FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Thanks a lot! I figured that they’re so wound up by the possibility of cold weather (snow!) that I may aswell use it to help them learn a few bits and pieces about where it’ll come from, or more likely here in Waterford, why it didn’t ☺️

1963, the big freeze, just started on BBC 4

No it isn't but once in a blocking scenario like this, it can be tough to get out unless there's some significant forcing as you know. Even in 2010-11 with the strong upper stratospheric polar vortex, the blocking from December still carried on into much of January for instance resulting in another colder than average month across the nation despite the so-called cold never returning after the new year that people have a tendency to say. It wasn't until the first week of February we seen the blocking well and truly go away.

We've seen the odd GFS FI run for a good few days now flirt with the idea of a reinvigoration of heights over Scandinavia rather than just a one-off. Now whether those heights would develop into a proper retrograding blocking feature bringing in easterly winds is always fought with danger as we know how fickle Scandi highs are.

I've seen a fair amount of runs this rollercoaster chase showing a west based -NAO with that Atlantic low that has been causing headaches. I'd rather not think of that disgusting travesty 😂

I think we have enough uncertainty to content with ignoring that in all honesty man! Least there has been more clarity this evening with the runs to day 10 generally speaking but still lots of small differences...

hah,yes, that's true we have enough of a headache concerning the Azore Low without throwing in more complications. By the way what are the verification stats for the GEM? It seems to have not wobbled as much as the GFS and ECM during this period

Last set of stats I saw, GEM was slightly ahead on the 30-day rolling verification stats of the GFS @ Day 5. ECM -> UKMO -> GEM -> GFS.

However in the more recent data points on the graph, GFS was catching up and was top of the pack on the most recent data point, so not to say it's still in third. I never know where to find them again, always have to wait to see them on Netweather! In general though, GEM is frequently feasting at the same table as the big 3 - even if some wouldn't recognise it as so

The GEM is the Andy Murray of weather models.

EDIT:

Speaking of the devil...latest below. GEM remaining in 3rd.

latest ECM ensembles show good support for cold to last up to 18th. The spike in precip for Carlow shows risk of low bringing some precip but spread shows how uncertain it is.

MTs forecast is very mute! Again I suppose the models are all over the place

All models overnight now agree on the low sliding under and cold lasting until around the 18th. Will we see much snow is now the question.

Not very optimistic on any prolonged cold is our MT. Far from it, wet mild muck for Christmas. Oh well...onto the next roller coaster in January probably.

10 days, possibly more, of cold is prolonged should it happen . Most of our cold spells last for a few days at most. So given our locale his view could well be right, but it's not a forgone conclusion either. It maybe as per the GFS we get milder conditions for a time before a possible Scandi high. Although if its orientation is not right we won't get colder weather.

I wouldn't put much faith in it. It was the 14th with the spike on the GFS, then the 15th, now it's the 16-17th, keeps being pushed back out!

The ECM was also a an outlier on the 15th or so if you follow the green line in comparison to the other ensembles, but it is still below 0 for Cork anyway.

Also just a quick question for any one more experienced here, I know precip charts are generally very bad but they *always* seem to show the entire country covered in snow, except for the sliver that is cork city and its coast (not the county or West cork, similar to the image below!) Is there are general reason for that, uppers are the same as the rest of the county lol. Assuming it's just the low resolution?

Fairly good agreement now for the low to slide South of us, the finer details will be very interesting to follow. A reload of cold around the 14th lasting until the 18th at least.

The Azores low has basically given up on the GFS 6z, Cold all the way to Spain now

Edit: Make that Northern Africa? Thats a change

Latest GFS keeps the cold going and develops streamers in the east from Tuesday at +114. Borderline FI.

Now it decides to just blast the block with another blow, GFS loves to blow up these lows. Another possible outcome but honestly GFS is on a week long bender and we need it to get off the drink and sober up.