Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

1470471473475476914

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,907 ✭✭✭Villa05


    I know what was said, I'm not sure what it means

    Does occupancy = people live there or that someone is paying the rent but no one is necessarily living there ie a MNC paying a lease in anticipation of demand that has not materialised



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    As I said, REITs need cash so have to actually fill up their rentals. Whereas, KW, Greystar etc (Capital Dock, Clancy Quay, Dublin Landings) are not in a rush to drop rent as it then means the value of the building, based on the rental yield, dropping.

    On the occupancy point, they would simply hold off a few apartments from the market and claim that, out of the apartments they actually have available for rent, 98% are occupied. But they have no info on what this actually means. It definitely doesn't mean 98% of all apartments in a particular building are occupied, it is almost certainly qualified. All you have to do is walk around the docklands in the evening and see the empty apartments.

    Post edited by jimmybobbyschweiz on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Do you do a lot of walking around the docks in Dublin now your living in Switzerland



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭fergus1001


    i have walked around the dockland say 6 months ago and i also seen the no lights on in half of the appartments in that KW spot, it is fishy to me



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,357 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Most Young lads traveling are out to experience something not to necessarily make money. Any lads that has come from construction probably has a good ball of money saved.

    Nephew is in his final year as an apprentice he is watching to go next year to eighteen months to Australia and/ or NZ.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,084 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    The great thing is that they can really enjoy themselves yet still come home with plenty saved.

    I think New Zealand, Austrailia and Canada look very open to this comming downturn. Property markets taking a big hit over there, its funny any of the places that escaped the last crash without much of a bang seem to be doing alot worse this time around.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,357 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    I think the same. Never been to Canada but houses in NZ or Australia bear no relation to Irish houses.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    I'm not that long over, it was only in August I would've been wandering around and with supply of rentals up 67% since then, and thousands of blue haired tech geeks no longer scootering around, I can imagine not much has changed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,188 ✭✭✭wassie


    No only that, construction workers can find work in the resources and mining sectors also.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 171 ✭✭Beigepaint


    Is there a tech exodus?



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,084 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Wouldn't go so far as call it an exodus yet, but we may be on the cusp of it alright. Personally when the lower earning reports come through for Q1 2023 then we may see evening more destructive shedding of share prices, then we may see more layoffs again in tech purely my thoughts.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,925 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    There any stats on how many tech workers are in Dublin on paper but in reality are based well outside the Pale if not the country? I suspect that as far as property is concerned a tech exodus has already been and gone..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 132 ✭✭AySeeDoubleYeh


    The real question is why aren't we calling it a 'texodus'?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    I think WFH during the pandemic lead to quite a lot of people moving abroad with no intention of coming back. The empty apartments in prime areas like the Docklands isn't a post-covid phenomenon, we all saw the lights off during covid. They were never coming back because the housing crisis was so severe pre-covid with rents soaring every year and poor value for your money as well as huge struggles to obtain an apartment.

    Don't anyone be fooled into thinking the tech slowdown has resulted in empty apartments; the housing crisis itself is the reason for the empty apartments and wfh during covid was a release valve for many workers to get out of the rental system which they gladly took.

    Separately;

    Commercial Property Crash

    I was reading more over the weekend on the commercial (office sector in particular) sector slowdown and it is quite clear there will be a big crash in office values and rents; we will end up with ghost estates of empty offices, this is undeniable at this stage. It is not just about the top of the market vacating and reducing their footprint, but the mid-level market as well, as leases are not being renewed in a "low hanging fruit" effort to cut costs. The big issue with commercial property is that there is no way in hell the State can step in to bail out commercial landlords so they are utterly exposed to the perfect storm of rising interest rates and reduced demand. The Blackstone REIT imposing its redemption gate is just the tip of the iceberg and they even have a large portfolio of housing (which apparently is in great demand). Small side note: there is a link between rising interest rates and illiquidity pockets appearing in markets; the property fund gates and collapse of certain crypto exchanges are absolutely linked from the drying up of liquidity.

    Funnily enough, it is only after the horse has bolted the Central Bank has decided it should do something, seeking to impose leverage limits on funds taking exposure to Irish commercial property but giving existing funds 5 years to comply. As usual, way too late to the party.

    And remember; right before covid, Irish and UK property funds suspended redemptions due to runs on the funds. If your pension is still getting exposure to commercial property now; reduce the exposure for a while!




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals



    These apartments are still for sale on Daft, 800 or 900k for a 1-bed from memory. Would this be considered a bulding defect or are the owners being cranks?


    Owners of ‘uninhabitable’ D4 apartments suing developers over excessive heat

    Five owners of Lansdowne Place apartments in Ballsbridge claim they have to endure temperatures of close to 30 degrees





    Seperately, you gotaa love the marketers!


    Chartered Land started selling Lansdowne Place in 2017, describing the upscale residential apartment scheme as “comparable only to the lifestyle standards of the very best Manhattan residences overlooking Central Park, New York”.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    To be fair, if whoever they rent it too is keeping it empty, that is not their concern. But I do know of somone who rented an apartment to the council and the council waited almost a year before they put a horror show of a family into it. They now spend all day and all night ruining the lives of the other people living around them. but I digress - the council do indeed keep places empty for long periods.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    When you have the vested interests whinging in the national news, it is probably a good measure for the market, as a general rule. The whinging in this article shows that this tax will force land to be used quicker and efficiently. The argument against it RZLT are that it effectively makes building more expensive, but this is only the case where the building is taking too long which is something the author ignores; the precise intention with it!

    There are many home builders who have secured planning permissions at great cost but given the passage of time between site acquisition and securing permission the project is no longer viable, due to inflation in construction costs. It seems unfair to impose a tax on these sites simply because they cannot secure funding to deliver the housing that was planned in good faith.

    That's a bit pathetic; "unfair" for the poor large landowners is not a good reason to hit them with a tax for not using permission.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24 kerrybyrne


    Has anyone seen any new build reducing their prices? Theres a few around us that are nice but all are priced over the HTB threshold.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,128 ✭✭✭This is it


    With inflation I can't see new builds dropping any time soon. Small drops in some second hand houses but I can still see others going 15% over asking for small 3 bed semi



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,925 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    @jimmybobbyschweiz

    Don't anyone be fooled into thinking the tech slowdown has resulted in empty apartments; the housing crisis itself is the reason for the empty apartments and wfh during covid was a release valve for many workers to get out of the rental system which they gladly took.

    Yep. Way back in 2018 I was hearing stories of Dublin companies having a high attrition rate of workers giving up on Dublin accommodation and resigning. Pandemic-era WFH simply forced the issue with a lot of people at the same time.



  • Posts: 4,549 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Iv a colleague who bought an A rated house in the last few years.

    He mentioned at lunch a few days ago they they'd bought a small air conditioner to keep the kids bedroom cool. LOL

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Posts: 617 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Too much heat is every bit as uncomfortable as too much cold.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    Ireland, especially on the east coast, does not get cold. It is rare to see the mercury go below 5 degrees celcius at night even in the darkest winter night and day time temperatures are pretty much always at least 10 degrees. There is effectively an 8 month summer as well so excellent insulation tends to be more of a curse than a blessing in my experience, resulting in incredibly hot and stuffy dwellings most of the time. Houses need to be built with air filtering/conditioning more than insulation these days.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,183 ✭✭✭JohnnyChimpo


    It's going to be below zero tonight, and all this week, and there's several months of winter to come.


    Clearly we have to build while being mindful of heat gain from insolation, and incorporate brise-soleils and similar architectural features on our glass boxes as well as effective ventilation and cooling. But saying that Irish houses also don't also acutely need insulation is not correct.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,983 ✭✭✭accensi0n


    Rare? It drops below 5 degrees pretty much every day across January and February.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    Not during the day, where it barely drops below 5 degrees (the east of Ireland is where am I talking about). Dublin has a warm and temperate climate so housing should be more appreciative of the need for cooling, not warming.

    This is a graph showing the average, day and night combined, temperature in Dublin during the year.


    Untitled Image




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    This is an exceptional week, hence the weather warnings, but it is by no means normal in the east of the country to have such cold temperatures at any time of the year, let alone for a month or two. In fact, the last few years we have experienced basically a 7/8 month summer from May to November with warm temperatures. Yet, housing seems to be focused mainly on heat retention and not on ensuring cool, pleasant temperatures. With climate change anticipated to get worse and temperatures generally to keep rising, housing in the east of the country should be built with this in mind.



  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,224 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    That is the average temperature. It will fluctuate throughout the month and throughout the day. At points in the day it will be above 5 degrees and at other points it will be below 5 degrees. For example, the next week Dublin will be below 5 degrees pretty much all day. However the average temperature for the month can still be above 5 degrees/



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,983 ✭✭✭accensi0n


    That's not what you said and what I replied to though, now you've shifted to talking about something else.

    You said this:

    "It is rare to see the mercury go below 5 degrees celcius at night even in the darkest winter night"



Advertisement