the injury report.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,544 ✭✭✭ulsteru20s


    Yea, true he gets injured at all the wrong times.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,562 ✭✭✭ersatz


    Dropping Carbery is a good call given the other options Farrell has. RB deserves his shot with the season he is having, his game has really come on and he is playing better than Carbery and playing a style of game that is close to what Farrell is doing with Ireland. Carbery has always been solid in green coming on as a sub. He was very reliable in NZ last Summer and has rarely made mistakes, but that's about all you can say for him. He has had a massive opportunity over the last 6 years and has never really pushed Johnny or owned the understudy jersey, it's always been defaulted to him for the absence of alternatives. With RB playing as well as he is and Crowley emerging as a realistic option Carbery suddenly has real competition. I'm sure he knows where he has to improve and it will be interesting to see how he does over the next few months and whether he can impress enough to get back into the mix for the WC.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,367 ✭✭✭✭phog


    There used to be an employee of the IRFU that posted here way back, he often dismissed the stats that we saw/used because they were at odds to what he'd seen from the Irish camp - often times these were final whistle stats too. I'm sure these stats are much improved once the match reviews are done and all stats collated.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,626 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    Ireland play a dynamic game with a lot of moving the ball away from contact, fixing the defender and then trying to make sure there's quick ruck ball etc.

    You could equally say similar about Leinster, yet they saw fit to bring in Jason Jenkins this season. A player who started the season brilliantly, yet has averaged 3 passes a game for Leinster.

    And if hands were so important, Ross Molony would've seen gametime for Ireland last season. (For example, I'm not sure how happy we'd be with a second row of Beirne and Molony going up against, say, England in the 6 Nations?)

    Fwiw, I've absolutely no issue with McCarthy getting selected ahead of Kleyn (he's got enormous potential). And part of the reason I'd like to see Kleyn involved is because I think he received some poor treatment from some quarters when he was called up for the RWC, so I'd be delighted for him to be involved again.

    (Also I'm not sure your stats on Kleyn are completely accurate?)

    Post edited by aloooof on


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It's a fair comparison with Jenkins albeit this is club rugby standard and he trains week in week out with Leinster and not just the week before an international tournament.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Everleigh Freezing Oasis


    You could equally say similar about Leinster, yet they saw fit to bring in Jason Jenkins this season

    Leinster and Ireland have completely different and independent sets of coaches. What Farrell et al want for Ireland has absolutely nothing to do with what Cullen/Lancaster want for Leinster.


    And if hands were so important, Ross Molony would've seen gametime for Ireland last season.

    Oh come off it. Doesn't pick Moloney, we appeal to authority. Doesn't pick Kleyn, that very same authority is wrong. Moloney is a decent provincial level pro, he's not an international.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,626 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    Absolutely nothing? I'm not sure about that.

    Of course their selections are entirely independent, but I'd say there are large overlaps with what Farrell wants and what Cullen/Lancaster wants tbh. What from the following would you not say about Leinster?

    Ireland play a dynamic game with a lot of moving the ball away from contact, fixing the defender and then trying to make sure there's quick ruck ball etc.

    Also on this:

    Oh come off it. Doesn't pick Moloney, we appeal to authority. Doesn't pick Kleyn, that very same authority is wrong. Moloney is a decent provincial level pro, he's not an international.

    Where exactly did I say he was wrong not to pick Kleyn?? Clue: I didn't.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 24,258 ✭✭✭✭Buer


    It doesn't really matter what Jenkins does or doesn't do. He's signed for a purpose for Leinster. But he can pass the ball also. He might average 3 passes a game but there are matches where he has passed it 5 or 6 times also. He's capable of playing that role. Again, Kleyn has 2 passes in 262 minutes of European rugby according to the EPCR site: https://www.epcrugby.com/player?PlayGuid=JK725498

    Jenkins (which is neither here nor there) has 3 in 54 minutes. If Jenkins was in contention for Ireland, he would be relevant.

    Ross Molony would be in the team if hands were everything but obviously they're not. If there are more rounded options who can handle the ball, carry over the gain line and compete in the physical stakes, they'll be preferred. And that's who Ireland have selected.

    Kleyn is having an excellent season. I'm just giving what I was see as fairly clear and stark evidence that suggest he doesn't fit the Irish team style. Nor am I advocating for McCarthy. He's a great prospect but he needs more game time at provincial level for me as his discipline continues to be an issue. You can be great but if you're going to conceded 2-3 penalties almost every match, I don't think you should be selected.

    If we're looking at a young player with a high ceiling who has a rounded game, suitable to the Irish style, I'd advocate for Niall Murray to be included. He has been excellent this season. The only drawback is that he might need another 3-4kg of muscle on him.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,626 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    This is where the stats sites fall down; EPCR site has him down for 2 passes and 11 metres carried in those games. The Munster site has him down for 5 passes and 41 metres carried.

    (Still not massive passing numbers, and I accept if we had stats straight from Munster, they wouldn't be through the roof. His tackle numbers on both sites are fairly consistent, and really impressive).

    But fwiw, going by the Provincial sites, Jenkins averages 3 passes a game, Kleyn 2.3. It's not an enormous difference.

    There's obviously also things that you don't see in the stats like maul d (Munster's was excellent on Sunday vs a big Toulouse pack) and the latch for the try.

    I don't think it's any great travesty that he wasn't picked. But I also don't think it'd be undeserved if he had managed to get selected. That's all I'm really saying.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It's not the only place where stats fall down. Leinster arguably have a lot more go forward / front foot ball so putting width on the ball against a retreating defensive line is an option that Kleyn likely doesn't have with the same frequency. Kleyn spends a lot of time cleaning up dirty ball into contact at or behind the gaineline. This is not going to create a decent stat picture, but if Munster start punching more holes with the likes of Snyman returning then I think we'll see a different picture from Kleyn.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Everleigh Freezing Oasis


    There is no point in comparing Kleyn to Jenkins. You might as well compare him to a fish or a birthday cake or some lawn furniture for all the relevance it has to Ireland selection.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,626 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    You really think that's a reasonable comparison to what's actually being discussed, and adds value to the conversation?



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,626 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    I'd agree. I'd also wager Leinster, on average, have more possession, which goes some of the ways towards explaining Kleyn's higher tackle counts. Factor in further stuff like minutes played (and possession in those minutes) and it just makes the stats all the fuzzier.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Everleigh Freezing Oasis


    Wh-wh-whatabout Leinster doesn't add any value, is the point. We're not talking about Leinster, it's a different team with a different set of coaches, and it's a player who is not eligible for Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,231 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    Kleyn, Molony or Treadwell, don't think there is much between any of them and I'd still favour the younger guy with more potential every day.

    No mention of development players in this squad, maybe when they get back from Portugal they'll add one or two, but I'd like to see Niall Murray in the camp.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,626 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof



    Wh-wh-whatabout Leinster... 

    Mod: Don't be a dick.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,920 ✭✭✭✭stephen_n


    McCarthy being there is no different to Crowley being there or Harry Byrne before him. He is not the 4th best lock in the country as things stand anymore than Crowley is the 3rd best outhalf. Both have huge potential but are far from the finished article.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,194 ✭✭✭Must love hardship


    If injury struck sexton between now and the world cup who takes over as captain?

    For Fiji Furlong was given the honour but POM, Ryan, Henderson and Ringrose were rested for that game.

    For the Australia game when Sexton pulled out I think POM was captain for the day.

    But if you go back to the last 6 nations POM only started 2 games and In an extremely competitive position isn't a guaranteed starter this year.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Everleigh Freezing Oasis


    Not a particularly big deal imo, one of POM, Ryan or Ringrose. Plenty of leaders in the squad.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,553 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    I don’t know why everyone assumes Ryan would be a good captain. He's a good player and would be a great leadership character on the field and in training. But the captaincy role involves loads of media and all that guff. Ryan doesn't look like he'd thrive in that environment at all.

    I always think he's a player who wants to focus on the job on the pitch and that's it. He's experienced now so he can be a leader in the pack and be a great leadership figure, but I think captain wouldn't suit him at all.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,952 ✭✭✭TRC10


    I don’t know why everyone assumes Ryan would be a good captain.

    I think that's a bit of a strawman. I don't think they do. Leinster and Ireland clearly don't as they've both replaced him as vice-captain with Ringrose and POM respectively.



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