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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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Comments

  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,657 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Last year global nuclear capacity factor was 77.6%. Without the US it would have been lower. Their reactors are over 41 years old on average. Insurance companies used to give helicopter pilots with over 1,000 hours a lower rate, on the basis that they'd already gone through most emergency situations.

    In 2011 unplanned SCRAMS averaged one a year. That's blackout and cascade failure territory on a grid of our size. Look at what happened in Texas last February, hundreds died because there wasn't enough spare capacity. It's much improved it's now every two years, or if we had four reactors it would be every six months. Unless there was massive investment in spinning reserve and backup etc.



    In addition to the early closures there's also the overhead costs of the projects abandoned, on long term outage or delayed. https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/reactors.html

    There's also 26 constructions behind schedule, giving a total of 147 reactors that should be operating now but aren't.

    It's over a third of the number of reactors, 409, that are classed as operating.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,657 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Here's some epic can kicking. Someone's going to make a fortune on the interest payments.

    https://www.cityam.com/edf-secures-further-funding-for-hinkley-point-c-in-new-settlement/

    EDF has secured 14 years of funding for the UK’s upcoming nuclear plant Hinkley Point C in case of the risk of further delays.

    The French energy giant has agreed a new contract ensuring its funding even if it does not start operating until 2036.

    EDF confirmed to City A.M. the project is still on course for completion in 2027, following an approximately two year delay driven by the pandemic and supply chain disruptions.

    It is also roughly 45 per cent over budget – having initially been projected to cost £18bn, but now expected to be priced at £26bn.

    The new subsidy contract still includes clauses in the former deal, which was set to expire just three years earlier in 2033.

    This includes stipulations such as shortened payments to EDF if Hinkley Point C fails to start generating power by May 2029.




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,723 ✭✭✭SeanW


    I just thought I'd inject some reality back into this debate. According to Electricity Map, Germany (home of the Energiewende) is currently emitting 696g/kwh for the electricity it is using.

    The Energiewende was first floated as energy policy for West Germany in 1980 and 42 years later, this is all they've accomplished. Because it turns out that the laws of physics and thermodynamics have not been altered since 1980 and you still need sunshine and wind for solar panels and windmills to produce power, and during a winter anti-cyclone, neither of these things happen to a great extent.

    It does not matter how much money and natural resources you are willing to piss away in green hype, how much you are willing to industrialise the landscape (and with renewables, you'd need to do so on a scale unprecedented in human history), how many large birds (like eagles) and bats (i.e. driving them to extinction) you are willing to let windmills kill, renewables will always be unreliable. Full stop.

    Western Europe needs to get serious about its energy situation. Until recently, we've been totally dependent on Vladimadolf Putler over in Moscow for just about everything, especially gas that was being used as a "transition fuel." I always knew this was a mistake and something we should not do over the long run, though sadly I had no idea how right I was until the 24th of February this year.

    Part of that means recognising that our peak needs for energy are during winter, specifically winter anti-cyclones, and prioritising power supply types that actually work during such periods.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,336 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Got my lecky bill today.

    I am with BGE, and they give their average CO2 as 365g per KWh, with the national average of 258g.

    They have higher coal, ngas, oil, other, but much lower renewables. Av renewables for Ireland is given as 55.9%

    This is all for Jan - Dec 2021.

    If we are doing 55.9% renewables, we are doing well and should meet our 2030 target without thinking about nuclear.

    [Not that we could get nuclear by 2050].



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,657 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Of course CO2 is up. They are using other fuels while installing renewables.

    A 60% efficient CCGT is twice as efficient as a 30% coal fired boiler and on top of that gas has half the CO2 emissions as the same amount of heat from coal. It could be a factor of 4 difference between the best and worst on a grid.

    German fossil and nuclear this year. The three nuclear plants at the bottom had a lot of outages each would have destabilised our grid unless there was lots of reserve built to accommodate it.




    2012 Back when they had more nuclear plants and less renewables the CO2 emissions were higher because they were burning more fossil fuel.



    Even with more nuclear reactors there were still lots of dips - isn't nuclear supposed to be stable or something?

    Zooming in on the September dip 12.4GW in the first week falling to 4.16GW in the last week.

    If nuclear dropped like that during the dark calm days you'd be up the creak without a paddle because nuclear isn't dependable enough for baseload without having lots of reserve and backup.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,723 ✭✭✭SeanW


    Energiewende has been a policy dating back to the Cold War in the former West Germany, although at the time I don't think Brezhnev was pushing the DDR to follow suit back in 1980. The results today are a pathetic indictment of it after 42 years. France, as you will note, has only a fraction of Germany's CO2/kwh output despite its energy policies historically having literally nothing whatsoever to do with any Green concern. As for your claims of unreliability, note that Ireland is not a small market, 5 million here, 2 million in the North plus interconnectors with the UK mainland and soon France. While a nuclear plant failure e.g. a SCRAM in Ireland could be accommodated by extra output from storage, Northern Ireland, Britain or France (indeed exports outbound could simply be halted) seasons and weather patterns tend to be regional. E.g. a Northern cold front tends to affect not just Ireland but our part of Europe including the UK, and again things like sunset and winter occur at basically the same time in London as Dublin. We need more energy in winter, hence solar panels are a terrible idea, and wind speeds tend to fall precipitously during anti-cyclones like we had in December 2010. And yet it is on precisely this that some want to spend €83bn just on one windmill scheme without any backup plan. Crazy.

    As for your bizarre claim that CCGT is ultra-efficient at 60% well that is theoretical since we have serious problem with the supply of gas in Western Europe. As I predicted would happen sooner or later given where Europe gets (or got) most of its gas up to now. If there ever was a time for shilling for gas (and I never believed there was), that ended on the 24th of February 2022.

    And you still haven't shown that your policy is worth driving bats and large bird species to extinction because this is just one consequence of industrialising the natural world on a scale unprecedented in human history, I wonder why.

    Because windmills are an extinction level threat to bat populations and they are a more severe threat than the next threat White Nose Syndrome. The situation with regard to large bird species like eagles is similar. I don't understand why so-called "environmentalists" want to kill all the bats and all the eagles to make small amounts of expensive, unreliable so-called "green" energy when we've had better alternatives for decades.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,336 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Yea.

    Fusion has worked. They have had a net gain in energy from fusion after 70 years (or maybe 50 years) they have at last got more energy from the reaction than they put in. Not much, but a gain.

    So, in about 15 years to 50 years, they might be able to build fusion power stations that output electricity to the grid.

    Hmmm. Maybe we would be OK with that - if they were cheap enough and gave the right size of power output, and were safe.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,235 ✭✭✭Mav11


    Fusion has always been and still remains 20 years away.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,336 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Well, not any more.

    Fusion is here. It just needs scaling up a bit - well a lot really.

    That is at least 20 years away.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,849 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Renewables are nowhere near 55.9%. Last year Jan - Dec electricity from wind energy was 35%. A fall of 17% from the previous years 42%. (SEAI interim report March 2022). This year up until the end of November it was 34% and with the wind so far this month looks highly unlikely to go higher for the year.

    The energy regulator is looking into these claims from such companies of much higher renewable claims than actual generation. It seems some of these companies are doing a bit of creative bookkeeping with Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin Certificates where after being used in one country they are then being sold on to be used in another.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,657 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    2.05MJ of laser light on target resulted in 3.15MJ of energy released = 0.875KWh

    However it took 322MJ to power the lasers so there's still a way to go.

    Post edited by Capt'n Midnight on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,289 ✭✭✭RetroEncabulator


    I'm just reading back through the thread and the one thing I would just point out is that the UK's gas cooled reactors are a weird technology and I wouldn't really base anything on their lifecycle costs.

    Because of their enormous graphite core and sheer size (for very relatively little energy output compared to modern or even old PWR), they're an absolute nightmare to clean up and dispose of. They were very much a technology where the designers didn't think about the long term lifecycle at all.

    They also can't be life extended due to the graphite cores cracking and distorting. There's no way of mitigating or repairing that. Once they're gone they're gone.

    There's a reason why nobody ever adopted that AGR design, other than in its country of origin where there was a captive client and it was a state driven project (the old UK power boards).

    The previous generation 'Magnox' was even worse - it had problems like the fuel rods couldn't be stored in water for very long as they rapidly dissolve (basically rust). That was what drove the need for all the Sellafield reprocessing systems.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,336 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    It was this kind of thing that got nuclear energy ruled out of Ireland.

    Sellafield used to be called Windscale - until they had a nasty accident, then it miraculously became Sellafield. A succession of nasty radioactive leaks from Sellafield into the Irish Sea did not go down well on our side of it.

    We keep our emergency stock of iodine tablets in a safe place - even if they are out of date - they probably will still be better than nothing if required.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,657 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Before that it was the Calder Hall nuclear plant and now Moorfield is the proposed new one. What's in a name ?



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,657 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Some of them used up to 10% of the energy generated to power the CO2 pumps.

    Thing is EDF should have known that the graphite was worn out rather than promise they could extend their lives. Windscale fire was also due to mismanagement of the graphite annealing.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,336 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The cleanup at Sellafield, its insane

    121 billion and it won't even result in the waste being dealt with, merely stored in new containers until the proposed underground facility gets built, projected to cost 53 billion





  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    EDF suffers more delays with multiple reactor restarts

    Oh and in a surprise for noone, Flamville is delayed again, now over a decade late



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,657 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Renewables in Germany last week. When you add more wind and solar and use biomass for peaking rather than baseload there won't a need to run the grid off a power source that relies on constant guaranteed prices for it's output at all times.

    Even on the shortest days solar is still providing taking pressure off expensive peaking plant. It's the cheapest source and when it delivers electricity is at the highest prices.

    https://www.agora-energiewende.de/en/service/recent-electricity-data/chart/power_generation/25.12.2022/01.01.2023/today/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,787 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    and use biomass for peaking rather than baseload 

    And how do you propose to do that?

    as far as I can see, the only "biomass peakers" involve batteries or hydrogen generation at off peak times. Not really a peaking plant at all



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,657 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Most biomass in Germany is energy crops converted to bio-methane. You can use like natural gas.

    So instead of a steady 5.5GW you could save for when you need 21GW.

    https://www.agora-energiewende.de/en/service/recent-electricity-data/chart/power_generation/12.01.2022/12.01.2023/today/

    Stored hydrogen could be used for peaking too. The energy and capital costs are similar to what the UK have contracted to pay for nuclear for 35 years. Except the renewable costs will fall as their contracts are way shorter.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,625 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Would this be the biomass taking land from food and wildlife and butchering ancient forests??



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,621 ✭✭✭✭josip


    No, that's the other biomass you're thinking of.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,787 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    biogas cannot scale massively as it relies on large amounts of crops grown specifically for biogas. The land use is huge, especially at a time of increasing food insecurity worldwide.

    Also the economics of using biogas plants as peakers isnt great either

    As for hydrogen - you need excess power to generate the hydrogen (a lot of excess if its based on electrolysis), and then theres still the issues of stable storage and trying to get a "clean" burn. Much easier if its stored locally in dedicated storage surely as opposed to using the existing NG infrastructure as was suggested previously, but its a non-trivial problem.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,657 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Food isn't a problem. Subsidising things like corn to produce ethanol and high fructose corn syrup is a problem. It's low quality rubbish.

    Growing stuff like miscanthus doesn't have to affect food production either.

    Germany are already getting 5.5GW of it and their natural gas peaking is 21GW. It's the same stuff, methane so it's already happening.


    Nuclear doesn't generate excess power. Renewables like wind , wave and solar do. Clean burn tech exists, it's mostly about preburning at a lower temperature, but you can use adblue (made from hydrogen) to capture emissions if you are paranoid.

    Hydrogen production is inefficient and has a low energy density but storing it in old salt domes or gas fields means you have a mechanism for months of storage at costs directly comparable to nuclear's everyday cost. It's not the cheapest storage but it's huge. It's the fallback position.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,427 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Food isn't a problem, until you replace valuable tillage land with energy crops ..

    Mescanthus growing didn't really work in Ireland , it grew alright , but it was hard to sell for bio-fuel,

    In theory it's easy to harvest with existing equipment , in practice its harvested in winter ,and the ground can be very wet .

    Willow is similar,

    Using fertilizer,made from gas, to grow corn, to make bio-gas , to use instead of gas is , Inefficient, the overall round trip efficiency is questionable , if you can do it largely with waste products, the figures get a lot better

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,625 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Your first line is exactly what is happening in Germany with Maize been grown specifically for those biodigestors



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,427 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Not just Germany , it's done in many countries including the UK . there are commercial biodigesters here as well ,both north and south but it's more developed in the north , ( I don't think theres any commercial unit using specifically grown feedstock south of the border )

    I'm not sure of the math in terms of energy efficiency for AD, but if it's using Maize as a feedstock and you include tilling- fertilizer,harvest ,transport,ensiling and , the running of the AD plant ,and then transporting of the digestate and spreading it's going to be close to energy neutral...

    Waste (animal and crop ) can change the math fairly substantially , and crops other than maize ( like red clover ) can change the equation quickly ...but transport is the killer

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,657 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    I had thought it was grown on marginal land with limited inputs and wasn't there something about harvesting it in summer when it's greener if you want to digest it for methane where water content isn't a problem rather than winter where you want it as dry as possible for peat replacement ?

    Growing it on good farmland with lots of inputs really isn't worth doing. At least in future the residue from bio-digesters and nitrogen fixed using green hydrogen should result in a more circular system.

    The principle still stands that it's a form of offsetting carbon when done right and gas can be stored.

    It's one of many renewable "top-up" options deliverable in the short term.


    There's simply no advantage in waiting for nuclear. Especially since doing that would require lots more fossil fuel to be burnt.



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