Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Please note that it is not permitted to have referral links posted in your signature. Keep these links contained in the appropriate forum. Thank you.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2055940817/signature-rules
Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest

Is Elon Musk hurting Tesla? (Mod Note Post #1)

1356718

Comments

  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 8,086 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    Mod Note: @[Deleted User] take a week off this thread. Once again you've chosen to use it to discuss boards.ie moderation instead of the topic



  • Registered Users Posts: 186 ✭✭Fantana2


    Share price taking another big hit today, pressure on the board must be immense.

    6.96kwp South facing



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,086 ✭✭✭silver_sky


    Q4 earnings call will be interesting to say the least



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    RTE news : Twitter CEO Musk to step down once replacement found


    http://www.rte.ie/news/2022/1221/1343077-musk-twitter

    And so much for that saga, it'll be interesting to see how the share price responds today

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    As I said earlier the quicker somebody removes that phone from him the better. He has done amazing job with pointing SpaceX and Tesla to the right direction and more of that please and less Twitter. I hope he'll help driving the 4680, Model 2, and Cybertruck teams and that team planning trips to Mars at SpaceX. We need more positive stunts like that Roadster to space and less "alienate everybody" tweets.

    Keeping a close eye on the TSLA to buy some when they have reached the bottom. Perhaps yesterday was it. Musk was very lucky selling many of his when he was forced to do so to pay for TWTR and the taxman.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,109 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Tesla shares are currently trading at about $140, back in August, pre-twitter buyout, it was worth about $300 and in November 2021 it was at the peak at about $400

    If he's offloading Twitter logic would say the share price will go up again



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,425 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    I don't know.

    Tesla is fundamentally overvalued - It was massively overvalued at ~$400 a share and it's still overvalued at it's current $140-ish level.

    When you compare Tesla to any other car manufacturer the valuation is way off.

    There are multiple companies that sell more cars , for more revenue and crucially for more profit than Tesla and they are valued way below where Tesla is , even today.

    Now that all the "big guns" have largely caught up and perhaps even surpassed Tesla in terms of Electric vehicles there is only one way for the Tesla stock to go.

    If Teslas stock was priced using the same core measures as are used to value Toyota , VW or GM for example , it would likely be another 40-50% cheaper than it is today even after losing 50%+ of its value this year.

    Tesla will either get bought out by one of the big players or it will continue to shrink and consolidate and end up somewhere similar to a company like Jaguar or Volvo in terms of market share etc.

    Not a bad place to be , but not anything remotely close to the most valuable company in the world as it was at one point in the last few years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,275 ✭✭✭✭josip


    What car companies have a greater profit margin per EV than Tesla?

    Which of the big guns have surpassed them? Toyota with the wheels that fall off or VW where you have to park your car in the road away from your house to get good enough signal with just the right amount of charge and then do one of the key fob/fuse quirky trick things in order to install a software update on the 4th attempt?

    (Disclaimer: I don't own a Tesla, I own a Leaf)



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Tesla is in a different position though from the big players as they don't have any legacy operations like engine and transmission factories. And apart from Fremont all of their factories are state of the art and brand new with room to expand. And the fact that they do all the software inhouse allowed them to use non-automotive processors and other chips. So they have been very resilient to supply chain issues that the other manufactures have been suffering from. The high market valuation does reflect this and I feel majority of the recent slide has been due to their CEO loosing the focus. The fact is that the Tesla's profit margin percent per vehicle continues to be high thanks to most of their competition suffering from low production volumes due to supply chain issues they are having.

    I fully believe we have not seen anywhere close to the peak Tesla sales yet and unless the customers get bored with their lineup there is so much scope for extra production thanks to the capable factories and lack of component supply issues. But they will need to continue to invest heavily to be able to be able to get into proper mass market. They'll need to challenge the Chinese makes like MG at the affordable end of the market. And they will need to get the 4680 process running properly to be able to fully launch the Semi (50k units a year) and to bring the Cybertruck in the market. Latter will very likely sell like hotcakes in their home market if the price and specs like the towing range are right. And for that they again need the 4680 cells. The fact is that Tesla cars are very well thought out and just work and have a very consistent build quality now. They suffer from niggles like the auto wipers and the fact that they shot themselves in foot by removing the proximity sensors but mechanically and electrically as well software-wise they are very good and highly reliable products.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,425 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Tesla doesn't make the top ten in terms of total Revenue and now the big players are active in all of the vehicle segments with EV's.

    Tesla are going to struggle to keep up with the sheer volume and capacity..

    The majority of car sales are in the mid-sized family segment - The Golf/Passat , Focus/Mondeo and the equivalent sized MPV/SUV that most people buy in recent times.

    If you are looking to replace a 6 year old Tiguan or Tuscon etc. you are not buying a Tesla - You are most likely going back to the same dealers and trading in for a new EV version on a finance deal.

    Globally Tesla delivered a little less than 1M cars in 2021 , that doesn't get them into the Top 15 manufacturers by volume - 15th place was Mazda with 1.1M

    By comparison , Toyota at number 1 sold almost 10M in the same period.

    The don't have enough models/variants to get their sales into that sort of volume and historically they have struggled to bring new models to market particularly quickly.

    In 5 years time , Toyota, VAG et all are still going to be turning out 9 or 10 million cars a year and the majority of them will be EV's.

    Tesla might still have a better car , but most people aren't going to be buying them.

    Look -I'm not saying that Tesla are going to go bust or anything , but the idea that they should be valued at many multiples of companies like VAG or Toyota etc. is not realistic.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,275 ✭✭✭✭josip




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Tesla are a still a small player. But based on the fact that they sold about 0.5 million vehicles in 2019 and now over a million that sounds like a better trajectory compared to Toyota that actually produced just over 8 million cars in FY 2022, a bit better than they did in 2021, but both years were behind 2020.

    Meanwhile tesla is growing a lot:


    Their quarterly deliveries up to 2021:




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    For years Tesla has been valued as a tech company, not as a car company. It's share price was based on the potential value of its self driving technology among other things


    I would say it was also artificially high as well, investors trying to keep the stock price high and ensure their own profits

    I think we're seeing that ending somewhat, self driving is way off and frankly if I was betting on future EV technology I'd be looking at BYD or another Chinese brand. They seem to be catching up to Tesla fast

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,109 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    If share price is valued on self driving the company are going to go bust very soon. I think it's more valued on things like premium-end cars and super fast charging stations, some of which have exclusive use to their customers so I think they'll be ok

    At the moment other manufacturers are struggling to produce cars, Tesla by comparison send a boatload to Ireland 3-4 times a year on schedule. Unless other manufacturers get into gear (pun intended) they should be fine also



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,275 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Would you trust your investment in a Chinese company? Xi might wake up some morning and decide he wanted to do another "Jack Ma".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    I didn't say they're going busy but I think the share price we're seeing now is probably more representative of Tesla's true value than before, when it was based largely on hype


    That's not to say it won't go up, it'll be interesting to see how Elon's resignation from Twitter affects the price

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,820 ✭✭✭MojoMaker


    Who in their right mind would take over as CEO of Twitter with Musk remaining as an active leader within the business?

    Maybe one of his buddies, but again would that really be an impartial and independent move?

    February's poll: Should I fire the new CEO? (Vox populi, vox dei)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,779 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    Get your car serviced by a salesman, sure where else would you get it?




  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,275 ✭✭✭✭josip


    I would expect nothing less from you Andrew and wrong as usual.

    To be fair, they are focusing on easier tasks, like changing tires.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,779 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    Good job it’s nothing important or safety critical. Just the tyres.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 978 ✭✭✭SchrodingersCat


    I would be turned off buying a Tesla now. I would not be chuffed giving a fool like himself my support. Plus, some great EV's are coming out from the competition. It seems like Tesla have lost some of their lead in the market while Elon was distracted.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    Wildly off topic, if anything Musk focusing on it would be helping Tesla


    I've known plenty of people who could screw up a tyre change. I'm a great believer that if I'm paying for something I'd expect the person doing it to do a better job than I would

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,779 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    How does putting untrained people into service roles help Tesla?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    From the article it seemed like Elon was trying to address the problem

    It's a valid topic for sure, but I feel this is the wrong thread for it

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,779 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    I'm not sure how putting unqualified people servicing cars will address any problem.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,682 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    electric cars are more resource intensive to manufacture than conventional ICE cars , Teslas use a lot of aluminum obviously, and the amount of copper,and other expensive elements in any electric car is way higher than an ICE car , plus theres the battery that makes them heavier overall ,

    In a situation where these resources become much more expensive, if only because of the high intrest rates and high energy costs (needed to extract and refine them ), let alone demand , are Tesla likely to price themselves out of the market ..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The key difference is the EOL though. Where did all of those tons of extra material that you ICE used in its lifetime go?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    Pretty sure having a higher profit margin gives you an edge over the competition, you can sacrifice some profits and keep prices where they are while others are forced to make tough decisions

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,682 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    EOL ? Lifetime energy use ?

    The killer on that could be high intrest rates , paying high up front isn't as attractive in a high intrest environment..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,682 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    True .. but can you keep that high margin if your raw materials cost has gone significantly up, and in a scenario where you've also huge debt ( it's a newish company ) , any intrest rate increases are critical , also at some point as Tesla stock stops increasing , Investors are likely to start treating Tesla as an automotive or industrial stock and less like a tech firm , and start requiring a return on investment, so high profitability per car produced could evaporate very quickly..

    Or not ..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,028 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    Not sure if its Musk, economic conditions or interest rates but it seems something is dampening demand for Tesla vehicles


    Tesla doubles discounts on mainstay vehicles to $7,500 in U.S





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,670 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Cost of borrowing in America is rapidly rising, the Fed have been very aggressive at raising rates it's about 4.5 now and a year ago was 0.25


    Off the top of my head, but you get the savagery of it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    Did a bunch of people delay delivery as well because the new incentives haven't kicked in yet?

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,820 ✭✭✭MojoMaker


    The federal incentive in Jan is 7500 so in order to shift cars in December it makes sense to at least match that. Quirk of the US market more than a tailing off in demand - sure we don't register any new cars here in December either, but imagine an Irish dealer making a decent end of year offer? No chance.

    As for pricing themselves out of the market - at the moment they are erring on the more affordable side for what they offer and their new model for 2023 is already cheaper than the equivalent vehicle from their main rivals.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Right, unlike that extra copper the tons and tons of extracted liquid fuel pumped through the fuel tank of ICE in its lifetime will be lost for good and can't be recycled in the end.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    Oh but the guys from Exxon and Aramco said that magically appears from the petrol pump 😂

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,779 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    Share price is own 7% today, 68% year to date

    This isn't sustainable. Something's got to give.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Continuing to keep an eye on the right time to invest. I suspect so are the big investors. For the time being at least the company is still safe from a hostile takeover as they are a very expensive fish compared to other car companies.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,276 ✭✭✭Ubbquittious


    There are enough other EV to choose from now that the magic Tesla pixie dust has worn off



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Easier to store than H2 but will just release the CO2 back to the atmosphere after use. I guess you could call it recycling and better than bio or fossil sources. Not enough interest to check what the energy balance of it is compared to electrolysis.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    Liquid fuel from CO2, could have come from literally anywhere

    Growing trees would probably be a better way to capture carbon

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    Interesting, there's obviously not as much confidence in "Elon says" than there was previously

    They just announced layoffs which generally bumps the stock price, the fact that it didn't definitely indicates a "wait and see" attitude

    There's also discounts announced in Canada and Mexico, indicating a surplus of cars in inventory. Can explain the US because the new incentives arrive in January, but no such explanation for the rest of North America

    I suspect as others have said, there were a bunch of people who had deposits down but with rising interest rates and cost of living crises they're taking the low risk option of not buying a new car

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,276 ✭✭✭Ubbquittious


    A good portion would be almost certainly come from ICE. There is likely still CO2 floating around that was spewed out by Hitler's Panzers heating up the planet. Growing trees is good but they need to be turned into furniture and houses. Also the carbon removal technology might improve and surpass the efficiency of trees at some point. At which point some fella will invented improved trees with genetic engineering and the cat and mouse game will start in earnest.

    Another option would be to turn the harvested CO2 into 3D printer filament and use it instead of pumping plastic out of the ground



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,884 ✭✭✭✭mfceiling


    I wonder how much Tesla make from their worldwide supercharger network?

    Also how much do they make from premium connectivity? That's a steady and increasing revenue stream every month.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    That's a tricky one to answer, it's fair to say a lot of people buy Teslas for the supercharger network, so you could say it's the most profitable charging network ever since it sells a lot of luxury cars


    Honestly, I'm not sure the supercharger network is a big money maker. They've got all the same problems regarding grid connection costs and electricity prices that all the other networks have


    In the US Tesla are happy to give away 10,000 miles of supercharging at the moment, so it can't represent a big loss for them

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,149 ✭✭✭spakman


    How many people rely on the public charger network on a regular basis?

    Most people would have a home charger, and use public chargers for long journeys - a handful of times a year for most I'd say.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    In Ireland or worldwide?

    We're not as reliant on fast charging because you tend to run out of island before you run out of range


    However in other less geographically challenged countries driving long distances is reasonably common


    Probably not a daily occurance but it's evidently enough that Tesla can justify installing a dozen chargers per site across most of Europe

    I'd say it's even more stark in the US where driving distances can be much longer


    The question to me is whether Tesla actually makes any money considering the charging is pretty cheap for Tesla owners. They definitely make some money from other cars but even so that's probably a pretty narrow profit margin

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 40,027 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    I’m not a trained tech and I’ve changed tyres and fixed punctures before. Basic task all men, especially men who drive should have. Women too.



Advertisement