Russian warship, go f**k yourself!

It’s hard to see a kind of significant ‘push’ to dislodge Putin thereby leading to a new ‘regime’ and God only knows what kind of a direction that would take. SO , THEREFOR no change at the top for the foreseeable future.

BUT, BUT, BUT every fire starts with a ‘SPARK’ and it needs only one person- could be any person, civilian or army, young or old, male or female, Local or foreign to provide that SPARK. There are PLENTY of PRECIDENCES. EG the Iranian situation where a young girl died under police custody; the young Tunisian man trying to get a licence to street trade and set fire to himself in frustration and it set off a wave of major protests in loads of countries- were they called the Arab spring; BEN Dunne found behaving irrationally on a balcony in an Orlando hotel lead to loads of tribunals in Ireland ; was the start of the First World War started by an individual who shot some leader/senior member of government in Sarajevo, etc, etc, etc.

One such a spark in Russia could be provided by one ‘deranged’ individual who has access to Putin for just one second.

There is a large Muslim population in Russia and individuals- depending on the sect, eg Sunni, - carry out FATWA on individuals who do things that upset such individuals - leading to death . Efforts on Salma Rusti come to mind- they failed so far. The theatre disaster in Paris a few years ago where 9 losses their lives. That Paris Magazine that ‘lampooned The Prophet Mohammed - 3 or 4 of the staff were killed. At around the same time a young teacher met with a voilent death by saying something unacceptable to Islamic teaching according to the individual ; the British MP that was murdered in his office two or three yrs ago..

Most if not all of the above was. Carried out by individuals acting alone or in very , very small groups.

so you do not need to be near an upstairs window to pass on to the next life !!!!!!!!!

Aside from Putins inner circle, can you see anyone getting within killing range of him? Or having access to his food? Change has to come from the top. And He has a special detachment of guards whose very lives depend on keeping him alive. So its a wait for natural causes.

Yes, for sure 140 Million would be more than enough numerically to remove Putin. But the difference is that Putin, like his counterpart Mt. Kim has removed that choice,,, completely! Now it will take massive social unrest to generate enough momentum to break that logjam. And remember, in North Korea, even famines have not triggered regime change. Back in 2011 when Putin was far weaker than he is now, 50'000 people protesting on the streets in Moscow ( and other City's) over forged Parliamentary results failed to remove him.

It's very hard to take any of that serious. You obviously weren't involved in farming in Russia? (This is the farming forum).

If a large amount of the Russian grain harvest has to be cut by hand, it means that a few billion people were wiped out by nuclear war and all that is left is a few survivors subsisting without access to oil.

No Yosemite, I'm not involved in farming, but I remember as a student working for an agricultural company that sold, serviced and hired out agricultural machinery, including combine harvesters, and I remember helping the mechanics prepare them for the harvest season. And once the season started, there was always a mechanic on standb24/7 for the duration of the season to cover breakdowns. And they did break down. Plus back then, they were much simpler than todays machines, combatively speaking. Anyone fixing nearly any kind of machinery nowadays, will need a computer, and in most cases, only the main dealership will be able to perform certain functions, maybe you have already come across this with your car? Hence my comments about agricultural machinery stolen in Ukraine, and shipped back to Russia where it was subsequently tracked down and disabled over the internet.

I've lived in Russia for several year's, and travelled extensively, so have seen the vast wheatfields, and what is left of the massive Soviet enterprise farms, called "Collectives" but now broken up into private enterprise. But during the Soviet times, when their machinery was very basic, frequently broke down and not as capable or efficient as it is today, hundreds of Russians would be called to their local collective to help with the harvest. And that involved using scythes and lots of other hand tools, rakes etc. Labour in Soviet Russia was never a problem because back then it was a crime not to have job. But in times gone by, we had this too in Ireland when the Scythe and hay rake were a common sight on Irish farms. I'm sure that there are plenty posters here on Boards that remember what Farming was back like in the 60's, 70's and 80's when machines were not as plentiful as they are now, and a lot more manual labour was required.

Your mention of Nuclear war, I do not understand how it fits in the conversation. So far since Hiroshima we have not had any Nuclear wars, to the best of my knowledge.

The whole point of my comment yosemitesam is that Russia prior to February 2022 was in a completely different place to where it is now, or will ever be again ( at least for many years) Putin's war has completely ripped the very fabric of Russia Society apart in every aspect. The departure of key people from society leaves black holes that cannot be filled. The Russian economy now resembles a swiss cheese, full of holes.

Tony, if the Russian soldiers are well motivated, why do they need two lines behind the front line to keep them in place? So line one, the meat for the grinder, are kept in place by line 2, who in turn are "motivated" by line 3 Wagner,. Well, if the Russians are not giving up Soledad easily, well neither are the Ukrainians. The Soledad story is far from finished, IMHO.

They're also Russians that are in those second and third lines. The Russian army are brutal with conscripts in normal times not to mind now This is nothing new for them just keeping the better trained soldiers alive longer. Soledar is lost to Russia for now anyway after Ukraine fighting there for the last 5 months

If I went into your house headquitter, dragged you out and dumped you unceremoniously into the back of a prison van, would you consider that you were being obedient? Because that's what is happening to anyone who does not go voluntarily to the recruiting centre's when summoned. Come to us, or we will come for you, and believe us, if we have to do that, it will be much worse for you. But its your choice. And in that situation herdquitter, how do you see yourself reacting? Any action carried out under any kind of threat is not being obedient, it's coercion.

And presently, I cannot see any change in the system at least until Putin and his entourage goes. And neither would I blame ordinary Russians for choosing to join the military when called, or alternatively go to jail. Now in further desperation, Putin has ordered the creation of a new battalion , specifically for Russian's who refuse join the military, or to fight, or who desert. Its based on the German Penal Battalion of ww2. The Strafbataillon or penal battalion. I cant fault Russians who literally have to gun put to their heads in Russia, but Russians living outside Russia are a different matter...they could and should be protesting every single day about their opposition to Putin and his war.

herdquitter, I'm not trying to justify or support Russian activity, ( which I vehemently detest) neither do I need to look at telegraph or twitter or any other publication to see what an army, Russian or other wise are capable of doing when it comes to atrocities. I know what they do, because I've seen it. You claim that the Russians themselves will have to and should revolt against Putin, as other Country's have done in the past, and are currently doing in Iran, for example. So that's fine and good when it works. But the problem for me is that with Russia, I don't think that it will work and I've given my reasons why it will not work in my previous posts. It will not work in any Country where the Dictatorship is too strong, and is totally in control of all the levers of power. I quoted the Kim dynasty in North Korea as one such example, but there are others. A quick google of long lasting dictatorships will give you quite a list of dictator's who lasted for a very long time, and died of natural causes at the end, and in many cases, having survived several attempts to remove them.

Putin will only be removed if he dies (A) from natural causes, (B)The Russian Military stages a coup, (B) Collapse of the entire system, triggering mass protests throughout Russia and he is killed. Other than that, it will be business as usual. But presently, I can't see where the few ( or many ) brave men you mention will come from, so I would not be pinning my hopes too much on them as a solution. And this is not to be taken as support for Putin or his detestable murderous Regime.

And again, the same " Its the Russians fault, they could change it if they wanted to" argument and multiple times I've explained why that's not going to happen, because it cannot happen. In twenty years they have not been able to get rid of Putin, despite several attempts. Same as in North Korea in 78 years, the Kim family have ruled with absolute power and total control over each and every aspect of their citizens lives, from birth to death. North Koreans live or die at the whim of Kim Jong-Un. Russians pretty much the same under Putin. So no, I cannot see ordinary Russians having any control whatsoever over what Putin and his Oligarchs do, much less rise up in revolt even if they wanted to.

Another aspect of Russian society/ culture is the complete lack of thrust. Everybody , apparently is a spy there be it your neighbours, your ‘best friend’ (they can be coerced by threatening them or bribing them) even your family members.

so because of the above culture , it would be very hard for a small group to organise anything - AT ANY LEVEL

https://youtu.be/jO94rW4tHNs

€9k a month?? do you honestly think he was ever going to see that money?

Well Wagner have been attracting ex Russian soldiers for the past 10 years to go around the world doing every nasty thing you can think of and this lad wasn't at the bottom of their organization so ya I think there's a good chance he would have been paid if he lived long enough.

Where Wagner is concerned, I'd say that they were making mega bucks in any Country they were active in. Originally Prigoshin organized them as a "For Hire" mercenary military group, and any Country the were active in, involved deals with the local regime to help them stay in power, so it was a very lucrative business to be in. That may well have changed now, as Vlada needs them fighting for the motherland.

From the prison's? Yes, I think. Less prisoners, less mouth's to feed in the Prison. Less criminals back in society, possibly permanently, no death benefits ( lada's) to the next of kin??? So win -win for Putin. Survive 6 mths, and your criminal record will be wiped clean, and then if you like, you can rejoin as a "normal" salaried soldier. But I imagine as the carrot on the offer, they would be paid a certain amount....if only because they are expected to fund their own equipment and other needs in the field. The benefits are not great in this kind of job, to be honest 😂 But against that, conditions in Russian prisons are not great either....

Yes, if he lived. Wagner recruiting would drop to zero if word got out that they were not paying their recruits.