FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Villain · 13-12-2022 08:28AM

ECM ensembles showing good support for back to cold air after a mild blip but lots of options there

WolfeEire · 13-12-2022 11:37AM

The UKMO MOGREPS reflects the continued 'trend' towards colder weather returning after Sunday/Monday. The 06z GFS remarkably is not shying away from the very cold overnight run 😱 Will see what the ensembles say in a while

SleetAndSnow · 13-12-2022 11:42AM

-8s back over the country by Tuesday on the GFS

Cork2021 · 13-12-2022 11:47AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119990543#Comment_119990543

so you’re saying there’s a chance

Gonzo · 13-12-2022 11:49AM

GFS 6z is more of the same, cold, frosty and dry. If this verifies December is going to be an incredibly dry month.

Longing · 13-12-2022 11:51AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119990557#Comment_119990557

Good news and bad news. It looks like the cold will return but people looking for snow I'm afraid not looking good with the high pressure eventually moving east and sitting right bang on top of us.

almostthere12 · 13-12-2022 11:53AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119990568#Comment_119990568

That's one very frosty Christmas morning if the GFS 6z verifies, the chances of getting snow in Cork are minimal no matter what way the wind blows so would definitely take that.

Cork2021 · 13-12-2022 12:02PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119990575#Comment_119990575

That’ll do

Gonzo · 13-12-2022 12:12PM

This certainly beats the typical 13C and sideways drizzle we get during Christmas, however very disappointing from a snow perspective to get an entire month cold spell without a flake of snow for most of the country. By now I would want some snow if it is to remain very cold to make things more exciting. I was preferring how things looked up to yesterday morning with a more unsettled but still cool outlook, we would have gotten some wintry precipitation at times. These charts if verified are also going to cripple some people with the fuel bills.

I put 500 litres into the tank last week and the heat has been on most of the time, I'm almost afraid to take a measurement to find out how much it has dipped since last week.

13-12-2022 12:12PM

Brief warmup then temps dropping again by the 21st.

Gonzo · 13-12-2022 12:18PM

GFS 6z operational is now out to 384 hours and we finish up still high, dry and cold and very close to pulling in the freezer. A milder blip this weekend, a 1 day wonder like a summer heat spike and then we're back into a run of very cold temperatures and endless frosty nights till the end of the month if the GFS is correct.

It's worth noting that the GFS 00z was a cold outlier at the very coldest range of the set out of alot of scatter. The 6z is most likely similar. This is no guarantee that the rest of the December is going to be bitterly cold. We could end up a more regular cool period instead.

WolfeEire · 13-12-2022 12:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119990670#Comment_119990670

I still think a mobile Atlantic pattern alternating between cold NW and milder SW is the most likely outcome, Gonzo. For next week anyway at least

pauldry · 13-12-2022 02:35PM

Ya I'd agree. 3 more days of in the freezer and then mild and cold spells , maybe a wintry day around 21st. Christmas fairly benign 5 to 7c maybe some night frost.

Brendan offaly · 13-12-2022 03:24PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119991252#Comment_119991252

I have a feeling this winter will continue with much the same theme.

Freezing cold and dry with milder interruptions from time to time.

Even a fine dry hot summer gets interrupted ever so often then returns.

Only a gut feeling not based on any scientific analysis.

Gonzo · 13-12-2022 03:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119991548#Comment_119991548

That pretty much sums up the latest CFS extended. From Saturday all the way into mid March is a mixture of mild interludes and plenty of short lived cold or very cold spells, however none of the mild or cold spells last that long. If that is the case expect plenty more frost and some wintryness over the coming months.

Brendan offaly · 13-12-2022 04:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119991718#Comment_119991718

Ye but remember last week we all expected this cold spell to end yesterday but it just keeps on going.

It will be interesting to see if the models dilute the mild intervention in the next few days.

13-12-2022 05:23PM

GFS 12Z run. Nice bit of cold over Ireland at +168 hours.

Pressure low (ish) too.

Meteorite58 · 13-12-2022 05:24PM

Mod Note : posts deleted, stay on topic please.

WolfeEire · 13-12-2022 05:24PM

A screaming northerly next Tuesday. The Greenland Express 🚆

Longing · 13-12-2022 05:28PM

Much better placement of the high on the GFS compared to the 06z run. Opens the door for a strong northerly and holds off the high. Much better even for snow. Hope the ECM is on the same track.

13-12-2022 05:32PM

+201 hours. Minus 10 uppers nearly at the North coast. Lovely FI!

almostthere12 · 13-12-2022 05:48PM

So that's the ICON, GFS and UKMO having us going back into -4 or -8 uppers by next Tuesday, also some heights building towards Greenland, very interesting to watch all of the changes over the last few days............now what will the GFS ensembles say!!

WolfeEire · 13-12-2022 06:00PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119992359#Comment_119992359

Interestingly, the ICON has Sunday's adopt less of a northeasterly track with its centre pivoting off our south coast keeping cooler uppers in place for the northern half of the island.

nacho libre · 13-12-2022 06:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119990568#Comment_119990568

You want snow Gonzo. I sense your frustration. It will be a pity if the weather does get cold again after a mild blip and we don't get snow before the New Year, but I still would be happy to have cold and frosty over wet and mild anyday. The ECM and GEM are not having it though. Although maybe the ECM this evening might move towards the GFS and UKMO. I certainly hope so.

Niall145 · 13-12-2022 06:19PM

Plenty of snow on that latest GFS run, next Tuesday/Wednesday could be interesting if it verifies!

Elmer Blooker · 13-12-2022 07:57PM

Theres always a kick in the goolies isn’t there.

Derekon2021 · 13-12-2022 08:07PM

And

PokeHerKing · 13-12-2022 08:08PM

Less said about the ECM the better 🤮

Derekon2021 · 13-12-2022 08:08PM

And that's a right kick in the balls!! A raging conveyor belt of muck......

D

Gonzo · 13-12-2022 09:09PM

No surprise tonights ECM is awful. The ECM 42 day extended forecast which is updated every Monday and Friday is now showing a mild trend between now and end of January. Of course this forecast changes every few days to something completely different but right now the ECM ensembles is doubling down on mild.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST