FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Hooter23 · 08-12-2022 06:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119971935#Comment_119971935

The thread title needs to be changed it should be called weather charts that never happen and never will

Gonzo · 08-12-2022 06:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119971960#Comment_119971960

Not everything works out all the time but some of our most interesting spells of weather both in the winter and summer get flagged here first and maintain themselves to verifying. Such examples are the December 2010 cold spell, The Beast From the East/Storm Emma in 2018 and the heat/plumes of the recent summer. The washout Autumn 2022 also verified from the very unsettled looking charts showing up in FI towards the end of August. The current start to this cold spell also got flagged here about 2 weeks ago and here we are in a cold spell. There are plenty of other examples.

tiegan · 08-12-2022 06:42PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119971960#Comment_119971960

Do you know what F in the thread title even means?

TheMilkyPirate · 08-12-2022 07:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119971960#Comment_119971960

Very good. Thanks for your input.

ECMWF has us in a cold Northeasterly at +144

murfo · 08-12-2022 07:51PM

Nice subliminal Gremlins reference

SleetAndSnow · 08-12-2022 08:20PM

Great ECM! Not only does it give snow to basically everybody (Just for fun :P)

But +192 and we are still in the cold

Heights start to push up from the south at +216, but it goes from a 1000 low to a 1020 high, so I am think its just FI at this stage, however that is December 17th and we are STILL in the cold

nacho libre · 08-12-2022 08:34PM

I wonder after that last frame of the ECM could we see a couple of days of warmer upper courtesy of a high pressure build over us then a potential reload from the north east after that? A lot of the vortex is still on holiday in Asia at this point, which is a good sign.

An Ri rua · 08-12-2022 09:10PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119971980#Comment_119971980

Yeah ok, but apart from that Gonzo, what have the Romans ever done for us??

Oneiric 3 · 08-12-2022 10:38PM

A good performance by the EC mean in fairness over the last 10 days. This is the forecast it showed 10 days ago for today:

And this is the actual pattern for today:

Minor tweaks here and there over the course of the last ten days but the broader pattern was excellently forecast by this model. I'm just sorry I didn't cache the GEFS forecast charts for the same period just to compare, but I might next time if ever there is a major pattern change in the offing.

WolfeEire · 09-12-2022 12:47AM

Have taken a look through the 30 perbutations of the GFS for next weekend (17th/18th). The balance remains tipped towards a return to milder Atlantic driven conditions. Reminds me somewhat of this coming Tuesday's battle that has been ongoing between the Azores low and the colder airmass. The latter looks, at this stage, tracking east to the south of Ireland.

The breakdown of the 30 perbutations for Sunday week (18th) at 7pm is as follows:

Cold - 11 (37%)

Mild and unsettled - 19 (63%)

Ten days away and change is inevitable but a return to milder weather is strongly favoured. Talk of what follows is somewhat pointless until we get a better grasp on where we are heading on Sunday 18th.

KingdomRushed · 09-12-2022 12:51AM

37% versus 63% would be more meaningful in relation to something in 3 days time. But with respect to Dec 18th? Might as well throw a dart at the moon.

WolfeEire · 09-12-2022 12:53AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973414#Comment_119973414

It's a FI thread. The Throwing Darts at the Moon thread you are looking for is in the SciFi Sports forum.

KingdomRushed · 09-12-2022 12:56AM

So if 63% of runs showed one thing for Dec 12th and 37% showed something else do you think that has the same statistical weight of 63% of runs versus 37% for the exact same thing except its December 18th?

Danno · 09-12-2022 12:57AM

Don't mention the 18z GFS.

WolfeEire · 09-12-2022 01:03AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973435#Comment_119973435

It's all about trends. The same applied to the weather we have today and what I and others were looking at on this thread 10 days before it. Take a look back through the thread and you will see that signals /trends picked up two weeks in advance are followed and assessed to see if they persist. In the case of the 18th, we can take a look at the GFS tomorrow and see if that trend continues. The best part about the weather in this country is that we get a hell of a lot of it and we love talking about it. You might consider a strongly worded tweet to Met Éireann and The Irish Times too.

Screenshot_2022-12-09-00-01-42-710-edit_com.twitter.android.jpg

TeaCup2 · 09-12-2022 01:53AM

Please do!

nacho libre · 09-12-2022 02:37AM

There has been a trend to lift the colder air out on some recent GFS runs. However, this could be the GFS tendency to be too progressive in FI when dealing with a block. Then again the GFS maybe right this time. I guess will we have a better idea if we see the UKMO and ECM following it. We should have a good idea about all this by Sunday. If we do lose the cold around the 18th, I remain hopeful any milder push will be temporary, especially after seeing the latest EC46 output. Of course these can change, but at present it shows a blocking pattern to the North West persisting till January.

TheMilkyPirate · 09-12-2022 09:14AM

A mild breakdown around the 18th/19th seems to be the consensus now. The period of the 12th-14th could be our best chance of snow with all models showing an Easterly/Northeasterly and 850 temps looking good. Some of the more knowledgeable posters might shed a better light on it.

EDIT: Was supposed to post this in the up to +120 thread.

Villain · 09-12-2022 09:28AM

Yes ensembles show milder air pushing in around the 18th but still some colder options on ECM. The 850 temps look to drop back in Northeast wind next week so will be interesting to see if some streamers can get going.

SleetAndSnow · 09-12-2022 09:34AM

FI really is still around 96-120hrs, just a few runs ago a few of the models showed the Azores low pushing into us and bringing 12°c temps back very quickly, and most of their ensembles agreed! Things can flip very quickly, and honestly, that's been very exciting with the model watching lately. It's been so benign for months!

Billcarson · 09-12-2022 09:36AM

I think some people can become a bit obsessed with breakdowns. I haven't looked at the models much the last day or 2. Just want to enjoy the cold spell while it's here.

Of course it is an fI thread so it's going to be discussed but don't let a breakdown ruin a cold spell for you.

Reckless Abandonment · 09-12-2022 09:50AM

Most models showing an easterly/North easterly flow for at time on Sunday and Tuesday so hopefully the Irish sea can deliver.

esposito · 09-12-2022 10:25AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973871#Comment_119973871

Well said Bill. Let’s enjoy this cold spell in December!

pauldry · 09-12-2022 10:26AM

Breakdown begins on December 17th according to GFS but freezer continues on December 17th according to ECM so it's either going to be freezing or mild.

Great!

Hope ECM wins but with 3000 miles of even a shut down Atlantic the best we can hope is only the Southwest gets mild and the freezer pushes it back.

At least we get plenty of snow between now and then hopefully.

PokeHerKing · 09-12-2022 10:55AM

The breakdown of the current cold spell is in FI. That's as good as it gets if you ask me!

I've a few cm's of snow out my back and it's -3 in glorious sunshine. Enjoy it folks!

JCX BXC · 09-12-2022 11:15AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119974132#Comment_119974132

Exactly!

Normally we're looking at these cold spells in FI and they rarely come to pass, now that this cold is almost guaranteed to last the next 5 days and mild outcomes are all out in FI, it's a great situation to be in.

nacho libre · 09-12-2022 11:46AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973871#Comment_119973871

I'm going to heed this advice. The landscape looks fantastic covered in white, it's not snow but it's the next best thing. I'm going to take a break from the models for a while to just enjoy the cold for the next few days.

John.Icy · 09-12-2022 11:52AM

TBH I don't think ~~policing~~ worrying about discussion of breakdowns or milder air on the charts is the way to go. It's what Netweather do and only the snow bunnies use the model thread because every other thought is shot down, and with that you get an echo chamber of BOOM and STONKING all winter and a flake of snow may never drop but they'll always find some MJO PQRTWS signal in the teleconnections to prove the charts are wrong. Dissenting voices not allowed.

You can enjoy the current cold spell and also be able to critically analyse model output no matter what that shows, humans are capable of doing the two things at once without being called negative, miserable or a pessimist - or without countless posts on here that rack up in a normal winter people saying the same as the above. I'm absolutely LOVING the wintery scene outside today. But I have eyes also and can see the growing consensus currently on the output.

If we are allowed to endlessly discuss cold and snowy charts in FI that might not happen then, then its silly to try control the same thing when it comes to mild. A trend is a trend, even if it's not always a friend.

I do get the sentiment for the event thread if people are in there talking about breakdowns when its far away, but sorry - a technical thread is a technical thread so if it's on the charts, leave people alone to discuss. My two pence.

EDIT: Policing is a strong word! 😁

Gonzo · 09-12-2022 12:00PM

The return to mild weather is well supported indeed for the 18th/19th of December and while it's deep out in FI, it is totally relevant to the discussion on this thread as we discuss all sorts of weather events and changes here. The return to mild around that date could get delayed so it's always good to keep an eye on things.

WolfeEire · 09-12-2022 12:04PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119974407#Comment_119974407

Yes, the chopping and changing thereafter is crazy too. A scandi high currently showing on GFS control run for 23rd Dec. Agreed though. The trend is for a milder 'interlude' from 18th/19th.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Comments

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST