A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Frank Bullitt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120126789#Comment_120126789

A quick google is your friend.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/amazon-kicks-off-round-of-job-cuts-affecting-18-000-people-1.1871465

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120126618#Comment_120126618

What is your definition of AI and how it will impact the ordinary person. Just curious.

Frank Bullitt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120127104#Comment_120127104

I'll chime in here and say things like self-driving vehicles, this will become more and more common in the next few years. Not just Teslas. This will impact truck drivers etc.

Chat support on certain websites will full be AI. So again, replacing people in jobs. Add security to that as well where AI can identify threats early.

Use of AI in medical practices, already in some cases AI has been more effective that humans at diagnosis's.

E-commerce where AI can identify trends for shoppers, personalization and automation (already seeing this) in warehouses.

The impact isn't always negative though, and AI can/will add value to peoples lives in certain ways. But it can equally be very destructive.

xxxxxxl

An example is the NHS has some kind of AI to alert for sepsis. 90% odd of hardware support could go to AI. Simply diagnosing and using statistics to tell where the point of failure would be and the most cost effective solution rolled out. Could be tied in with known issues Tech may be not aware of. Tones of things. And that's just one massive filed off the top of my head. Tech support is a huge sector. Simply wont be enough jobs to go around if that happened.

Ai will put all the programmers and accountants out of business..

I'd imagine haulage will be fine..while self driving vehicles sound cool I dunno how viable they'll actually be..

riddles

Insolvent central banks - toxic debts - bonds is THE market. How does this convert to reality for Joe Public in Ireland?

the value of bonds is deemed to be artificially inflated and then Ireland can no longer borrow money to run the country?

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120126885#Comment_120126885

But if you google a bit more, you will find that the information is incorrect. It is 18000 overall since November and not 18000 today. Official source: https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/company-news/update-from-ceo-andy-jassy-on-role-eliminations

it would mean 8000 today but it was not catchy enough for newspapers.

screamer

AI is amazing, only getting going. It is going to make a lot of laptop jobs obsolete, support customer service programming digital design marketing accounts just a few I can think of. I can see your gp shortage being resolved by a diagnostics machine that will be AI driven and fully equipped with ability to do X-rays and other diagnostics right there, complete with a computer generated human friendly face. What AI won’t replace is manual work that can’t be done in a factory setting where robotics are already working away. So, recession or AI tech well I know which one will impact us most.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120127577#Comment_120127577

They already are viable, Scania are using them in Sweden and France have just approved a self drive bus.

It's barrelling down quickly.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120127577#Comment_120127577

I have been hearing that for years re developers. "AI" will have a difficult time supporting the trillions of lines of legacy code in many different languages.

As for health applications, IBM's Watson Health was predicted as a magic diagnosis engine but it failed completely - too much manual intervention amongst other problems. They eventually sold off the product for parts.

PokeHerKing

I think when AI gets to the point where its noticeably replacing jobs across a wide range of sectors that we'll be pretty close to our extinction and it'll be the dawn of the machines.

I don't think we're there yet and hopefully I'll be close to going in a box by the time it does roll around.

timmyntc

Anyone who's worked with AI will know it is a long way off making programmers or drivers or doctors obsolete.

Even AI tech support is very basic - most of the AI chatbots are very limited. Even the much lauded ChatGPT spews total misinformation at times, because the AI doesnt actually understand the information it gives you. It only understands language structure. Everything else is fetched from a training database that may or may not be correct - only a human intervention can verify.

One of the reasons it will be stifled is insurance - we cant trust a human to lift a box without manual handling training, you need X different trainings and certs so that insurance will cover you in Y situations. How does that work with an AI model that cannot be trusted?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-17/asia-stocks-set-for-muted-open-before-boj-meeting-markets-wrap

Anyways this is all off topic, in real news investors still afraid of the dreaded downturn, all indexes down, currency up. Investors are wary of a recession and falling consumer demand.

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120127577#Comment_120127577

Been hearing this for 20 years

ELM327

AI is not intelligent or self aware. All it is is selecting the most likely text that fits the framework. You can train it with trillions of lines of text to make it seem accurate but it hasnt a clue what it is doing. Chatbots and the like already exist but we are likely at least a decade off anything being self aware. I don't think the current line of AI coding - large samples to give the most likely answer in text frame- is the best way to go about AI. It has no I as it is not self aware.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120127793#Comment_120127793

God help us all when AI takes over and most of us have no jobs and living off Universal Basic Income, beaten into submission

fliball123

The companies hitting the wall or running from Ireland is really ramping up not only are we in the process of 2 banks going now the likes of Argos are closing its Irish retail operation. People still have not coped on that there is a major recession coming.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/argos-to-close-all-irish-stores-42298572.html

AndrewJRenko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120128537#Comment_120128537

Recession or just a hugely outdated business model? Killed by Amazon and others more than any recession.

skinny90

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120128537#Comment_120128537

Its a shame Argos is closing...but at the same time, im not surprised.

For all their worth, how they operated soo efficiently etc they never really provided much value in comparison to prices vs other bricks and mortar stores.

Coupled with a terrible website both the uk and ie one it was only a matter of time really.

Years ago, they should have scrapped and rebuilt the site from the ground up as the UX on the legacy site was shocking

Have to say mind you, their customer service was top notch in comparison to other players

awec

I'm surprised Argos lasted this long tbh.

Price wise they were almost always more expensive, you were paying for the convenience of reserving.

But these days with Amazon able to get almost anything to your front door within a day their model was very outdated, particularly in Ireland where their physical presence was somewhat limited.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120128537#Comment_120128537

Covid killed them, and they never got the customers back.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120128593#Comment_120128593

I agree with the competition, but the same issues that was given for closing down are the same for a lot of SMEs and keeping the lights on is getting a hell of a lot more expensive and getting employees is ridiculously hard due to the cost of living and the housing crisis so its a combo of both. Also its only closing its Irish retail shops as its no longer viable to keep them open.

I mean Ireland seems to be most expensive place to live within the EU for day to day costs.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40900799.html

2nd highest when it comes to the cost of goods and services

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-second-highest-in-the-eu-for-cost-of-goods-and-services-1.4601568

and Dublin is the third most expensive city in the EU when it comes to construction costs

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/dublin-third-most-expensive-city-in-europe-for-construction-costs-1.4626876

Its not just the SMEs the MNCs are also under pressure. Tech are shedding jobs left right and center as well including another 8k from Amazon meaning 18k jobs have been lost. Add in Microsoft announcing 11k jobs being cut.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/18/amazon-set-to-begin-new-round-of-layoffs-affecting-over-18000-people.html

Already globally up near 40k jobs lost in tech from the start of 2023 that's less than 3 weeks. This will start to feed through to Ireland as we are overly reliant on Tech and Pharma for those big paying jobs.

https://layoffs.fyi/

At some point the math was going to stop adding up. , over 50% of working people did not get a pay rise in 2022 (and those that got a pay rise came no where near 40%) with the costs going up on average of about 40% (give or take) companies and workers where always going to find it hard to keep up.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120128662#Comment_120128662

They are closing because they are loss making. It's as simple as that really.

I have no idea what you think construction costs or Dublin being expensive have to do with this, nor what tech layoffs have to do with this particular case.

Tech is scaling back due to overly aggressive hiring during the pandemic based on inflated growth projections. There is no comparison with Argos at all, literally chalk and cheese.

I don't think we need to run around with our arms in the air screaming at this stage.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120128662#Comment_120128662

You make it sounds like no tech companies were hiring during that time. It would be more interesting to see the next figure of job losses/gains in those 3 weeks.

We all know the job losses are reported more than jobs created.

The 40% increase is on some materials, not all of them. So the construction costs haven't increased 40%. Shame the article doesn't mention what the cost was a year ago.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120128752#Comment_120128752

Construction costs feed into lack of supply of housing for sale and rent which leads into higher prices for both which leads into staff shortages due to not being able to afford to live in certain areas of the country. It is loss making because of the cost of living, energy and rent its no coincidence that its shutting now as apposed to 2/3/4/5 years ago

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120128768#Comment_120128768

Have you tried to get any construction work done in the last year. If not then you have no idea how much more expensive it is with regards to quotes now then it was say 18 or even 12 months ago. Its shocking the prices being quoted.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120128780#Comment_120128780

Staff shortages? You have literally just invented this in your head right now.

They are loss making because consumers have taken their custom elsewhere.

rob316

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120128618#Comment_120128618

Ya its a dead model. Have you ever went on their Irish site? Its not even mobile responsive, insane.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120128800#Comment_120128800

Are you for real? Staff shortages for a lot of our public services (teachers, garda, etc), Hospitality is really struggling to get staff as well numerous restaurants, pubs and hotels cant get staff. You should do a bit of research on staff shortages in this country. Once again they are not closing their retail units in the north or in England (surely these non -Republic of Ireland Argos units will have suffered the same competition with regards to losing custom to the likes of Amazon) they are just closing their Irish retail units and these are loss making due to the higher costs involved in trying to keep a place running in this country. As I said its no coincidence that it happened this year as apposed to 2/3/4/5/ years ago.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120128836#Comment_120128836

Absolutely nowhere is it suggested that Argos suffered staff shortages. You have invented this.

You are waffling. The hospitality sector, the schools etc are completely irrelevant here.

They are not closing their UK business because presumably their UK business remains profitable. You should visit Argos.co.uk and compare it to Argos.ie, and it will be immediately apparent to you that the investment model for both businesses was very different.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120128851#Comment_120128851

I dont think I said Argos closed due to staff shortages, I believe that was a different post about something different? If I did can you show me this?

Your presumptions are just that a presumption with zero fact. The fact is the cost of running a unit for business in Ireland is a hell of a lot more expensive than the UK. The online competition would of been the same for both countries