Russia - threadbanned users in OP

The purposing, planning, intelligence quality and deliberation behind Ukraine's actions like these strikes is very impressive. It's not Putin whose a couple of chess moves ahead.

Detentions in Moscow-

Probably what may happen (think it kind of already is happening...?) is that the gap between them launching very substantial cruise/ballistic missile barrages will get larger, the quantity launched in them will reduce, and/or maybe the quality of the likes of their modern cruise missiles will degrade further as Russia has to use some poorer quality components + hacks to make any new ones (once the old stock is gone).

I have to say I have my doubts about them ever running out of such missiles as things stand.

Articles on sanctions evasion by Russia from November:

Unfortunately, Russia still seems to be able to access some "dual use" high tech stuff coming from the West or involving the technology/IP of Western countries that either already is sanctioned [or if not, should be sanctioned].

A number of 3rd countries are selling them this stuff, likely profiting massively off this war + the growing Russian desperation (would expect their suppliers will soak them!) and acting as conduits like Turkey, China. Another benefit of the long era of thoughtless/naive globalisation. Hard to stop it, but really I think some secondary sanctions should be starting to come in - esp. on Turkey given it is in NATO (on paper anyway!). They really have been permitted a huge amount of freedom so far to play both sides for their own benefit free of cost rather than make any choices.

Some pain should be doled out to any suppliers that may be fulfilling sudden large spikes in ordering of equipment from likes of Turkey and not asking questions at all + just taking the windfall profit. I dunno maybe make a few strong public examples if can be proven etc??

I think Russia will go full steam ahead firing as many missiles as possible until they reach about 10% left. They'll keep these and will only fire newly produced missiles along with Iranian missiles which they'll have acquired by then.

They fired over 1000 cruise missiles this year with over 700 either shot down or malfunctioned. I think next year they will fire less and a higher % will be shot down.

I think next year is the year they'll exhaust Russian stocks of many different types of weapons including combat vehicles and will be down to using absolute trash by years end. I also think they'll have exhausted whatever Iran and north Korea can spare.

If Ukraine have a net win in 2023 they're fucked because unlike Russia they seem to be get better trained and better weapons so only getting stronger. Ukraine will never settle for a ceasefire so Russia will have no option but to keep throwing cannon fodder at the lines to hold them back.

Russia of course has the option to just leave but even if they accept defeat I'd expect Putin to order his entire army to defend Crimea where Ukraine would take heavy losses to take back an area that's 50% Russia already.

The fact remains Putin could just leave, humiliated of course but he'd probably get away with never having to pay reparations, handing anybody over and sanctions would be lifted as long as Ukraine were free to join the EU and NATO.

I think the EU should ask Switzerland and Hungary for a full accounting of their commerce with Iran, Russia and their close allies. They are more likely a problem than Turkey, who are building a drone factory in Ukraine. Israel needs a serious looking at by the US, also.

Much as I am hesitant about notable Turkish duplicity and don't trust them, the objective facts are that they have been vastly more helpful than many countries you'd think should have been more onside. They have supplied lots of offensive weapons, unlike Israel or the Swiss; they supplied offensive drones, whereas the US didn't and still refuses to. They closed the Bosporus straights to Russian warships and they assisted massively with enabling Ukrainian grain exports by really sticking it to Putin and forcing him to allow it to happen.

I really am gritting my teeth in defending Turkey in any way, but the facts require it.

Russia, a country of women and FSB men.

They won't win

No .

Ukraine is winning

150,000 dead????

Correct. I do have an opinion. Like everyone else on this forum. Most may not like it but that's the way it is. I just take exception to the massive loss of life, on both sides, and am extremely concerned when the narrative being played out is that Ukraine is winning. It generates a false perception which only prolongs the conflict.

What’s the latest on the war. Both sides dug in for winter or what?