Mild/Warm Dry February`s?

The Irish February record max temp is 18.1C at Phoenix Park in February 1891, a long time ago. Cahore in Wexford got close with 18.0C in February 2012. They're the only times 18C has been achieved at an official Met station in Ireland during the month of February - not counting rounded 17.5-17.9C values. February 1891 had a fair amount of frost by many modern February standards but it was a mild month overall in contrast to the November to January period beforehand which was among the coldest ever recorded (including the coldest December in the Central England Temperature series where records began in 1659) and the February was also exceptionally dry. Phoenix Park had only 1.5mm of rain in February 1891. February 2012 was also a mild and dry month in Ireland whilst it was severely cold for much of Europe.

16C or greater has been achieved at an Irish Met station in the month of February in 2019, 2017, 2012, 2011, 2008, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2000, 1998, 1961, 1960, 1953, 1945, 1939, 1927, 1920, 1891. Mind the less available stations the further you go back. This gives an estimated return period of every 7 years somewhere in Ireland will achieve a February temperature of 16C or greater.

17C or greater has been achieved in 2019, 2012, 1998, 1940, 1920, 1891. This gives an estimated return of every 21 years somewhere in Ireland will achieve a February temperature of 17C or greater, 3x as rare as 16C. If these values do occur, they are very localised with most in the lower range of 12-15C. The average February daytime temperature in Ireland is typically 8-9C.

These return periods are nationally speaking, they don't into account local variation and station quantity bias. Also note how many years this century so far have achieved 16C compared to the 20th century. Station availability will play a small part here but of course background warming will have played a much bigger part especially as February is one of the months that has had the biggest positive change relative to the late 19th century climate.

A subsequent post, if I get the time, will look at mild and dry Februaries. The most recent one was 2019, away from some western areas, with an exceptionally mild second half including a record-breaking "winter heatwave" for western Europe.

P.s. the official max temp in February 1998 was 17.2C at Glasnevin. February 2019 had a higher 17.6C at Delphi Lodge (Mayo) and of course the aforementioned 2012 18.0C in Wexford.