FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Villain · 07-12-2022 08:26AM

A big drop back in 850 temps on this morning ECM ensembles with OP having a lot of support!

nacho libre · 07-12-2022 08:38AM

The GFS playing grinch this morning by bringing milder air back in, it seems to have a lot of support from its members. So I don't think we can totally discount it, however it's encouraging the ECM has flipped and is showing the cold continuing till at least the 15th. The UKMO and GEM keep the cold going too.

adocholiday · 07-12-2022 09:39AM

Seeing lots of discussion about the low potentially bringing milder air but nothing about the impact. Would such a rapidly deepening low not be a significant event of its own if it were to hit, bringing wind and rain with it or even be a named storm?

SleetAndSnow · 07-12-2022 09:44AM

Still a huge amount of spread on the ECMWF, but I think there are more ensembles following the control and the OP as well. However, a thing to note is that even though there are height rises, they all seem to drop back down below the mean at some point meaning the heights won't be very long winded

WolfeEire · 07-12-2022 10:21AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119966288#Comment_119966288

The support for a milder push next Tuesday certainly is reduced in the 0z run (top) compared to the 12z run (bottom)

The UKMO also keeps the low further south showing a slider low.

The overnight GFS is overwhelmingly veering towards an end to the cold spell around the same period.

The outlook remains far from resolved.

Villain · 07-12-2022 10:41AM

Latest guidance on potential tropical storm in Atlantic, path fairly tight until end. This is going to be interesting to watch but each run will flip flop for a few days so expect big changes and lots of toys out of prams. The only funny thing about that is when they have to pick the toys up and put them back into the pram 😂

odyboody · 07-12-2022 11:41AM

I think a lot of people miss the idea that model watching is very different to weather forecasting.

If we lived in FI land, 10 days out, sure we would have had epic winters for as long as I can remember.

FI charts are for fun.

For a forecast go to a reputable forecast organization

and remember most of the apps on phones are directly from models with no human sensible input included

TheMilkyPirate · 07-12-2022 11:45AM

Anyone else having trouble with Meteociel? Seems to be stuck halfway through the 00z

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 07-12-2022 11:47AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119966632#Comment_119966632

Yeah, had to go to WetterZentrale

But that site is slow as hell !

WolfeEire · 07-12-2022 11:48AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119966632#Comment_119966632

Yep. Same here. Netweather is working though

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs

bazlers · 07-12-2022 11:49AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119966441#Comment_119966441

With a bit a bit of look Villian it might end up in the bay of Biscay. Looks to be arcing that way for now anyhow.

Danno · 07-12-2022 11:56AM

The 06Z GFS Operational really beefs up the Atlantic after mid-week next week obliterating the cold pool.

Will be interesting to see if it is out on it's own with this run.

07-12-2022 01:17PM

GFS 6Z ensembles for 850 temps. Still going a bit mad after the 13th or so. This low pressure system out in the Atlantic is causing chaos.

07-12-2022 01:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119966632#Comment_119966632

Still causing trouble. Blank screens for the GFS 6Z.

BLIZZARD7 · 07-12-2022 02:48PM

GEFS insistent on the cold spell ending next week, ECM and Mogreps ensembles are equally sure of it continuing. Could be the weekend before this is properly resolved. I still think the low will disrupt and slide south of us into northern France.

Thats a very solid cold signal from the MOGREPS, one of the models is very wrong about next week.

cheezums · 07-12-2022 03:37PM

What chance of that atlantic low meeting our cold front and dumping a shed load of sneachta on us?

WolfeEire · 07-12-2022 03:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119967336#Comment_119967336

I noticed how MOGREPS had a few solutions showing the low dragging in much milder air in the 0z run but they are gone now

Larbre34 · 07-12-2022 03:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119967569#Comment_119967569

The models are all over the place on that.

If you're thinking a repeat of a Storm Emma scenario, I would say, right now 15%, 20% absolute tops.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 07-12-2022 04:36PM

The ICON 12z is great craic !

SleetAndSnow · 07-12-2022 04:50PM

Loving the icon 12

Even has the greenland high reloading! The azores low is weaker as well, which I expected would happen when the models got closer to the formation date, but we will see if the other models agree.

Things could be firming up as well. Very consistent and the vortex is still firmly over Asia, which is good for more prolonged cold / reloading.

ECM00Z - very similar.

ICON 12Z

Now if only the GFS came back onboard

Villain · 07-12-2022 04:54PM

ICON 12Z is an interesting start to the 12z runs and ends very nicely in FI

Kermit.de.frog · 07-12-2022 04:59PM

haha

SleetAndSnow · 07-12-2022 05:04PM

EDIT: I just realized these are 96hrs and not FI. Oops Thats scary that this low is no longer in FI lol

GFS 12z rolling out... and all I can say is... dartboard low still. I Just don't believe it.

Saw this UKMO chart on netweather and it just looks more realistic... it even has half a love heart over the UK&Ire <3

TheMilkyPirate · 07-12-2022 05:09PM

Atlantic low weaker and further west at +132 on the 12z GFS. Also much better heights over Greenland/Iceland. Hoping for a good run

Gonzo · 07-12-2022 05:14PM

CFS has a raging blizzard around 19th of December with uppers close to -10C into Leinster, unlikely to happen but fun to see on the model.

The GFS is horrible at the moment but all the other models are showing a decent shot of maintaining cold weather right up to December 20th.

CirrusBusiness · 07-12-2022 05:15PM

Very interesting to see the UK MET going for a 70% chance for cold to win out vs the incoming Low. (Followed by a very cold NE'erly with increased wintry precipitation. Still a chance the incoming Low could give a dumping of snow to the southern 3rd of the country if it gets close and tracks east.

Villain · 07-12-2022 05:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119968002#Comment_119968002

Thats 6z Gonzo

Gonzo · 07-12-2022 05:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119968008#Comment_119968008

that's currently the latest run from the CFS just throwing that chart up for fun. The CFS 12z will rollout soon and will probably be very different. In reality I think it could be Sunday before we really know what is happening next week and if that low stays to our south things may start to get alot more interesting.

TheMilkyPirate · 07-12-2022 05:30PM

Big differences between the UK met and GFS at +144. Another couple of days before this is nailed down.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 07-12-2022 05:33PM

A good ECM needed

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST