FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

I see a whole lot more than a 2-3 day cold spell, the ensemble mean is far below average. The op is a warm outlier towards the end and the control is a cold outlier at the end- showing us what happens if that sub tropical low dives south east. I’d be keeping an eye to our North East for mid-month. 👀

The teleconnections are all solid and supportive of an extended spell, uncertainty is very high at the moment though, and will continue that way until the models get to grips with that low to our South West. I would bet the models will eventually flatten and elongate this low into Europe, many op runs will continue to blow it up in the meantime though.

ECM is a beauty @ +120hrs

Yes, usually such systems are corrected south in the end when coming up against colder air, and the GFS, as you indicate, shows the cold spell could be around for a while, especially if the Greenland high makes move towards Scandinavia then perhaps towards mid month it could lead to a Beasterly.Then again it would not surprise if we do get a milder interlude, but i think we would all take that if what followed was the Siberian snow train making its way towards us

I like, much better uppers. Previously to this run i would have expected a slushy mess, but now could be something a little special if it holds form.

ECM not splitting up the cold pool between Europe and Asia, keeping it colder and stronger for longer. Very good run so far

Agree with Gonzo. Nearer term Thursday potentially a day to watch for a more organised band of snow moving south. It's more uncertain for after that with very narrow margins between deeper cold and something more benign.

This time tomorrow I'm thinking we'll have more confidence in how things might unfold and thread time! Hopefully😆

Today was a near perfect winter's day. Very, almost ominously, dull (but in a nice way) and very dry with that sort of crispy, feel good outdoor smell that was far more common in my youth. I'll gladly sacrifice any snow or even frost in favour of weather like this and hopefully more of it to come in the near future.

I don't think there is a bias towards him, but he's always biased himself regarding cold potential in winter. He more often than not overeggs the pie in my opinion.

Sometimes too you have to give credit where credits due, I know it's all about opinions and forecasting for Ireland is extremely tricky.

Like a broken clock, he's bound to be right now and again. In general he's just a ramper with emptiness behind it.

Anyway as the cold is more or less guaranteed maybe time to look at snow chances. For my location we don't do great, Northern counties look best favoured and surely Dublin region will come into the mix. In general its looking dry a lot of the time but bitterly cold. After the last few weeks potential ice days will come as quite a shock. Also of course roads and fields are saturated and with them freezing over could make back road driving quite dangerous!

A lot of talk about 2010 but lest not forget Storm Emma in 2018 I think which delivered much more in the way of snow for Cork. Of course it was 1st March so the drip drip was always on our mind. You can't beat a cold spell in Dec/Jan

Who's he? That the post man from donegal or what

Would ye all not have anything better to do on a Saturday night other than giving some American self-claimed prophetic "weather guru" more attention?

Get your priorities straight. The 18Z GFS is rolling out.

18z spruces up the cold around the Day 5 mark, next Thursday, as that front/precip approaches from the north. Could be v.snowy in the northern half of the country.

The storm out in the Atlantic is an absolute monster (edit: though definitely overcooked on the 18z!...surely). Until the models come to grips with what it will do, there will be plenty of chopping and changing. It may help us, it may prolong the cold if slides harmlessly into France and keeps us with chilly E/NE winds, maybe it will stall and stay put well out of the way...or it could push too far north and ruin it all! Definitely no hype from me just yet in terms of a long spell, too much to nail down before that. Good shot of a snowy period before that though into next Thursday!

Also shout out to the mods. A tireless task, with their own spare time - especially when it's getting busy. I'd be up the walls with grown adults (I assume!) not being able to comprehend the frequent simple requests to keep her technical in the relevant threads.