Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

sydthebeat · 18-01-2023 01:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124294#Comment_120124294

i dont believe we need a significant running threat from out outhalf. i think we need an out half who can organise, and then pick the right play to allow for these outside players popping up in midfield to create these mismatches and off loads. Experience is a big part of seeing these patterns develop in real time during the game. I 100% agree that Crowley is undoubtedly a better running 10 than Ross Byrne, thats unquestionable. However even Sextoin at the moment hasnt got that running threat he used to have. Yes he will take a hole if its offered, but his big strengths is in his ability to organise options and to see the correct decision to take before it occurs. right now, i think Ross Byrne is the closest to this type of play making out half that we have, who isnt sexton.

Crowley is similar to Carbery when he first burst onto the scene. Great running threat, great feet and turn of pace. Crowley has the added advantage of being more physical as well.

aloooof · 18-01-2023 01:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124356#Comment_120124356

...but is that really a core skill of a 10?

I's argue it's a pretty core skill of a 10 in our attacking system, yes.

pickarooney · 18-01-2023 01:48PM

While I don't think the 10 needs to actually run that much I do think he has to be able to so the defence has one more option to worry about.

aloooof · 18-01-2023 01:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124357#Comment_120124357

i think we need an out half who can organise, and then pick the right play to allow for these outside players popping up in midfield to create these mismatches and off loads.

The problem with this is that if you have a 10 who doesn't possess a quality running threat himself, those mismatches are less likely to exist in midfield.

Former Former Former · 18-01-2023 01:54PM

Worth remembering that Crowley owed his caps to Frawley's injury, and Frawley would definitely be more of a ball-playing OH as well.

It doesn't look like Frawley will be back for the 6N so his window for making a push for the RWC is narrowing rapidly.

sydthebeat · 18-01-2023 01:55PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124413#Comment_120124413

i certainly dont agree with that.

Finn russell has a very limited running game but can pick a lock at 50 yards. Hell even sexton himself all through his career wouldnt have been known as the more effective running 10. He creates space by his organisation and decision making skills.

You dont need to have a great running game in order to be able to organise a back line and make the correct decisions.

Zeugnis · 18-01-2023 02:02PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124213#Comment_120124213

Check your maths ;)

aloooof · 18-01-2023 02:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124433#Comment_120124433

It's axiomatic; if the 10 doesn't possess a running threat, the defence can be far more comfortable pushing off him. (Which is pretty much exactly what we saw in RB's 2 international starts).

I'd have a lot of sympathy for RB (2 starts in Twickenham is almost as difficult as it gets) and our attack has improved a lot since then, so if he is called in, I'd expect him to be a lot better than his previous showings demonstrated.

I guess going back to where it originated from, my point is that if a running threat from our winngers who have licence to get involed is vital, then a running threat from our 10 absolutely is.

18-01-2023 02:12PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124404#Comment_120124404

Well, that's your opinion, but Johnny Sexton hasn't really been a running threat for probably 5 years now.

Arguably if you look at the all time list of RWC winning out halves, I would say only 2 would be classified as running out halves (Michael Lynagh and Dan Carter)?

Could make a very similar argument for the past 15 years or so of European Cup winners too, with maybe only Ntamack and Simmonds deemed running 10s.

18-01-2023 02:13PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124431#Comment_120124431

yeah, I think one of the attractions of either Frawley or Crowley as the third 10 in a RWC squad is their versatility. Both have played decent amounts of rugby at 10, 12 and 15.

Former Former Former · 18-01-2023 02:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124488#Comment_120124488

but Johnny Sexton hasn't really been a running threat for probably 5 years now.

Ah here. What?

aloooof · 18-01-2023 02:17PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124488#Comment_120124488

That's just not true tho; it's pretty incredible, and testament to him that even at 37, he's still an excellent line-breaking threat. And he certainly was at 32.

sydthebeat · 18-01-2023 02:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124473#Comment_120124473

It's axiomatic;

certainly isnt, rugby is a much more organic game than that prescriptive viewpoint assumes.

if you have a 10 whos more likely action is to scan for a running threat first, then that allows the outside defense to umbrella in, thus making it much easier to suffocate. It becomes an easier defense to make because that outside defense doesn't have to make decisions.

if you have a 10, like sexton or russell, who can throw a myriad of disguised passes due to their organisational skills, then a midfield and wider defense must hold because they are left with decisions themselves to make. Thats when holes appear.

its been widely accepted that we have change our system since farrell first come in to be a lot less dependent on Sexton, by having these extra playmakers pop up in midfield. That absolutely reduces any necessity on having a 10 whos first instinct is to run.

18-01-2023 02:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124503#Comment_120124503

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124514#Comment_120124514

He's not though, certainly not in the way he used to be.

He'll still carry the ball a few times a game, and keeps a defence honest, but a line breaking threat consistently?

Here are his stats for Leinster this season in games:

Ulster - 0 metres, 0 carries

Sharks - 18m, 8 carries (2.3m average)

Munster - 9m, 5 carries (1.8m average)

Gloucester - 0m, 0 carries

Connacht - 40m, 5 carries (8m average)

The Connacht game skews his season carry average and his overall stats up to 67m off 18 carries (3.7m per carry), but, from memory, he had one single linebreak in that game which probably accounted for 30 of his 40m.

Ross Byrne's stats this year (off a much larger sample size), are remarkably similar, 105m off 33 carries (3.2m per carry). Don't tell me one of these guys is still a huge carrying threat and the other isn't.

EDIT: I'm not slating Sexton here at all - but when I think of a running 10, I think of a 10 who's first instinct almost is to run. Guys like Beauden Barrett, Marcus Smith, Jack Crowley, Damian Willemse.

Do not credibly try to tell me Sexton is still (or possibly ever was?) a member of that club?

Buer · 18-01-2023 02:46PM

Sexton isn't close to the breaking threat that he once was but he still is capable of using his smarts and awareness to break the line. Is he a huge threat? No....but he is one. He also tends to mind himself a bit. He doesn't tend to take the ball to the line, releasing it last second or inviting the big hits in URC matches or CC games that are almost over before they start.

He made significant line breaks against NZ both by dummying Will Jordan in one game and also carrying the ball back with an exchange of passes on the narrow side in which led to a yellow card. He made a massive line break against Toulouse to create a try also.

Averaging out his metres per carry but dismissing them being skewed by a single significant doesn't make sense. There's no outhalf aside from 3 or 4 in the world who are making multiple line breaks in a game at a high level. Ntamack has made 17 carries for 48m in Europe this season, apparently. I'd imagine on most of those carries he was scragged to the ground or smashed. But on a couple of them, he probably made a half break and either released someone or the ball generated led to such a break.

You don't need to be bursting through the defensive line with a clean pair of heels to be a breaking threat. If you can get behind the gain line by avoiding contact and the defensive line has to reset, you're a breaking threat.

aloooof · 18-01-2023 02:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124541#Comment_120124541

Do not credibly try to tell me Sexton is still (or possibly ever was?) a member of that club?

The point isn't that Sexton is a member of that club; it's that Ross Byrne definitely isn't.

And I've been careful to say "running threat" not "running 10". Sexton defintely still has a better running threat than RB imo; there's degrees of magnitude here.

18-01-2023 02:50PM

Sexton has more of a turn of speed than people give him credit for - but he's not going to run in a try from 30 meters out and he's not going to make a break like Crowley did against Ulster. Most wont remember but when Tommy Bowe made that intercept against Australia in the 2011 Word Cup it was Sexton that was on his shoulder and first person there when he got shunted into touch. James O'Connor who got back for the tackle - very much a ball carrying 10.

With the level of organisation and detail in Ireland's backline - having a running 10 is useful but having subtlety and awareness, a good memory for detail and a good range of passes are also important. On quite a few of the above I'd have Byrne ahead of Crowley at this point in their respective careers. The difference is that Crowley can gain all the latter characteristics whereas Byrne won't uncover the pace to threaten anymore than he already does.

18-01-2023 02:53PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124624#Comment_120124624

Yeah, but I don't think anyone is saying Ross Byrne is a running 10. Equally, no one is disputing that Crowley is a better runner than Ross Byrne.

I don't think Crowley has shown yet though that he is better than Ross Byrne at fixing defenses and releasing players outside him, which to me are key attributes for a 10.

Leinster have one of the most dynamic attacks in European rugby, and primarily of late that attack is led by Ross Byrne. There are countless examples of recent games where the Leinster backline (with Byrne at 10) have shredded teams.

I can't think of one in recent times where Munster have looked particularly fluid with Crowley at 10. Can you give me an example?

It's also focusing on just one part (albeit an important one) of 10 play. Byrne is definitely a better kicker (from hand and the tee) and defender from 10 than Crowley right now too.

Once again, I think Crowley can and will get there, but he needs more game time at 10.

aloooof · 18-01-2023 03:05PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124541#Comment_120124541

Curious where you got the stats from btw, just out of pure interest.

18-01-2023 03:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124751#Comment_120124751

The Leinster stats I scrape from the Leinster website - after each fixture they'll provide them there. Munster typically do too, but annoyingly for a handful of games this season (Ulster in Thomond for example) they haven't provided them, which means I can't scrape a complete set.

For Irish games, the IRFU website provides good stats, and usually ESPN Rugby will have good stats too that I can check against.

Buer · 18-01-2023 03:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124767#Comment_120124767

The Ulster Rugby site has, by a distance, the best player by player statistics available for URC games of any team website. The game in Thomond is up there.

18-01-2023 03:32PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124866#Comment_120124866

Yeah, their data is excellent. I only became aware of this relatively recently (the Molecast I think), but will try to look at scraping it all and putting it alongside some data I have on other teams.

aloooof · 18-01-2023 03:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124767#Comment_120124767

It’s a shame they don’t have offloads, clean breaks and defenders beaten stats.

18-01-2023 03:40PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124922#Comment_120124922

Yeah, I can generally get those stats for Ireland games (and Ulster do have those stats), but Leinster and Munster don't provide.

If this isn't a tangent, and still connected to the Crowley / Byrne debate, I would certainly expect Crowley to be ahead on clean breaks and defenders beaten (Irish rugby stats for offloading are generally poor across the board), but, as I've said a couple of times, I don't think that would tell me he's a better 10 than Byrne.

I think Byrne deserves another shot. He was a guy who played extremely deep, but if you're watching Leinster this season, there are countless games where he's playing very flat and holding defenders.

His 29 min cameo where he turned the game against Ospreys recently is a very good example - he only had 1 carry (for 0m), but still created two tries that won the game.

Dubinusa · 18-01-2023 03:50PM

The threat of a run or line break is a key facet. Sexton still has that in his arsenal.

aloooof · 18-01-2023 04:00PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124662#Comment_120124662

I can't think of one in recent times where Munster have looked particularly fluid with Crowley at 10. Can you give me an example?

There's an obvious sample size issue here in that he's only started 2 games from 10 this season. (In the same way there's a very limited amount we can read into Ross Byrne's 2 starts for Ireland).

But I think the recent Ulster game he played well in. He had 1 or 2 wayward kicks from hand (tho Patterson's were a bigger issue) but overall, I think he played well. Using the Ulster site Buer pointed to, he's down for 5 defenders beaten. (Which is illustrative of exactly the point I'm making).

It's also focusing on just one part (albeit an important one) of 10 play. Byrne is definitely a better kicker (from hand and the tee) and defender from 10 than Crowley right now too.

I'm not sure it's as clear-cut that RB is a better defender tho. Don't get me wrong, RB is quality (I've previously said I think he's the best defensive 10 we have after Johnny) but Crowley has really stepped up in this regard over the last 6 months. He's easily Munster's most abrasive 10. He was responsible for 2 choke tackles against Northampton last weekend, for example.

sydthebeat · 18-01-2023 04:02PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124937#Comment_120124937

The ability of a 10 to stand flat is directly related to the speed of ruck, go forward of tight carriers, and general pack dominance. Byrne had to stand deep in his 2 irish starts due to our pack getting beaten and out ruck speed being slow.

if you watch the highlights of ross byrnes home leinster debut, against Northampton in the aviva in December 2016, youll see a player not at all afraid to play flat, as the pack gave him an armchair ride that day.

Former Former Former · 18-01-2023 04:08PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120125038#Comment_120125038

Using the Ulster site Buer pointed to, he's down for 5 defenders beaten. (Which is illustrative of exactly the point I'm making).

Did he beat four of those five in that one break though?

But you're right, sample size is where it all falls apart. I think we know where we stand with RB, for better or worse. We need to see more of Crowley at 10 because trying to gauge an OH on his performances at 12 or 15 is very misleading.

Assuming Sexton is fit, I really hope we release Crowley back to Munster for the 3 or 4 games during the 6N.

aloooof · 18-01-2023 04:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120125065#Comment_120125065

Agreed; the 4 games in and around the 6 Nations (Benetton, Ospreys, Scarlets and Glasgow) are exactly the type of games I'd like to see Crowley starting and doing well in from 10.

And with Ben Healy confirmed leaving, you'd imagine they'll be more inclined to try get the gametime into Crowley than picking Ben.

18-01-2023 04:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120125038#Comment_120125038

Yeah, I think Crowley is a good tackler unquestionably, and he's very aggressive, but Ross Byrne has a long proven track record of being a very good defensive 10. The transition for Leinster from Sexton to Byrne is seamless, and I can't think of any examples off hand of him being shown in defence (including even the rare days when he played at 12 and 13).

Also calling Crowley "easily Munster's most abrasive 10" is meaningless, when the other two guys are notoriously not abrasive 🙂. He is a very aggressive and game tackler though.

For that Ulster game, I really don't think he had a good game as a 10 in that game. He moved to 12 after 53 mins when Munster were losing 9-5. The bulk of those defenders beaten were on that infamous break that set up the late Healy try, but came when he had moved position.

Munster definitively did not look fluid in attack for large chunks of that game when Crowley was at 10.

I hear what you're saying on the sample size piece, but I still think it's a fair comment to say Crowley has played his best rugby this season in positions other than out half. I can't think of a Munster game this season where Munster as a team attacked well and put a lot of tries on the board while Crowley was at 10.

Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

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