FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

You only recently said Sunday Night it would be 10°c! Have you changed your mind? Will you suddenly change your mind about this again?

That glass ball you're using for your predictions is off a bit I'd say.

Does it bring frontal snow??

Rain according to the ECM this evening, uppers are too mild. Clearly the models are having trouble resolving what this Azores Low is going to do, although the agreement towards milder solutions from ECM and UKMO is notable.

I don't think we will know what's going to happen for another few days. All the models are struggling with the Azores low but it's making great model watching and I'm looking forwards to the ups and down of the next few days.

It was the same a few days ago! Plenty of flipping and flopping to go!

Latest ECM ensembles show a big increase in the number of milder members beyond the 12th but a whole lot of options there so really impossible to forecast beyond Monday at present.

More runs needed really, a total flip at 144 hours and before even by the ECM compared to this morning. FI really is at about 80-90Hrs atm. Really all depends on that low, and I personally think the models are forecasting it to be stronger then it actually is.

Back in business with the GFS 6z, the low heads north before sliding east under the block, lol fully expecting the next run to throw up another scenario again, this is far from resolved I'd say.

18z GFS is no ECM 12z anyway. This little spin off low which is gaining some momentum plays ball and does not barrel into us. So cool-cold wins out. By Day 10 the lack of heights to our north look to have the death knells ringing for this cold phase - though so far out not worth a second look.

You'd wonder how late in the day this is gonna make it in terms of resolution? There's no way this is suddenly resolved with cross-model support by tomorrow...surely. Especially if we are dealing with both a big Azores LP and a spin off.

Much better from the 18z GFS. Secondary low slides under and sets up an easterly/north easterly. Possibly a cold outlier but still all to play for.

Not bad..

I'll take perturbation 24 please

The Met Éireann monthly outlook is unusually but understandably devoid of specifics on the outlook from next week onwards. The reference to "snow or rain" next week is about right. Who knows 😄

MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 06 DECEMBER 2022

Week 1 (Friday 09 December to Thursday 15 December)

A very cold but dry signal dominates the forecast for the week beginning Friday 9th. A low pressure anomaly from the south, not associated with frontal passages, may increase risk of showers on the Irish Sea. Sea surface temperatures remain elevated increasing convection on coasts. Risk of heavy showers with hail making inroads on to coasts.

Week 2 (Friday 16 December to Thursday 22 December)

A weak low pressure signal for week two brings a slightly elevated risk of rain or snow. A cold anomaly might suggest frozen precipitation is likely, particularly over hills and mountains.

Week 3 (Friday 23 December to Thursday 29 December)

Weak high pressure signal from the north for week three with associated low precipitation levels. Signal remains on the cold side of normal but not dramatically so.

Week 4 (Friday 30 December to Thursday 05 January)

Weak high pressure signal for week four with associated low precipitation levels. Climatological norms forecast otherwise.

Much better ECM at 168 this morning

Let's see what the ensembles look like