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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 270 ✭✭tom_murphy112



    Head count reduction will mean redundancy for a good chunk of people. I know couple of people in Microsoft that are being let go and both of them were with Microsoft for over 10+ years. Last in, last out is not how it works in large MNC.. They bring in accountants and see what best way to restructure the teams.

    About 10 years ago, the MNC I worked in let go their entire first level support team, most were in their roles for over 20 years. Most were earning as much as a new mid level engineer would, by just being in the role for so many years and get small increment raise every year.

    It is going to be an interesting year for sure. Time will see how it plays out!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,386 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Most of these people if they have 10+years service will leave with 1-1.5 years pay as a redundancy payment. There will often be a voluntary element to it. 10 years ago in a company I was in it offered a VL deal lads with 4-7 years service were walking out the door with 20-40k. They used it to travel or as deposits on houses. They were mostly on fairly low paid jobs and got similar work elsewhere.

    People that are on higher wages will often use this as a chance to take a career break and if they have young families look after th for 3-6 years

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 713 ✭✭✭manniot2


    Interest rates will decide the fate of the housing market. Everything else is on the periphery, including job announcements and even supply.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 270 ✭✭tom_murphy112


    Oh no doubt.. I for one would be happy to get a nice redundancy, mortgage almost paid off and a nice 15+ years in my company.

    But I think the previous poster mentioned "I’m talking about a reduction in head count….doesn’t need to be redundancy." So I am not sure if he/she was alluding to "last in, first out"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    I’m not alluding to ‘last in, first out’….I was just pointing out it is a reduction on head count which can be from natural wastage of not renewing contracts and redundancy.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,386 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Most companies that do head count reduction offen try to make it financially viable to older staff. It's hard to teach an old dog new tricks. These people while often very capable workers are usually on 20-50% more than you ger workers. As well if you are in your late fifties and will walk out with 100k most of it tax free, draw no months unemployment benefit . These sort of packages are very attractive to certain demographics, people still single, those with no families, those that have other business interests on the side. The benefit for the company is you keep your workforce young.

    Companies will never denude there contract staff. Often a good percentage of these are very specialised and as well can be your most flexible staff. There is usually clauses especially for more specialist staff about notice of termination of contract.

    Even agency staff when made redundant have a cost as the agency as to be compensated for any redundancy payment made

    Another factor is that where contract staff should have been employees it can raise issues similar to RTE where it had to give these staff full time positions and compensate them for loss of maternity leave and other benefits.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 270 ✭✭tom_murphy112


    But those are never part of the figure. Companies regularly don't renew fixed term contracts, why would they want to call out them out unnecessarily. I have seen people being benched and let their contract run out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 270 ✭✭tom_murphy112


    Most companies that do head count reduction offen try to make it financially viable to older staff. It's hard to teach an old dog new tricks.

    LOL if I was an exec in a MNC, I wouldn't be mentioning stuff like that.. Can get you into hot water, remember reading about this a while back.

    https://news.bloomberglaw.com/litigation/ibm-settles-with-eight-workers-to-end-age-discrimination-lawsuit

    Either way, the figures will be run by accountants at the end of the day.. They will do whatever they find the cheapest for them long term.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,386 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    It not a fire and hire it's the way redundancy schemes are targeted. There is nothing wrong with that. EU employment laws are completely different to US law where even the most regulated are way below EU employment law. Look at the recent Twitter layoffs and the difference between what happened in Ireland and the US

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 996 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Impact of job cuts in tech heavy Seattle area.

    Job cuts at Amazon and Microsoft are the latest blow for the Seattle region in the US state of Washington, which is still struggling to recover from the pandemic-era destruction of the commuter economy that, as in many cities, is the lifeblood of America’s second-largest tech hub. Now a growing glut of empty office space in the city centre suggests things are likely to get worse before they get better.”


    “‘This downturn in tech is going to be devastating for Washington, and the long-term effects will be quite profound,’ said Jeff Schulman, a marketing professor at the University of Washington. ‘Tech companies have fuelled so much growth and change that when they tap on the brakes and go in reverse, it puts everything else in peril.

    https://www.msn.com/en-ae/money/news/layoffs-at-amazon-and-microsoft-deal-big-blow-to-second-largest-us-tech-hub-seattle/ar-AA16zUaT



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Redundancy is based on a role and not an individual. It might be the case that older people were on a older role which was higher paid and they made these roles redundant



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,386 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Large MNC will have team structures and multiple people doing similar jobs within a team or teams. The single defined roles will generally be in a specialised role who you may not want to lose anyway.

    If you are doing a large scale layoff ya a call center or similar can just lay off section's, close down location, in a large MN you just structure what you want to happen. It may cost a few bob extra but it's cheaper in the long run.

    Look at what happened when Dell left Limerick back in the late noughties even though they were completely closing the location they enhanced the offer

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 996 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    You can see the effect of rising IR's on the US housing market.


    This is the first time in history that home sales have declined for 11 straight months.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1616454482224885761



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 270 ✭✭tom_murphy112


    With regards to us, I would be more worried about Government finance rather that Interest rates. Current government have gotten used to good tax returns from these MNC, they have moved away from building social housing to leasing and or subsiding rents via HAP. We are spending everything as we earn, nothing put aside. Good times will last as long as MNC tax revenues keep coming in, when it stops or slows down. Who will pay for all the nice stuff we have gotten accustom to ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 244 ✭✭FedoraTheAura


    And reports are also saying the government has been informed of many more upcoming MNC layoffs than have been formally announced yet.

    Putting some of the tax windfall into the ‘rainy day fund’ will be what they may try and fall back on if the proverbial hits the fan and questions are asked about why they didn’t fix the roof while the sun was shining. I think I’m out of metaphors…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 996 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Yes I was surprised by this headline today and wondered what was behind it. I would tend to agree that it is likely to be a lot more cuts.



  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,229 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    The quote relates to energy prices not job loses. The paper in question is actually predicting job growth but at a slower rate instead of job losses.

    [quote]A section entitled “Adapting to an Energy Price Shock” says that: “Ireland is a net energy importer and so living standards will be lower than they would otherwise have been; this is unavoidable.”

    The paper says employment growth was expected to “soften” at the end of 2022 and into the early part of this year while remaining at low levels of about 5 per cent throughout 2023.[/quote]



  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Ian Guider was talking about the job losses on TLW yesterday evening and he said, perspective is needed. The job losses bring the tech companies back to where they were in terms of employed numbers in September 2022, they hired a lot of new people thinking that the demand which occurred for their products during Covid would continue to rise, it hasn’t, but staff numbers are not falling dramatically. He also said that as many of these IT companies have their European/world HQs here, the work is more specialised and less likely to suffer dramatic culls in numbers. Lastly, he said, few of those laid off remain unemployed for long as there is demand for their services in smaller IT companies and start ups, but they may not initially get the high salaries/perks that the bigger MNCs may pay.

    Its on the TFM player, just after 6pm news I think as that was the time I was driving home listening to it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 270 ✭✭tom_murphy112


    Don't want this thread to become political, but at this rate.. why would anyone take a single word they say as gospel ? The gov have been spewing passing commentary on a lot of the issues lately, while single handedly being responsible for it. Either way I would take anything they come out with as a grain of salt.

    As a person who bought a house just before the last crash, I know the pain. Gov leaders, Economic pundits etc never saw the 2008 crash coming or any other previous crash.. why would it be different this time ? Simply put nobody knows what will happen, time will tell. All we can then do is look back retrospectively and see signs that we missed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 996 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    I agree that there is merit in what he is saying, I just know from a wide circle of acquaintances (here, the UK and US) in the tech sector that there quite a few people looking for roles now. My LI feed is now regularly seeing someone ask for help in getting a role, this was not the case pre-November. As I work in the tech sector I hope it does not get much worse but unfortunately I think there will be more cuts coming.

    You then look at the financial industry and see the likes of Goldman Sachs cutting numbers and slashing bonuses (so I am making an educated guess they are not the only ones in this sector doing this).



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,432 ✭✭✭combat14


    huge number of coffee shops, restaurants closing as well all over the country, small business costs are currently just unsustainably high, we have't seen anything yet



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,386 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,386 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    This is a natural progression of a slowdown. Went in last week to meet a lad on the outskirts of Limerick. Left 25 euro for a tea, heated sandwich, a coffee and a sweet treat. Ya part of cost is we sat there for a little over an hour. But it was January and they were not busy.

    Discressonary spending is the first thing to shrink. It does not mean an economy is in a recession.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals



    Full speed ahead on enhanced leasing, hard to disagree with Desmond on this - "Businessman Dermot Desmond said funds were ‘having a laugh at Ireland’"


    State agrees deals to lease 150 Kildare homes worth €50m from investment fund — despite pledge to phase out practice



    On another note as many on here have said smart money exited the commerical game long ago.



    Irish commercial property market could lose €10bn in value in 2023





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,452 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    Gothic home in kilkenny with recording studio on over 6 acres 975k.

    While in Wicklow pretty non descriptive houses looking for 2.8 Mill. I remember someone put a link few days ago.

    Market outside Dublin definitely has gone down in price.

    Remember the shills only get paid when you react to them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    This is a piece from 10 years ago. Looks like we overcooked it and with the change in mortgage rules we are turning up the dial.

    Wonder if we will ever hear a call to increase supply to create a ceiling or cool the market from similar spokespersons

    "Because if you woke up tomorrow morning and the headlines in the Thursday property section of the newspapers read that property prices had increased by 10%, the wonderful factor of greed would re-enter the marketplace, and you would find that there is a turn in the marketplace."




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,432 ✭✭✭combat14


    looks like lenders are understandbly getting rattled by wave of tech layoffs here


    Irish mortgage lenders seek assurances from tech employers amid sector layoffs

    Bank of Ireland and other lenders want ‘letters of comfort’ 




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    How can an employer give a letter of comfort to a bank if they haven’t communicated to all employees or gone through the process with Unions….issuing a letter of comfort before this just opens the doors to court.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,010 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Discussing moderation on thread is against site rules. The other thread was closed as it was being used to avoid threadbans from this one, nothing else.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,452 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    Remember the shills only get paid when you react to them.



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